Full employment in an economy is when all available workers who want to work are employed, and the unemployment rate is 0%. https://t.co/aMEdRlmoEg ...

You know, from our standpoint, what I can say is that the the US economy is in solid shape. Inflation has come down. The unemployment rate remains at 4.2%.As I mentioned, real wages are moving up. It's a it's a good uh job creation is at a healthy level. Unemployment, again, as I said, low labor force participation in a good place.So, and what we're waiting for to reduce rates is is to understand what will happen with with really the tariff inflation. And uh there's a lot of uncertainty about that. Every fo ...

Inflation Outlook - The Fed acknowledges upside risks to inflation, with base effects likely to worsen inflation numbers in upcoming meetings and potentially by year-end [3][4][5] - Crude oil price increases of $10, representing a 20% rise, could add approximately 04 percentage points to the headline CPI if sustained [5][6] - Tariffs are viewed as inflationary by Powell, potentially leading to margin compression and lowered earnings estimates [6][7] - The bond market anticipates the Fed will cut rates even if inflation remains above 3% between now and year-end [9] Monetary Policy & Employment - The Fed's dual mandate faces increasing tensions, potentially requiring a choice between fighting rising unemployment and fighting rising inflation [7] - The market believes the Fed is more likely to prioritize addressing rising unemployment over fighting inflation, even if inflation is moderately above 3% [8][14] - No discussion of rate hikes suggests a consensus within the Fed that the next move in rates will be lower [14] Recession Indicators - A one-year moving average of the twos 10's yield curve turning positive has historically preceded recessions and is currently above its 12-month moving average [9] - The U3 unemployment rate crossing above its three-year moving average has historically signaled the front end of a recession, which has already occurred but is not yet accelerating [10] - Rising continuing claims foreshadow a potential increase in the U3 unemployment rate [11][12] Market Dynamics - The bond market is signaling expectations of rate cuts through a steepening yield curve, with long rates rising more substantially than short-term rates [8][9] - The yield curve steepening is a trend that is expected to continue, with the Fed likely to keep pressure lower on short-term interest rates [13]

>> Mark. Mark. Thank you.>> Chairman Powell. Mark Hamrick with bank rate. What is the view about the growing amount of slack in the job market, including the softening in payrolls, the forecast of a modest rise in the unemployment rate and the ability of workers to demand wage hikes or not.In this environment where you have inflation surging. >> I don't you don't see you don't really see unemployment going up. You don't see increased slack, really.I mean, at the margin, remember you're at 4.2% unemployment. ...

16 June 2025 | 2:29AM EDT US Economics Analyst June FOMC Preview: A Cautious Take on Tariffs (Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-31 ...