TODAY: Economist Robin Brooks predicts President Trump's Fed pick Kevin Warsh will cut rates by 100 basis points before midterms, contradicting hawkish fears. https://t.co/4UjeQfDUtF ...

It's important to be realizing that things need to be put into perspective.The ISM Manufacturing PMI is heading into the first 50+ read in more than 3 years.It's been one of the longest 'bear' markets on that regard.Not great for the business cycle, and not great for #Bitcoin.The fact that Bitcoin rallied is simply and only due to the launch and liquidity of the ETF.By now, just now, is the moment that the markets start to wake up.Now, there's a lot of debate on the fact that PMI stayed positive in previous ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The focus in private markets has shifted from interest rates and inflation to tariffs and trade policies, which have reached levels not seen in a century, increasing operational and investment risks for funds [4][33] - Fundraising sentiment is stable but demanding, with capital flowing towards large platforms or niche managers, while those in the middle face tougher conditions [5] - AI adoption in private markets has accelerated, with nearly all firms exploring AI tools, although governance and clear policies are still lacking [6][116] Macro - The federal funds rate is expected to decrease, with market pricing indicating two cuts by year-end and another two next year, although inflation concerns may affect borrowing costs [19][21] - The effective US tariff rate has risen significantly, impacting private markets and leading funds to manage FX risk through increased hedging [33][36] Private Market Trends - Fundraising has returned to pre-pandemic levels, but there is a split in capital flow, with large and niche funds performing better than mid-sized funds [5][52] - Investors expect moderate growth in AUM, with nearly 70% anticipating an increase of 10% or more over the next 12 months [62] - The fundraising environment is characterized by a bifurcation, where large funds are aggregating capital while niche funds succeed through sectoral expertise [63] Spotlight: AI and Firm Operations - The era of AI hesitation has ended, with most firms now exploring AI tools, although implementation remains a challenge [116] - Firms are focusing on building data infrastructure to maximize the benefits of AI, as many lack the necessary data foundation [117][118] - AI tools are primarily being used in areas where junior staff work, but hiring for junior positions remains strong as firms view AI as a complement rather than a replacement [129][130]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the economic outlook for the US, Euro area, and Asia/EM regions, focusing on monetary policy, inflation, and GDP growth forecasts. Core Points and Arguments US Economic Outlook - The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% in a split decision of 10-2, aligning with consensus expectations [4] - Anticipation of two 25 basis point cuts in June and September, potentially lowering the rate to 3-3.25% [5] - Better growth news and signs of labor market stabilization suggest the FOMC is positioned to hold rates steady while assessing incoming data [5] - Q4 GDP tracking estimate was lowered by 0.4 percentage points to +2.0%, influenced by a 5.3% increase in durable goods orders and a widening trade deficit [5] Euro Area Economic Outlook - Euro area real GDP increased by 0.3% in Q4, surpassing expectations [6] - Inflation in January was slightly above expectations in Spain (2.5% YoY) and Germany (2.13% YoY), leading to an upgrade in the Euro area headline inflation forecast to 1.77% YoY [6] - The ECB is expected to maintain its policy rate at 2% for the foreseeable future, with no major changes anticipated in the upcoming meeting [6] Asia/EM Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, with expectations for a rate hike in July [10] - The Riksbank maintained its policy rate at 1.75%, signaling stability until at least the second half of 2027 [8] - Client sentiment from a Global Macro Conference indicated increased optimism about the global economy, with a preference for EM equities, particularly in China and Korea/Taiwan [8] Additional Important Insights - The potential removal of US tariffs could lead to significant changes in trade flows and consumer prices, as evidenced by the experience in Canada [4] - The labor market remains a critical uncertainty in the economic outlook, with expected net job losses in AI-exposed industries [5] - Geopolitical developments are ranked as the highest risk concern among clients [10] Conclusion - The economic outlook across the US, Euro area, and Asia/EM regions shows cautious optimism, with central banks maintaining current rates while monitoring inflation and growth indicators. The potential for tariff changes and labor market dynamics are key factors to watch in the coming months.

