Regional Banks Outlook - Regional banks have suffered from market share loss and direct lending to non-banks [2] - Federal agencies pulled back the leverage limit standard, which is expected to be good news for loan growth for regional banks [2][3] - A steepening yield curve could further benefit regional banks [3][11] - Expectation that regional banks may start to join money center banks in terms of rally in 2026 [4] - The removal of leverage lending limits could be a factor for regional banks' direct lending to catch up next year [10] Money Center Banks Performance - Capital markets are expected to impress even more in 2026, with some gains already priced into the stocks [5] - Continued deregulation is anticipated for money center banks [6] - Money center banks have seen outperformance in loan growth due to indirect lending or non-depository financial institution lending [9] - Consumer strength has translated into credit card growth, benefiting money center banks [9][10] Bank of America Recommendation - Bank of America is favored, as it has underperformed other money center banks by 250 basis points since its investor day [7] - Bank of America offers capital markets activity, margin expansion, and buybacks at a cheaper valuation [7][8]

The CNBC app, global market news in one place. Customizable sections and personalized alerts, stocks tracking, interactive charts and market insights, all in your hands. Stay connected, stay informed, download the CNBC app today. >> Oh, I'm very excited to be back in the studio. More excited the fact that I've got Juliana Talib leading the show. How are you. >> I'm doing well. Good to have you back. >> It's great to be back, I have to say. Right. Welcome to the scorebox Europe with Juliana Tattlebound. Uh a ...

So Jeffrey, you you so rightly told me last time that you were looking for a steeper yield curve. Um, and it's exactly what what we've gotten as you alluded to that. Why do you think rates have backed up on the long end the way that they have >> people are worried about the interest expense on the Treasury debt and they're worried about the fact that the budget deficit is 6.2% 2% of GDP while we're in an extended economic expansion.So they're worried that the interest expense is going to be out of control b ...

Economic Outlook - The yield curve has steepened, with ten-year rates being 50 basis points higher since September 2024, raising questions about the effectiveness of continued rate cuts in the absence of new data [1] - Long-term bond movements are influenced by inflation compensation, which remains at comfortable levels consistent with a 2% inflation target over time [2][3] - The increase in rates is not indicative of long-term inflation concerns but may reflect expectations of higher economic growth [4] Public Concerns and Policy Focus - Despite public concern over high prices and inflation, the focus remains on stabilizing the labor market, which appears relatively stable [5] - The Federal Reserve has a robust network of contacts that indicate high costs are largely due to embedded inflation from previous years rather than current inflation rates [6] - The goal is to restore inflation to the 2% target while also fostering a strong economy with rising real wages and job growth [7][8]

Core Insights - Deposit account rates are declining, but competitive returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) can still be locked in, with the best CDs offering rates above 4% [1] Group 1: Current CD Rates - The best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) currently offer rates around 4% to 4.5% APY, with the highest rate at 4.1% APY from various institutions [2] - Notable offers include Sallie Mae's 15-month CD, Marcus by Goldman Sachs' 14-month CD, Synchrony Bank's 9-month CD, and LendingClub's 8-month CD [2] Group 2: Historical Context - CD rates were relatively higher in the early 2000s but began to decline due to economic slowdowns and Federal Reserve rate cuts, with average one-year CDs at around 1% APY by 2009 [3] - The trend of falling CD rates continued into the 2010s, with average rates on 6-month CDs dropping to about 0.1% APY by 2013 [4] - Between 2015 and 2018, the Federal Reserve's gradual rate increases led to a slight improvement in CD rates, but the COVID-19 pandemic caused emergency rate cuts, resulting in record low CD rates [5] Group 3: Recent Developments - Following the pandemic, inflation prompted the Federal Reserve to hike rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, leading to higher APYs on savings products, including CDs [6] - As of September 2024, the Federal Reserve began cutting the federal funds rate, resulting in a decrease in CD rates from their peak, although they remain high by historical standards [7] Group 4: Understanding CD Rates - Traditionally, longer-term CDs offer higher interest rates, but currently, the highest average CD rate is for a 12-month term, indicating a flattening or inversion of the yield curve [8] - When selecting a CD, factors such as goals, type of financial institution, account terms, and inflation should be considered to ensure the best fit for individual needs [9]

Deposit account rates are on the decline. The good news: You can lock in a competitive return on a certificate of deposit (CD) today and preserve your earning power. In fact, the best CDs still pay rates above 4%. Read on for a snapshot of CD rates today and where to find the best offers. Where are the best CD rates today? CDs today typically offer rates significantly higher than traditional savings accounts. Currently, the best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) generally offer rates around 4% to 4.5% AP ...

Economic Growth and Investment - The economy is performing well, with second-quarter growth at 8%, and a forecast of 3.5% to 4% growth for the third quarter [2][3] - There is a significant capital expenditure (capex) boom driven by policies that allow full expensing, contributing to a building boom [3][9] - Investment spending is at a multi-decade high, which is expected to enhance the economy's supply-side potential [9] Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - The neutral interest rate is likely lower than market expectations, suggesting that rates should be lower to stimulate economic activity [1] - High interest rates are currently impacting the economy, but there are concerns that cutting rates too much could lead to excessive debt issuance and potential market bubbles, particularly in AI [4][5] - The yield curve remains flat, indicating that inflation expectations are well-anchored, and a capex boom could be disinflationary [6] Inflation and Wages - Inflation is primarily seen in services, with expectations that prices will decrease due to falling rents and increased housing supply [5][6] - Real blue-collar wages have increased by 1% in the first nine months of the year, marking one of the strongest performances for any new administration [12] - Policies such as the working families tax cut are expected to raise wages through capital investment, which will help address cost of living issues [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, but the focus will be on the dispersion of views among Fed members and the accompanying economic projections [2][3][5]. Market Reactions - The market is likely to see a steeper yield curve as the Fed cuts interest rates, with expectations that short-term yields will decrease while long-term yields remain elevated around the 4% mark [6][7]. - Recent sell-offs in the bond market may indicate shifting expectations regarding the Fed's future rate cuts, with concerns about the next Fed chair potentially influencing market sentiment [8][9]. Key Economic Indicators - The labor market will be a critical focus for the Fed, with upcoming reports such as the JOLTs report and unemployment claims being significant indicators of economic health [11][12]. - A softening labor market could lead the Fed to consider additional rate cuts, impacting overall market dynamics [13].

Group 1 - The Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) has reached a 52-week high, increasing by 58.9% from its 52-week low price of $51.13 per share [1] - The underlying KBW Nasdaq Bank index reflects the performance of publicly-traded banks and thrifts in the United States, with the ETF charging 35 basis points in annual fees [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates soon, which may enhance risk-on sentiment and lead to a steepening yield curve, benefiting bank ETFs [2] Group 2 - KBWB currently holds a Zacks ETF Rank 2 (Buy) with a high-risk outlook, indicating potential for continued strong performance [3] - The ETF has a positive weighted alpha of 22.71, suggesting further rally potential in the near term [3]

Core Points - The article discusses the importance of following updates from freelance writers focused on ETFs, portfolio management, and macroeconomic trends [1] Group 1 - The article emphasizes the value of real-time notifications for new articles and blog posts [1]