Joining us now, the former chair of the National Economic Council of Adviserss under President Biden, Jared Bernstein. Welcome back, Jared. It's always good to see you.So, let's start with what the Commerce Secretary was talking about there and this kind of whiplash in the markets last week to news that Trump considered firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Markets then dropped, but Trump backed off, saying it was highly unlikely, but he doesn't rule it out. So, the Wall Street Journal reports Treasur ...

If President Trump succeeds in forcing out Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve would no longer be an independent check on inflation, @greg_ip writes https://t.co/wyR2zcifvd ...

Donald Trump's attacks on the Fed are not just about its chairman, Jerome Powell. In fact, they're not really about Jerome Powell at all. The attacks are about whether we still believe America's central bank should be insulated from political interference.It's about turning one of the most trusted financial institutions in the world into a partisan weapon. And it's understandable if you don't think that much about the Fed at all. But the consequences of Trump's relentless attacks on Powell are more dangerou ...

Consumer sentiment improved in July as inflation expectations subsided, showing consumers may be less worried about tariffs amid positive economic data. https://t.co/m25ZtYuMgk ...

JUST IN: Analytics CEO tells Bloomberg stablecoins will find their way into assets like Bitcoin"Bitcoin hedges against inflation...there will never be more than 21 million Bitcoin" https://t.co/VScj34fzn0 ...

Fiscal Policy & Economic Impact - The legislation is viewed as a significant legislative achievement, but concerns exist regarding its potential to substantially increase budget deficits in the future [1] - The legislation is considered the largest cutback in the social safety net identified, occurring alongside potential reductions in spending on scientific research, arts, humanities, and foreign assistance programs [3] - Concerns are raised that the legislation compromises the nation's capacity to defend itself due to increased debt and negatively impacts its standing as a humane force in the world [4] - Bond market trends, particularly forward rates on regular bonds (well above 5%) and TIPS (well above 3%), are seen as potentially ominous indicators of the nation's medium-term credibility and ability to issue long-term debt [12] Tariffs & Inflation - Despite concerns about tariffs, CPI numbers have not yet indicated the inflation predicted by most economists [6] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may be delayed, with potential deflationary forces from artificial intelligence and technology possibly influencing the situation [7][8] - Studies during the president's first term indicated that tariffs translated into higher prices in affected sectors [9] Consumer & Small Business - Consumer spending grew by over 4% in the second quarter of 2024, supported by employment and wage growth [14] - Moderate-income households are showing some shifts in spending patterns, but overall discretionary spending remains consistent [15] - Small and medium-sized businesses face challenges due to the rising interest rate environment affecting their short-term borrowing costs [16] - Uncertainty surrounding trade and tariffs poses challenges for companies engaged in international trade, while the certainty provided by the tax rate is seen as a positive factor [17] Labor Market - Construction, farming, and travel/entertainment companies are expressing concerns about labor availability at any price [18] - Ensuring an adequate workforce is crucial for the continued growth of the service economy [19]

I want to kick off the conversation with the fact that the Fed has been waiting to see what the impact of tariffs will be on inflation over the summer months before charting a course forward on interest rates. And we got the first reading of that this week with the June CPI. We saw that tick up a tenth of a percentage point to 2.9%.That was up from 2.8% previously. Are you seeing any indication that tariffs are pushing up inflation now. I think you saw it on goods.If you look at the core goods inflation, es ...

Economic Concerns & US Dollar - The US national debt has increased significantly, from $10 trillion to $37 trillion, with projections of an additional $20 trillion over the next decade [3][4] - The US dollar is experiencing a decline, down 20% in the last six months, raising concerns about its status as the global reserve currency [6] - The decline of the US dollar poses a risk to the US's global dominance and could lead to a decrease in the value of money [5][15] Trade & Tariff Policy - Potential blanket unilateral tariff rate of 10% to 15% is being considered [1] - Uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is causing hesitation in international budgeting and investment decisions for multinational corporations [23][24] - Tariffs are contributing to the return of inflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates [26] Political & Economic Impact - Political extremism and reckless behavior are contributing to the growing debt and potential fiscal crisis [12] - Irresponsible tax and spending policies under both Democratic and Republican leadership have diminished the US's standing and currency [15] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is a bigger issue than the tax numbers themselves [27]

Market Concerns & Tariffs - The market's biggest concern revolves around tariffs due to the uncertainty of their endpoint and potential effects on sectors, market capitalizations, and investment styles [1][2] - The EU tariffs are significant due to the EU being a major trade partner, and the lack of a livable agreement introduces volatility [4] - Europe is considering other trade partners to offset potential losses with the US [4] - A livable agreement between the US and the EU is expected to be reached, potentially at a lower rate than the discussed 15% [5] US Exceptionalism & Economic Resilience - Oppenheimer Asset Management believes US exceptionalism remains intact due to innovation in technology [6][7] - The US is seen as the "cleanest dirty shirt" in a "hamper of dirty shirts," highlighting its relative strength compared to other countries, particularly regarding technology [7] - The US consumer remains remarkably resilient despite multiple interest rate hikes and pauses [3] - No recession is expected [3] Global Market Dynamics - International markets have outperformed the US recently, driven by lower valuations and expectations of tariff agreements [6][7] - The rest of the world feeds into globalization [7] - Technology is deeply embedded in societies, businesses, and consumers worldwide [8]

Mr. . Speaker, do you think that that JP Pal uh is going to be around till till May. I we're trying to figure out exactly what how to uh how to handicap that at this point.Do you think he should be around in May. Is there um I guess people that wish that he wouldn't if he would resign, that's probably would be easier or that's probably not going to happen though. What do you think.How does this play out in your view. Um I'm as anxious to see how that plays out as you are. I will tell you that the sentiment ...