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高盛:全球利率-上涨空间有限
Goldman Sachs· 2025-07-04 03:04
Investment Rating - The report indicates a modestly richer range for US yields, with expectations for 2-year and 10-year yields to finish the year at 3.45% and 4.20% respectively, down from previous forecasts of 3.85% and 4.50% [2][5]. Core Views - The revised Fed baseline suggests earlier cuts and a lower terminal rate, leading to a lower range for US yields across the curve. The expectation for 10-year US yields is now 4.20% at the end of 2025, compared to 4.50% previously [1][2]. - The report anticipates that the improved macro outlook will compress risk premia throughout the Gilt curve, with a forecast of 10-year Gilts at 4.25% by year-end [19]. - European duration is expected to trade weaker over time, with a 10-year Bund yield forecast of 2.8% for end-2025, driven by fiscal support from Germany [19][11]. Summary by Sections US and Canada - The firmer than expected June jobs report has led to a modestly richer range for US yields, with the revised forecasts reflecting a dovish stance compared to market pricing [2][5]. - The risks associated with diminished central bank independence and fiscal pressures are limiting factors for long-end richening [2]. Europe - The report maintains Bund yield forecasts at 2.8% for end-2025, with expectations that fiscal support will push yields higher as growth expectations improve [11][19]. - The ECB's strategy assessment indicates a need for forceful policy action to address inflation volatility, with limited guidance on near-term policy [11]. UK - The report notes ongoing fiscal fragilities in the UK, but front-end longs are expected to remain relatively well protected despite recent volatility in the Gilt market [16][19]. - The expectation is for 10-year Gilts to rally towards 4.25% by year-end, supported by bullish spillovers from the US [19]. Japan - The report suggests that the BOJ normalization cycle will be prolonged, with a medium-term neutral rate of 1.25-1.5%, impacting yields across the curve [19]. General Market Dynamics - The report highlights that a benign path to lower short-term rates can improve the economic appeal of US Treasuries, despite downward revisions to US yields [1][4]. - The potential for deeper cuts to support lower yields is acknowledged, with a steeper curve expected in spot terms [4][7].
Rieder Favors Equities Over Long Duration Bonds
Bloomberg Television· 2025-06-30 17:20
Market Trends & Investment Strategies - The discussion revolves around investment strategies concerning treasuries, particularly the 20-year Bond ETF (TLT), and European bonds [1] - The firm expresses reservations about the back end of the yield curve, considering alternatives like ECB rate cuts or seeking opportunities at the long end [2] - Tactical buying of the long end of the yield curve is considered around quarter-end [2] - Long-duration assets can be helpful if geopolitical risks resurface or inflation declines [5] - Currently, equities, especially growth equities with a 19% ROE, are favored over long-duration bonds due to inflation concerns and tariff issues [5][6] Duration & Hedging - Duration is viewed as no longer a reliable hedge [4] - TLT is considered an efficient vehicle for gaining duration when needed, although not currently favored [3] Economic Factors - Inflation expectations and potential tariff problems are key themes influencing market movements [5]
September Is Live Meeting for Fed, Says Guggenheim's Brown
Bloomberg Television· 2025-06-20 19:27
They've been signaling basically to ignore the inflation data for now because it's either a lagging indicator or has the potential to change. The one thing that could make the Fed move quicker would be a weakening of the labor market. But as Ed said, the important thing to note as as bond investors and credit investors is the next move is still going to be lower rates.I am curious, Steve, when we talk about this idea of the next move and if it is lower and you have a market that at least right now seems to ...
Should the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates?
