RT Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio)🚨 TODAY’S CPI IS VERY CRUCIAL FOR YOUR CRYPTO PORTFOLIO 🚨At 8:30 AM ET, the US will release CPI and Core CPI data.Expectations:• CPI → 2.9%• Core CPI → 3.1%Why does CPI matter? Because every major data point in the past 10 days shows the economy weakening:• Payrolls revised down 911,000 jobs (biggest cut in history)• Unemployment up to 4.3% (highest since 2021)• PPI cooled to 2.6% vs 3.3% expected; Core PPI 2.8% vs 3.5% expectedTogether: jobs are weakening, wholesale inflation ...

Asian stock are trading mixed on Thursday, following the mixed cues from Wall Street overnight, on increasing optimism the US Fed will lower interest rates a couple of times this year after report showed softer-than-expected US producer price figures, while traders await US consumer inflation data later in the day. Asian markets closed mostly higher on Wednesday.Following the report, CME Group's FedWatch Tool is currently indicating a 92.1 chance of a quarter-point rate cut and a slim 7.9 percent chance of ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 rose by 19.43 points or 0.3 percent to close at 6,532.04, while the Nasdaq increased by 6.57 points or less than a tenth of a percent to 21,886.06, both achieving new record closing highs [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 220.42 points or 0.5 percent to 45,490.92, impacted by declines in Apple, Salesforce, and Amazon [2] Economic Indicators - The Labor Department reported a 0.1 percent decrease in the producer price index for final demand in August, following a revised increase of 0.7 percent in July [3] - The annual rate of producer price growth slowed to 2.6 percent in August from a revised 3.1 percent in July, surprising economists who expected a rise [3][4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The unexpected decrease in producer prices has led to increased optimism regarding a potential quarter-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 92.1 percent chance indicated by CME Group's FedWatch Tool [4] Company Highlights - Oracle shares surged by 36.0 percent after reporting slightly weaker than expected fiscal first-quarter earnings but projecting cloud infrastructure revenue to grow to $144 billion by fiscal 2030 from $10.3 billion in fiscal 2025 [5] Sector Performance - Semiconductor stocks saw significant gains, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising by 2.4 percent to a record closing high, driven by strong revenue growth from Taiwan Semiconductor [7] - Gold stocks also performed well, with the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index increasing by 2.2 percent as gold prices reached a new record closing high [7] - Oil service, natural gas, and utilities stocks experienced notable strength, while retail and biotechnology stocks also moved upward [8] International Markets - In the Asia-Pacific region, stock markets generally moved higher, with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index up by 0.9 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rising by 1.0 percent [10] - European markets showed mixed results, with the French CAC 40 Index up by 0.2 percent, while the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index and the German DAX Index fell by 0.2 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively [10] Bond Market - Treasury yields decreased, with the benchmark ten-year note yield falling by 4.2 basis points to a five-month closing low of 4.032 percent [11]

Economic Indicators vs. Stock Market Performance - There is a significant disconnect between economic indicators and stock market performance, with employment and inflation showing negative trends while financial markets, particularly the S&P 500, are reaching record highs [1][2][8] - The S&P 500 has increased by over 11% this year, contrasting with a downward revision of job growth estimates by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which was the largest in the agency's history [2][3] Factors Influencing Stock Market Resilience - Poor job growth may lead the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which typically benefits stock prices by reducing borrowing costs [5] - The adoption of AI technology by companies could be contributing to job stagnation, which may positively impact shareholders of AI-related firms [6] - A weak U.S. dollar, which has depreciated by approximately 10% since January, is benefiting exporters and improving corporate earnings for S&P 500 companies [9][10] Impact of Tariffs and Economic Sentiment - Companies are finding ways to adapt to President Trump's tariffs, which has contributed to the stock market's performance despite negative economic signals [8] - Economists suggest that the weak dollar reflects a loss of confidence in the U.S. economy, yet it has simultaneously aided companies with significant international sales exposure [9][11]

With one week remaining until the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 17, a 50 basis-point (bps) interest rate cut is now on the table, according to prediction markets. The repricing was fueled on September 10, following compounded data that increased the chances of a more aggressive cut, bringing crypto bulls back to the surface. In particular, the FedWatch tool by the CME Group shows a nearly 10% chance for a new target rate of 375-400 bps post-meeting. CME’s FedWatch is one ...

