But as well as these stocks have done or maybe because of it, the question many have, is evaluations gotten out of control. Well, we don't know. But let's ask somebody who does.Aswan is professor of finance at the NYU School of Business. They call him the dean of valuations for a reason. Oswath, great to have you on.Perfect day for it. Have valuations gotten a little bit stupid or are we okay. I think for the last 10 years, we've had this conversation over and over again.Markets reach a new high. >> We say ...

Market Reaction & Rate Cut Probability - Market exuberance is noted, particularly in riskier, speculative market segments, following Powell's speech [4] - Market assigned approximately 80% probability of a rate cut in September prior to the speech, which increased to 85-86% during the conversation [4][5] - Market reactions should be considered, but the market is not always right [2][3] Inflation & Tariffs - Tariffs have begun to increase prices in some goods categories, with accumulating effects expected over the coming months [1] - Tariff inflation is likened to the "tariff Titanic" hitting the "inflation iceberg," suggesting significant impact [5] - Core inflation is projected to exceed 3% by year-end, influenced by both tariffs and service-side inflation [6] - The Federal Reserve acknowledges tariff inflation is coming through, as reflected in PPI (Producer Price Index) [11][12] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - Powell's speech emphasized balance, assessing both upside risks for inflation and downside risks for the labor market [2] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma balancing concerns about the labor market with rising inflation [7] - The Federal Reserve might not need to be as concerned about the labor market as expressed in the speech, given supply-side factors [7][8] - The Federal Reserve can choose to view inflation data differently and utilize various measures to justify a rate cut [12][13] Labor Market - The unemployment rate is at 42%, consistent with the rate a year prior [8]

Economic Outlook - The Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech addresses the shifting balance of risks, potentially warranting adjustments to the policy stance [1] - The labor market's unusual balance, resulting from slowing supply and demand for workers, suggests rising downside risks to employment [2] - Labor Department revisions in job growth figures for May and June altered the perception of the labor market's strength [3] Inflation and Tariffs - Tariffs are now feeding into goods prices, with the effects expected to be relatively short-lived, representing a one-time shift in the price level [4] - The impact of tariffs could take months or quarters to filter through the entire supply chain ecosystem [5] - Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside [6] Monetary Policy - A slowing labor market may lead the Fed to cut interest rates [6] - Intense pressure from President Trump and his senior economic advisors urging the Fed to cut interest rates [5]

Monetary Policy Stance - The Fed is likely to move rates down, possibly starting with a 25 basis point (0.25%) cut as early as September, viewed as an insurance cut against downside risks to employment [1][2] - The Fed will be very focused on ensuring long-term inflation expectations remain contained and consistent with 2% [2] - The current policy is viewed as modestly restrictive, allowing room to reduce restrictiveness while still addressing inflation and protecting the labor market [3] - The Fed's future actions will be data-dependent, with potential adjustments to the policy stance based on incoming data between now and the September meeting [4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is experiencing moderating demand and supply, keeping the unemployment rate low, but this balance could shift if demand weakens more than supply [7] - Significant deterioration in the labor market could prompt further rate cuts to address the issue [8] Inflation Concerns - The Fed must be careful not to give up the fight against inflation, as one-off price changes can become inflationary if monetary policy is not appropriately managed [8][9] - Balancing both sides of the mandate (employment and inflation) requires careful consideration of economic signals and policy path [9] Communication and Transparency - Fed Chair's speeches provide guidance to other committee members, offering insights into the Chair's perspective on the economy [5] - The market's interpretation of "adjusting" policy stance as plural may be incorrect, as the Fed is expected to proceed carefully [6] - The upcoming Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will offer insights into the FOMC participants' views on future policy and economic projections [10]

Inflation Concerns - Inflation is too high and has been trending higher [2][3] - The current inflation rate puts a real pinch on lower income households [4] - Inflation has been above the target for four years, requiring control [4] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve chair is open-minded about the right policy stance for September [2] - The current economic situation presents a challenging time for monetary policy [3] - Expectation is that inflation may continue to rise, and unemployment may also rise [3] Employment Situation - The employment side is reasonably close to full employment [2] - Employment has been balanced and healthy for the better part of a year [2] - Unemployment has been pretty consistent in the 4% to 43% range [3]

Let's dig deeper into how the markets are processing all these headlines from Chair Powell's speech. Joining us with his takeaways is Rosenberg Research founder and president David Rosenberg. Were Were you surprised to hear Powell much more open today to the policy pivot and the September cut.Well, if you would have asked me uh a few days ago, uh I would have been surprised. But then I gave a a good second look at the FOMC minutes uh that had come out from the last meeting. And what was really important uh ...

Monetary Policy Stance - Monetary policy is not on a preset course, decisions are based on data assessment and its implications for the economic outlook and balance of risks [3] - The policy rate is now 100 basis points closer to neutral than a year ago [2] - With policy in restrictive territory, the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting the policy stance [3] Economic Outlook & Risks - Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside [1] - The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows for careful consideration of policy changes [2]

Powell says the Fed is moving away from its strict 2% inflation framework.They’re going to let inflation run hot.Buy as much Bitcoin as you can 😅 https://t.co/QbzoZsS9HF ...

Market Trends & Monetary Policy - The bond market (Treasuries) experienced a rally following cautious remarks from the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, hinting at a potential interest rate cut next month [1] - The Federal Reserve's consideration for an interest rate cut is influenced by concerns regarding labor market risks, even amidst ongoing inflation worries [1]

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said while some recent inflation readings have come in better than expected, he hopes one “dangerous” data point is just a blip https://t.co/jBX0RaG4Zp ...