Headline of the day: Unemployment rate.Yes, it has hit the highest level since November '21.It has gone up from 4.0% in February '25 to 4.6% now.That's not great, and that's why the FED is entirely focused on activating the economy internally.That's obviously bullish for scarce assets, as the money printer is inevitably going to be fired on and that's going to activate the bull run on $BTC.In the short term?Sure, we'll see more uncertainty as recession fears will start to fire up some more.Core charts to fo ...

Before when we were bringing you on uh we were talking to you about some of that delayed data that's coming up later today. The October November jobs report. The combination of that we're looking at potentially the estimate at least 50,000 jobs added unemployment ticking up to 4 and a.5% highest level since October of 2021.I want to ask you does that matter to the markets. Does it matter to the Fed when we know there's going to be a lot of twist and turns before that next Fed meeting. Well, there'll definit ...

Good morning,Big day on the horizon in terms of macroeconomic data!Unemployment rate & PMI data.The first big day for the markets & $BTC.Pleased to see that we haven’t corrected much more, but #Bitcoin clearly needs to break through the $88K level. ...

Market Overview - Wall Street is experiencing a decline at the start of a week filled with economic reports that could influence interest rates and stock prices, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 137 points or 0.3% [1] - Technology stocks, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector, are weighing heavily on the market following significant fluctuations last week [2] Company Performance - Nvidia, a key player in the AI boom, saw its stock rise 1.7%, helping to cushion losses in the S&P 500 after a 4.1% drop last week [2] - Oracle's stock fell another 1.9% following a 12.7% decline last week, marking its worst performance in over seven years [3] - Broadcom's stock decreased by 5.1% [3] Industry Insights - Concerns are growing in the AI sector regarding whether the substantial investments in chips and data centers will yield sufficient profits and productivity [4] - The upcoming economic reports, particularly the jobs report and inflation data, are critical as they will inform the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates [5][6] Economic Indicators - Economists anticipate that the jobs report for November will show an addition of 40,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to be at 4.4%, near its highest level since 2021 [5][9] - The Federal Reserve is in a challenging position, needing to balance the impacts of a slowing job market and high inflation [6][7] Market Reactions - There is a prevailing hope on Wall Street for a slight weakening in the job market to prompt the Fed to lower interest rates without triggering a recession [7] - Treasury yields have eased, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury falling to 4.18% from 4.19% [10] Bankruptcy News - iRobot's shares plummeted 72.6% after the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, indicating potential total loss for stockholders [11] Global Market Trends - Internationally, indexes in Europe rose while Asian markets faced declines, with Hong Kong and Shanghai indexes falling 1.3% and 0.6% respectively due to weak investment signals in China [12]

Core Viewpoint - The current 10-year yield is at 4.19%, influenced by recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, indicating a cautious approach towards interest rate cuts and a focus on labor market conditions rather than inflation [1][2][5]. Federal Reserve Insights - Fed officials have expressed mixed views, with some dissenting on rate cuts, highlighting uncertainty in the economic outlook [2][4]. - Philadelphia Fed President Pollson emphasizes the labor market's importance over inflation, while Chicago's Goulsby shows discomfort with the pace of rate cuts [3][4][7]. - The Fed is expected to adopt a "wait and see" approach, particularly in light of upcoming labor market data [5][6]. Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The upcoming jobs report is anticipated to significantly influence market expectations regarding future rate cuts, especially if it shows weaker-than-expected results [8][10]. - The unemployment rate remains low by historical standards, with a current rate around 4.4% to 4.5%, which is considered close to full employment [11][12]. Fixed Income Market Outlook - The fixed income market has performed well this year, with income returns being a significant driver, although future income returns may decrease due to lower yields [13][15]. - High-quality bonds are expected to see price appreciation in 2026, driven by potential Fed rate cuts, while riskier assets may not benefit similarly due to elevated default rates [16][17].

And for more on that, I want to welcome into the program Joe Leavia, counselor to Treasury Secretary Bessett. Joe, thanks so much for joining me. Always great to see you.>> Thank you. Thank you. >> The Fed yesterday increased their outlook for the economy next year.They now see GDP growth of 2.3%. Fed Chair Powell said that he thinks that any price increases from tariffs could peak in the first quarter. where they see inflation falling to 2.5% next year, but the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.4% ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has increased its GDP growth forecast for next year to 2.3% and expects inflation to fall to 2.5% while maintaining an unemployment rate of 4.4% [2][4] - The Atlanta Fed reports a growth rate of 3% for the current quarter, following a 3.8% growth in the second quarter [2][3] - The economy is performing better when excluding federal spending, with growth estimated at 4.5% in the second quarter [3] Productivity and Tax Policies - Current productivity trends and tax policies, referred to as "Trumpomics," are expected to drive faster economic growth than the Fed's forecast [4][5] - The administration anticipates tax refunds of $1,000 to $2,000 per household next year, which could stimulate demand [6] Interest Rates and Financial Markets - The Fed has cut rates three times since September, but the current yield on the 10-year Treasury is around 4.1%, indicating a restrictive policy environment [9][10] - The Treasury is implementing policies to restore fiscal sanity and reduce budget deficits, which is expected to lead to lower interest rates and mortgage rates [12][15] Financial Stability Oversight - Proposed changes to the Financial Stability Oversight Council aim to reduce regulatory burdens on the banking system, facilitating credit flow to small businesses [16][17] - The goal is to enhance economic growth and improve wage rates by ensuring that credit is accessible to the backbone of the economy, small businesses [17][18]

talking about the economy and maybe what the Fed's going to do. Uh we're going to talk about that, the markets, uh and everything else. Want to bring in David Servos.He is chief market strategist at Jeffre, a CNBC contributor. Uh good morning to you. We'll talk to Austin Goldby later.I'm curious what you thought of what you heard earlier this week from the Federal Reserve and uh what you think it portends and were you surprised that the equity markets actually moved up on the back of this news. You [clears ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is experiencing significant shifts in its stance, with members oscillating between hawkish and dovish positions, leading to confusion about monetary policy direction [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Inflation is reportedly decreasing, and the unemployment rate is also declining, with GDP growth surprising analysts by rising from 1.8% to 2.3% [2][3]. Labor Market - There is optimism regarding the cessation of layoffs, which is viewed positively as it aligns with the goal of stabilizing the labor market [3]. Bond Market Dynamics - Despite economic data suggesting a robust economy, bond yields have not reacted as expected, indicating that large investors may be influencing market conditions [4][5]. Political Influence on Monetary Policy - The relationship between the Federal Reserve and the White House is perceived to be increasingly political, with concerns that this may affect the independence of monetary policy decisions [9][10]. Leadership and Governance - There is a call for a change in leadership within the FOMC, emphasizing that the committee has the authority to elect its chair, which could differ from the president's nomination [6][7][8].

Economic Outlook - The forecast suggests an optimistic outlook for next year due to additional GDP growth, easing inflation, and a steady unemployment rate [1] - Outside forecasts also indicate a pickup in growth [2] - Consumer spending has been resilient, contributing to the growth [2][4] - AI spending on data centers and related areas has been supporting business investment [2][4] - Fiscal policy is expected to be supportive [4] Growth Expectations - The baseline expectation for next year is a pickup in growth from the current 1.7% [3] - The SCP median growth is 1.7% for this year and 2.3% for next year [3] - Adjusting for the shutdown, the growth would be 1.9% and 2.1% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [3]