Core Viewpoint - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that there is potential for further interest rate adjustments in the near term, primarily due to labor market weaknesses overshadowing inflation concerns, which has led traders to increase their expectations for a quarter-point cut at the Fed's December meeting [1][4][13]. Interest Rate Outlook - Williams stated that monetary policy is currently "modestly restrictive" but less so than before recent actions, suggesting that there is room for further adjustments to align the federal funds rate closer to neutral [2][4]. - Following Williams' comments, the odds of a rate cut increased significantly from 39% to nearly 75% [4]. Labor Market Insights - The recent jobs report showed that employers added 119,000 jobs in September, exceeding expectations of 50,000, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [6][10]. - Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson expressed concerns about the labor market, indicating that the better-than-expected job growth might lead officials to maintain current rates, especially with upcoming labor data being delayed until December [5][9]. Analyst Perspectives - Global brokerages are divided on the implications of the mixed jobs data for the December interest rate decision, with some firms like JPMorgan and Standard Chartered withdrawing their forecasts for a rate cut, while others like Deutsche Bank and Citigroup maintain their predictions for a quarter-point cut [9][10][12]. - Analysts noted that the absence of November labor data could complicate the decision-making process for Fed officials [9][12]. Economic Conditions - Williams highlighted that downside risks to employment have increased as the labor market cools, while upside risks to inflation have lessened, indicating a shift in economic conditions [13]. - The concentration of job gains in acyclical sectors like healthcare may signal a potential economic slowdown, despite resilient consumer spending trends [15][16].

Labor Market & Economy - The report suggests the U S economy is "not too bad" but inflationary worries remain and the job market feels like it is softening [7] - Unemployment rate rose due to a large jump in the number of people looking for work, increasing the labor force significantly [3] - Weekly jobless claims are at 220,000, similar to levels at the beginning of October [6] - Difficulties adjusting for college graduates who haven't found work may be causing measurement problems in the labor force [4][5] Federal Reserve (The Fed) - The Fed's next move is uncertain, with arguments for both holding and cutting rates based on job creation, inflation, and unemployment rate [2] - Fed Governor Lisa Cook suggests monitoring how unexpected losses in private credit may spread to the broader U S financial system due to increased complexity and interconnections with leverage firms [7] - The Fed may be raising the issue of private credit risks to draw attention, as they lack supervisory ability in this area [14] Private Credit & Financial System Risks - Private credit has grown tremendously, particularly in areas where regulators lack oversight [9] - Concerns exist about interconnections among private lenders and potential contagion if borrowers default [9][11] - Key indicators to watch for stress in the financial system include default rates and the rate of fallen angels [11] - Private lending is primarily to private companies, making it difficult to get a complete picture of the credit world, but subprime loan interest rates may offer insights [12]

I I'm genuinely trying to figure out if he's blaming the word affordability on Democrats, saying they somehow made it up and it doesn't mean what it means. Um or if he's saying that nobody was complaining about affordability uh until a Democrat I I it's very confusing. Also very confusing that he was saying all that at the Saudi investment forum.Anyway, the public isn't blaming Democrats for the cost of living and the economy right now. Now, even if even if the president wants to say they are at fault, 76% ...

We've seen a lot of volatility in this data, but they still view this as healthy. Taking a look at the actual report, you looked at payroll growth that rebounded strongly to by 116,000 jobs for the month of September versus the expectation for 51,000. And we know that given lower immigration, the so-called break even rate, that is the number of jobs that need to be added in this economy to hold the unemployment rate steady, has fallen.There is some reassuring element in this September report still in the se ...

data. The delayed September jobs report is now out. The US economy added 119,000 jobs during the month.That was a lot more than expected. The unemployment rate came in at 4.4%. NBC News business and data correspondent Brian Chung joins us from the big board to talk more about these numbers.Brian, so this is the first jobs report reason it was delayed because of that government shutdown since it ended. The last one we got was for August numbers and that was of course back in early September like normal. walk ...

Core Insights - The unemployment rate increased in September as more individuals actively sought employment opportunities [1] Economic Indicators - The rise in the unemployment rate is attributed to a higher number of job seekers [1]

Welcome back. We have some breaking news we're following. The September jobs reports finally here, marking an end to the jobs data blackout brought on by the government shutdown.And this report shows the US economy added 119,000 jobs in September. More than 50,000 more than anticipated. The unemployment rate ticking up slightly to 4.4%.That's actually the highest it's been in about four years. The Bureau of Labor Statistics says it will not release an October report, saying there was a lack of household dat ...

This is the September job jobs report. Non-farm payrolls are up a robust 119,000. 119,000 would be the best since April when we were up 158,000.In the rear view mirror, well, last month was downgraded from 22,000 to minus4,000. Now, if we look at what's going on with the unemployment rate, it ticked up from 4.3% to 4.4%. That was unexpected.4.4% before would uh last time we were at that level, boy, I have to go back a ways. October of 2021 when it was 4.5%. Now, if we look at labor force participation rate, ...

While moments ago, the September jobs report was finally released after it had been delayed by the government shutdown. It showed that employers added 119,000 jobs. That is more than expected.>> But the unemployment rate also increased to 4.4% which is the highest it's been since October 2021. We're looking confused here at the table. So thankfully we have co-anchor of CNBC Squawkbox and a New York Times colonist Andrew Rossin to explain it to us.And we should note that his book 1929 inside the greatest cra ...

We are just seconds away from that delayed jobs number. We're watching the futures this morning. They're up sharply ahead of that because of what we heard from Nvidia last night.Dow futures up by about 250 points. S&P futures up by over 80. The Nasdaq now indicated up by about 5 or 425 points.Take a look at what's been happening in the Treasury market. We have seen higher yields. The 10ear sitting right at 415.The 2-year at 361 ahead of all of this. Rick Santelli is standing by at the CME in Chicago. And Ri ...