Interest Rate Policy & Economic Outlook - Market anticipates approximately two rate cuts by year-end, while some Fed officials suggest potentially only one [1] - There's significant uncertainty and deteriorating sentiment in the economy, making it difficult for the Fed to balance monetary policy [2] - Political factors, including a new Fed chair, may lead to increased pressure for rate cuts due to the impact of interest rates on large debts [3] Impact of Rate Cuts - Lowering rates could reduce returns on assets, requiring interventions that devalue money [4] - Aggressive rate cuts could negatively impact the bond market [5] - Monitoring the yield curve, dollar movement, and gold prices can reflect shifts away from bonds due to concerns about the value of money [6] Monetary Policy & Elections - Midterm elections and potential changes in monetary policy create a period of concern for the markets [5]
Long end of the curve more important than Fed rate decision: Fidelity Investments’ Jurrien Timmer
CNBC Television· 2025-06-17 15:13
Joining us this morning, Fidelity Investments director of Global Macro, Yuri Timmer, with us, who I'm sure has been listening in. Yurian, it's good to see you. Of the dual threats that we were just discussing, uh, do you think there's that one is more pronounced than the other.Um, I think they're fairly imbalanced right now. And again, this is the really the first time in decades that the Fed has had to really think about both mandates, right. for the last 15 years or so whenever there was a shock to growth ...
Why Have Markets Gone Cold on Long-Term Treasuries?  | Presented by CME Group
Bloomberg Television· 2025-06-13 20:52
Market Trends - The yield curve exhibits unusual behavior with 30-year Treasury yields rising while shorter-term yields are falling, a pattern last seen in 2001 [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has cut short-term interest rates by 100 basis points since September 2024, contributing to lower short-end yields [2] - Further easing by the Federal Reserve is anticipated, potentially reaching 50 basis points in 2025 [2] Investment Risks and Opportunities - Longer-term yields have increased, with 30-year Treasuries exceeding 5%, a level unseen since 2007 [3] - Investors are demanding higher yields for longer-dated bonds due to concerns about US fiscal policy, growing federal debt, and potential future inflation [3] - Uncertainty surrounds the government's future debt issuance and market demand to absorb it without further yield increases [4] Economic Outlook - Falling short-term yields reflect expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts [4] - Economic uncertainty is potentially linked to recent trade conflicts and tariff discussions [4]
Why Have Markets Gone Cold on Long-Term Treasuries?  | Presented by CME Group
Bloomberg Television· 2025-06-13 20:49
Market Trends & Yield Curve - Different duration Treasury yields are moving in opposite directions, a rare occurrence with 30-year yields rising while shorter-term yields are falling [1] - This pattern was last observed in 2001 [2] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has cut short-term interest rates by 100 basis points (1%) since September 2024, lowering short-end yields [2] - Further easing by the Federal Reserve is anticipated, potentially as much as 50 basis points (0.5%) in 2025 [2] Long-Term Yields & Economic Concerns - Longer-term yields have increased, with 30-year Treasuries exceeding 5%, a level not seen since 2007 [3] - Investors are demanding higher yields for longer-dated bonds due to concerns about US fiscal policy, increasing federal debt, and potential future inflation [3] - Uncertainty exists regarding the amount of future government debt issuance and whether there will be sufficient demand to absorb it without further yield increases [4] Economic Uncertainty - Falling short-term yields reflect expectations for more Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially linked to economic uncertainty from recent trade conflicts and tariff discussions [4]
Dollar Could Drop 10% in a Year, Says Tudor Jones
Bloomberg Television· 2025-06-11 20:30
But are you short the dollar. I mean, you mentioned you're into yields. I would say that the easiest long term trades are, you know, the yield curve is going to steep and probably the historic wise, you know, we're going to cut short term rates dramatically in the next year.And, you know, the dollar will probably be lower because of that. A lot lower because of that. How much lower off.10% from our high right now. Yes, I would say that that that's I think that's a year from today. That's probably a realisti ...