Last week, we got a big update regarding, of course, the SEC and the CFTC chairman saying that they must act quickly to upgrade our rules and regulations to accommodate digital assets. We have designed Project Crypto to ensure that when Congress acts, the United States is ready to reinforce our global financial leadership. Now, what exactly are they, you know, talking about with Project Crypto.Well, we know that Paul Atkins announced project crypto a few months back regarding supporting tokenization and cry ...

ROMAINE: A BOUNCEBACK AND U.S. MANUFACTURING LEADS TO REBOUND IN U.S. EQUITIES. HERE AT BLOOMBERG HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK, I'M ROMAINE BOSTICK. KATIE: WE'RE KICKING YOU OFF TO THE CLOSING BELL HERE IN THE U.S., THE S&P 500 HEADING FOR RECORD HIGH.HIGHER BY ABOUT .5% RIGHT NOW. WE HAD U.S. ISM MANUFACTURING COME IN STRONG AS MORNING, YOU SEE THAT IN THE NASDAQ 100, GIVING A LIFT TO YIELDS. FOR KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF 4.30%, THEN YOU LOOK AT THE DOLLAR, CONTINUING TO RALLY.BLOOMBERG DOLLAR SPOT INDEX HIGHER ...

I think the crypto market has taken it much worse than we expected. >> My recommendation is a smaller balance sheet. >> We can get to 40,000 40,000.>> Um why the cryptocurrency market is getting absurd as we get several different reasons why the crypto market is crashing. >> Generally speaking, a Bitcoin winner is 12 to 18 months long. And these are well understood technical features.So at 76,000 from 125,000 which was the peak, we can get to 40,000. In fact, we're one, two, three, four straight months of r ...

Hello everyone. Deflation is swallowing the US economy. The new Fed chair nominee has recently changed his mind on something big.And we have the latest example of AI videos that's going to blow your mind. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompiano. Before we get into today's episode, I need your help.My goal is to get to 1 million subscribers on YouTube and we currently have just over 42,000 of you who already hit the subscribe button. Hit that button and let's get into today's episode. President Tr ...

Core Insights - The quantum computing sector experienced significant volatility in January 2026, with major players like IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and D-Wave Quantum facing substantial sell-offs due to broader tech market jitters and risk-off sentiment [1][4][5] Market Performance - In January, IonQ's stock declined by 10.9%, while Rigetti and D-Wave saw larger drops of 18% and 18.9%, respectively [2][8] Market Drivers - The sell-off was primarily driven by uncertainty surrounding interest rates, as central banks indicated that rate cuts would be slower and more dependent on economic data, leading to reduced attractiveness of long-duration assets [4][5] - Geopolitical tensions, including ongoing conflicts and trade pressures, raised concerns about supply chains and capital spending, prompting investors to shift towards defensive sectors [5] February Outlook - For February 2026, selective stabilization is anticipated rather than a broad-based rebound, with stock-specific developments becoming increasingly important [6] - IonQ's announcement of a $1.8 billion acquisition of SkyWater provided a temporary boost in sentiment, with analysts projecting a 74.61% increase in price target from its last closing price of $43.24 [7][8] - D-Wave reported $30 million in contracts and growing traction for its Advantage2 system, which helped stabilize its shares, with an average price target increase of 73.8% from its last closing price of $23.22 [9] - Rigetti, however, lacks near-term catalysts, making it more vulnerable to macro sentiment, with an average price target increase of 103% from its last closing price of $19.85 [10] Valuation Sensitivity - Valuations for quantum pure plays remain highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations and overall risk appetite, limiting upside potential unless macro conditions improve significantly [15]

Did Kevin Marsh commit to you that he will push to cut interest rates if he is confirmed. >> No. But we talk about it and I've been following him and I don't want to ask him that question.I think it's inappropriate. Probably it probably would be allowed, but I want to keep it nice and pure, but he certainly wants to cut rates. I've been watching him for a long time.>> Did you have any concerns about his hawkish history of pushing for rate hikes. >> He's going to want to do the same thing. I think that yeah, ...