Group 1: Wholesale Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 0.1% in August, contrary to expectations of a 0.3% increase, indicating that businesses are absorbing tariff costs [1][6] - Core PPI, excluding food and energy, also fell by 0.1% month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase of 2.8% [2] - Companies are reportedly holding off on price hikes due to factors such as foreign suppliers discounting, weak domestic demand, and uncertainty regarding future tariff rates [7] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - Some imported goods, like tobacco and coffee, showed significant price increases, with tobacco rising by 2.3% in August and coffee prices increasing by 6.9%, marking a 33.3% rise over the past year [3] - Overall, wholesalers and retailers have been slow to pass tariff costs onto consumers, as they are aware of consumer inflation concerns [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Response - Services prices dropped by 0.2% in August, contributing to the overall decline in the PPI, with trade services experiencing a 1.7% drop, the largest since 2009 [10] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, with traders placing 100% odds on a cut at the upcoming meeting, driven by tame inflation data [8][10] - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with average payroll growth at just 29,000 over the past three months, below the breakeven level needed to maintain steady unemployment [12]

Core Viewpoint - Barrick Mining Corporation's shares have increased by 27.6% in the past month, primarily due to rising gold prices amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties [1][6] Performance Comparison - Barrick has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 14.3% and the S&P 500's rise of 2.5% in the same period [2] - Competitors such as Newmont Corporation, Kinross Gold Corporation, and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited have seen gains of 10.2%, 17%, and 12.7%, respectively [2] Technical Analysis - Barrick's stock has surpassed its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and is trading above its 200-day SMA, indicating a long-term uptrend [3][4] Growth Projects - Key growth projects, including Goldrush, Pueblo Viejo plant expansion, Fourmile, Lumwana Super Pit, and Reko Diq, are on track to enhance production [9] - The Goldrush mine aims for 400,000 ounces of annual production by 2028, while the Fourmile project is expected to yield double the grades of Goldrush [10] - The Reko Diq project in Pakistan is projected to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually by the end of 2028 [10] Financial Position - Barrick maintains a strong liquidity position with cash and cash equivalents around $4.8 billion and operating cash flows of approximately $1.3 billion, up 15% year over year [12] - The company returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and repurchases, with a new share repurchase program authorized for up to $1 billion [12] Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have surged 39% this year, driven by trade tensions, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, and increased central bank purchases [14] - Current gold prices have exceeded $3,600 per ton for the first time, contributing to strong profit margins for Barrick [14] Dividend and Valuation - Barrick offers a dividend yield of 2.1% with a payout ratio of 25%, indicating sustainability [15] - The stock is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 12.84X, which is a 15.6% discount to the industry average [20] Production Outlook - Barrick expects attributable gold production of 3.15-3.5 million ounces for 2025, a decline from 3.91 million ounces in 2024, primarily due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine [18] - Higher production costs, with cash costs per ounce increasing by 17% and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) rising by 12% year over year, may impact margins [16][17] Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for Barrick have been revised upward, with a projected year-over-year rise of 56.4% for 2025 and 21.8% for 2026 [19] Investment Case - Barrick presents a strong investment case with a solid pipeline of growth projects, healthy financials, and rising gold prices, although high costs and a downbeat production outlook warrant caution [23]

Stocks rallied Wednesday morning after a cooler-than-expected producer inflation report fueled interest rate cut bets and strategists across Wall Street raised their outlooks on the US stock market https://t.co/ZjRceTpeW7 ...

Economic Outlook & Consumer Behavior - Companies are struggling to pass price increases to consumers, especially those selling to lower-income demographics [2] - Consumers have absorbed price increases for the past five years since COVID, but are now resistant due to diminished cash reserves [3][4] - Lower-income consumers are depleting their cash balances and increasing debt, excluding mortgage debt [8][9][10] - There's concern that economic weakness among lower-income consumers could spread to other segments [11] Monetary Policy & Market Dynamics - The market is currently in a "bad news is good news" situation, but there's a risk of "bad news is bad news" scenario [6] - Risk-on assets (equities, credit spreads) and risk-off assets (gold, government bonds) are both performing well [6] - The employment side is much weaker than expected, while the latest inflation print is much better than expected [5] - A potential 50 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve should be considered, given the data [12] Productivity & Future Growth - Deregulation is needed to improve supply-side response [13] - Optimism exists regarding productivity gains in the coming years due to AI, life sciences, and robotics [13]

Core Insights - U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in August, indicating that domestic firms may be absorbing some of the tariffs on imports [1][2] - The lack of strong producer price pressures suggests softening domestic demand amid a struggling labor market, leading to expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][3] Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - The Producer Price Index for final demand decreased by 0.1% in August, following a downwardly revised increase of 0.7% in July, contrary to economists' expectations of a 0.3% rise [3][4] - A 0.2% drop in services prices contributed to the PPI decline, primarily due to a 1.7% decrease in margins for trade services [4] Retailer Pricing Strategies - Retailers appear to be absorbing tariff costs, as indicated by commentary from second-quarter earnings reports, although they may need to start selectively increasing prices in the future [5] - The cost of services excluding trade, transportation, and warehousing rose by 0.3%, while transportation and warehousing services prices increased by 0.9% [5] Goods Price Movements - Goods prices edged up by 0.1% after a 0.6% increase in the previous month, with food prices also gaining 0.1% [7] - Significant price increases were noted in wholesale beef (up 6.0% month-over-month and 21.1% year-over-year) and coffee (up 6.9% month-over-month and 33.3% year-over-year) [7]