Gundlach on Treasuries, Gold, Fed, AI, Private Credit, Trump
Bloomberg Television· 2025-06-11 19:31
U.S. Fiscal Outlook and Treasury Market - The U.S. faces an unsustainable fiscal path, with the interest expense becoming untenable due to high budget deficits and sticky interest rates [1][4] - The average coupon on Treasuries has risen from below 2% to pushing 4%, creating a building problem as trillions of bonds mature and are re-issued at higher rates, a difference of 400 basis points [4][5][6] - The long-term Treasury bond is no longer behaving as a legitimate flight to quality asset, and is not responding to lower interest rates or an inflation rate around 25%, with potential for it to go higher [6][7] - The U.S national debt is approaching $37 trillion, requiring creative solutions, and markets are starting to acknowledge this [7][8] Investment Strategy and Market Dynamics - A paradigm shift is occurring where money is no longer flowing into the United States, and the long bond is not acting as a flight to quality asset, with gold emerging as an alternative [16] - The dollar is falling, and some of the $25 trillion net investment position that flowed into the U.S over the past two decades could potentially flow out, suggesting increased allocations to non-dollar investments [9][10] - The market environment feels similar to 1999 (dot-com bubble) and 2006/2007 (pre-credit crisis), with AI enthusiasm mirroring the dot-com boom [21][22] - A great buying opportunity is anticipated, but the timing is uncertain [21] Private Credit and Alternative Investments - There is overinvestment in private credit, and the excess reward is not as attractive as it once was, potentially leading to forced selling [32] - Gold has proven to be a source of growth, outperforming Bitcoin year-to-date, and is recommended as an asset class, with central banks accumulating gold [16][17][50] - Dollar-based investors should consider investing in foreign currencies and selective emerging market equities, as the S&P 500 is underperforming MSCI Europe year-to-date [51][52] Restructuring and Long-Term Themes - There is a need to restructure various aspects of the system, including institutions, political parties, and finances, due to wealth inequality and calcified property relations [42][46] - India is highlighted as a long-term investment theme, with a similar profile to China 35 years ago, benefiting from demographic outlook, supply chain shifts, and technology [48][49]
2025年6月3日利率债观察:为什么我们不担心资金面?
EBSCN· 2025-06-03 03:45
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report argues that there is no need to be overly worried about the liquidity situation at this stage. The probability of the monetary authorities actively tightening the liquidity is low, and factors such as CD maturities and deposit rate cuts are not the main factors affecting money market interest rates. There is a high probability of an expected difference in the liquidity situation, and the medium - and long - end of the yield curve may be repriced. However, the downward space of the yield curve this year is limited compared to the same period last year [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Why Not Worry About the Liquidity? - **Low Probability of Monetary Authorities Tightening Liquidity**: In May 2025, the 10Y Treasury bond yield was 1.67%, up about 5bp from the end of April. The long - end of the yield curve rose due to investors' concerns about the liquidity. But the probability of the monetary authorities actively tightening the liquidity is low. The spread between the 10Y Treasury bond and 7D OMO has recovered, and the uncertainty of the external environment has increased, so the monetary authorities are more concerned about the liquidity. For example, the average and volatility of DR007 in Q1 were 2.11% and 0.44% respectively, and have dropped to 1.71% and 0.10% since Q2 (as of the end of May) [1][2]. - **CD Maturity and Interest Rate Relationship**: CD maturity and net issuance demand are different concepts, and CD interest rates are not sensitive to maturities. From early 2020 to May 2025, the Pearson correlation coefficient between CD maturities and the monthly average of CD interest rates was - 0.30, and - 0.34 between maturities and the end - of - month values. In months with significantly rising CD maturities in recent years, the 1Y AAA - rated CD interest rate did not necessarily increase [3]. - **Deposit Rate Cuts and CD Interest Rates**: Deposit rate cuts do not necessarily lead to a decline in CD interest rates. For example, when state - owned large - bank deposit rates were cut in October 2024, the 1Y AAA - rated CD interest rate decreased over the following months [3]. - **Expected Difference in Liquidity and Yield Curve**: The short - end of the yield curve is mainly affected by monetary policy. The monetary authorities' urgency to tighten the liquidity to guide up long - bond yields has decreased, and they will not allow CD interest rates to rise significantly. There is a high probability of an expected difference in the liquidity situation. The short - end, mid - end, and long - end of the yield curve all have downward space until the end of the year, but the downward space is limited compared to last year. For example, the average of DR007 may gradually fall from 1.63% in May to about 1.5% in the next two months, and trading days with rates below 1.4% are not common [4].