Copper steadied after a four-day gain as investors waited for clues on US monetary policy, after a six-week government shutdown deprived them of official data https://t.co/ygfiMGbTvZ ...

Let's talk more about inflation and the Fed. We just got that news about Boston planning to retire at the end of his term in February. Joining us this morning here at Post9 is David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jeffre and of course a CNBC contributor.Good to see you, David. Welcome. >> Good to be here.>> I'm going to guess you're not too worried about the hand ringing about consumer much. >> You know, that's that's probably what you would think, but I am getting a little worried, believe it or not. An ...

Steve Leeman, our senior economics correspondent, joining us with that. What do we know here, Steve. >> Uh, interesting comments from Steven Myron, the new Fed governor who is on a leave of absence from the administration about stable coins and the potential effect on monetary policy.He calls stable coins could be the multi-mill trillion dollar elephant in the room for central banks. Stable coins, he says, uh, could reach 1 to3 trillion dollars by the end of the decade, the uptake of it that is. and stable ...

We always have to be cautious at reading too much into any one report and that's going to be even more the case when we have a government shutdown that we're not getting the data that we need to make monetary policy in the context of the overall picture of the job market. It seems like the pre-existing trends that were in place before the government shutdown labor market seem to be continuing uh you know at at a similar rate. You continue to see modest potential overall job creation.and you continue to see ...

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said monetary policy should continue putting downward pressure on inflation, which she says is too high and remains a bigger risk for the US central bank than labor-market weakness https://t.co/gdfpUrRC3r ...

On the one hand, inflation is still well above the 2% target. It is possible that it could be sticky, for example, if increases in administered prices were repeated or if labor cost pressures continued to be elevated. There is a risk that the inflationary shocks we have had could have effects of inflation expectations on the way wages and prices are determined in the economy.That could lead to more inflationary pressure. A scenario in the report illustrates that the path of bank rate might have to be higher ...

Labor Market Analysis - Private sector job growth swung positive in October to 42,000 from negative 29,000, with larger companies contributing more than midsize and smaller companies [1] - Alternative data, like that from ADP, suggests pre-existing trends in the labor market are continuing at a similar rate, with modest job creation and moderating wages [3] - Labor demand may not be as strong as desired from a cyclical perspective, indicating rates could be lower [4] - Changes to job creation levels due to policy changes like immigration are considered output gap neutral, as additional people both work and consume [6][7][8] - Low levels of growth may result from changing border policy, but monetary policy doesn't automatically respond to this [9][10] Monetary Policy Considerations - Monetary policy aims to balance supply and demand, avoiding both inflation and deflation [7] - Expansionary supply-side policies, like full expensing provisions from the tax bill, incentivize investment in new factory equipment and structures, pushing demand higher in the short run and expanding the supply side in the longer run [12][13][14] - Regulations shape the structure of the economy by influencing production possibilities and industry composition [15] - Monetary policy responds to the output gap, the outlook for inflation, and changes in the neutral rate [18] - An increase in national savings typically leads to lower interest rates [23] Inflation and Interest Rates - One perspective is that current policy is too restrictive, and a faster move to a neutral rate is preferred to avoid undue harm to the job market [25][26][28] - Tariffs are not viewed as a significant driver of inflation, and shelter/housing market inflation is expected to decrease more quickly than some colleagues anticipate [27][28] - High interest rates may already be causing a recession in parts of the economy, particularly housing [30] - The median projection from the September meeting suggested a third rate cut this year, implying a cut in December [35] - Core services inflation, when adjusted for imputed services like portfolio management fees, is closer to 2%, specifically 23%-24% [39][46] - Shelter disinflation is a critical factor in the inflation outlook, with expectations of benign shelter inflation due to market rents running at approximately 1% [47][49] Trade and Economic Uncertainty - Increased uncertainty over the tariff and trade environment could negatively impact the economy [21] - A ruling against the president's authority to issue tariffs could increase uncertainty, potentially pressuring growth and hiring [20][21]

It's not that I'm out of bounds for where the rest of the committee is unneutral. It's just that I flipped from having one of the highest neutral rates last year to now one of the lowest neutral rates. And that's driven by things like population growth, right. It's driven by things like fiscal deficits.And if you think about population growth, right, that's normally considered to be one of the biggest drivers of neutral rates. And it's part of the reason why people think that neutral usually moves very very ...

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said monetary policy remains restrictive and that he will continue to advocate for further easing https://t.co/HVbp8TSuOo ...

The European Central Bank’s monetary policy is well positioned but could yet shift as officials grapple with risks including those emanating from financial markets, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said https://t.co/soLqabgkev ...