🇺🇸 TRUMP: Urges Fed to cut rates by 3 points, claiming it would save $1 trillion a year. https://t.co/1YWjbLU7u3 ...

Industry Overview - The Zacks Consumer Loans industry includes companies providing various loan products such as mortgages, credit card loans, and personal loans, which are crucial for generating net interest income (NII) [3] - The industry's performance is highly sensitive to the overall economic conditions and consumer sentiments, with many providers also engaging in commercial lending and asset recovery to diversify revenue sources [3] Key Influencing Factors - **Asset Quality**: Prolonged high interest rates are affecting borrowers' repayment capacity, leading to increased reserves by loan providers to mitigate rising defaults, which is deteriorating asset quality [4] - **Interest Rates & Loan Demand**: Steady interest rates have slightly improved loan demand, but consumer confidence remains low due to tariff-related uncertainties, limiting growth in net interest margin (NIM) and NII [5] - **Lending Standards**: Improved credit scores due to the removal of tax liens from credit reports have expanded the borrower pool, while relaxed lending standards are helping meet loan demand [6] Industry Performance - The Zacks Consumer Loans industry has a Zacks Industry Rank of 155, placing it in the bottom 37% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating underperformance in the near term [7][8] - Analysts have revised the industry's earnings estimates for the current year down by 7.9%, reflecting a loss of confidence in earnings growth potential [9] Market Comparison - Over the past two years, the Zacks Consumer Loans industry has outperformed the Zacks S&P 500 composite and the Zacks Finance sector, with a collective stock increase of 68.3% compared to 39.5% and 42% respectively [11] Valuation Metrics - The industry has a trailing 12-month price-to-tangible book ratio (P/TBV) of 1.33X, above the five-year median of 1.03X, but significantly lower than the S&P 500's ratio of 13.33X [14][16] Investment Opportunities - **Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)**: Focused on consumer and commercial lending, COF is well-positioned for growth with a market cap of $141.3 billion and expected earnings growth of 10.7% and 20% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [21][20] - **Enova International, Inc. (ENVA)**: A financial technology company with a market cap of $2.94 billion, ENVA has seen a 20.7% increase in shares this year and is expected to grow earnings by 28.9% and 17.6% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [26][25]

Financial Performance - Banks are expected to report good results, with upward rerating in stocks justified by improved macro environment [2] - Loan growth is decent at about 3% for both commercial industrial and consumer [3] - Higher for longer interest rates have resulted in some upward repricing on securities [3] - 3% loan growth can translate into 5% to 6% net interest income growth [3] Macroeconomic Factors - Deregulatory environment is constructive for banks [2] - Employment is healthy, which is a significant determinant for delinquencies and loan loss provisions [4] - The shock factor of tariffs has abated, with companies finding ways to navigate the tariff environment [6] Potential Risks and Opportunities - Uncertainty from tariffs could result in more moderate loan growth and pause on expansion plans [7] - Trade finance might be negatively impacted by tariffs [7] - IPO and M&A activity could be much stronger in the absence of tariff conversations [7] - Potential for rebound in capital markets generally [7]

We do have that breaking news right now. Let's get straight to Rick Santelli for more on that. Rick, take it away.Yes, this is our June read on CPI, the consumer price uh inflationary guide, and it is a little warmer than expected on year-over-year, but headline looks good. Up 3/10 as expected. That does follow up one10enth.Up 3/10 will be the second warmest of the year. January was the warmest at up half 1%. This is as expected but two ten hotter than the rearview mirror.If we strip out food and energy com ...

Canadian consumer prices accelerated for the first time in four months and underlying price pressures firmed, likely keeping the central bank from cutting interest rates later this month https://t.co/kc1Hk5aOoW ...

Monetary Policy - India's central bank will consider further interest rate cuts if inflation falls below its projection [1] - The central bank may also cut rates if growth comes under pressure in Asia's third largest economy [1] Economic Outlook - The Governor of India's central bank, Sanjay Malhotra, made the statement regarding potential rate cuts [1]

US Economic Policy & Federal Reserve - The White House is attempting to build a legal case to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for cause, citing mismanagement of a $2500 million renovation project at the central bank's headquarters [1] - The statute governing the Fed states that the Fed chair can be fired for cause, not at the president's discretion [1] - Trump's economic agenda has made it difficult for the Fed to lower interest rates, leading to political problems [1][6] - Replacing Powell with someone who lowers interest rates by 300 basis points could create a huge financial bubble [1] - An independent central bank is better for the long-term economy, as political pressure can lead to runaway inflation [1] Tariffs & Inflation - The market believes that Trump will chicken out on imposing tariffs [7][8][9] - Tariffs are attacks on the American people, increasing costs at Walmart, Target, and other places that rely on imported goods [10] - New tariffs on Brazil, including a 50% tariff, will raise prices on fish, meat, coffee, and machinery [4] - The case for cutting rates is non-existent, with core inflation projected at 3% year-over-year, above the Fed's 2% target [3] National Debt - The big beautiful bill (tax cut) is going to add $4 trillion to the debt, leading to more interest expense and budget deficits [12]

Rates for new 30-year loans are fluctuating in a narrow range just above the low reached two weeks ago. Rates for several other loan types are also wavering. https://t.co/7YGzFO7CEE ...

Let's bring in Samir Sana, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, head of global equities and real assets. Samir, good to have you back. Thanks for the time.Um, Alen, all this talk about tariffs, are are you in sort of a waiting mode to see if and when this does hit or create some degradation in the macro. Not really. I mean, look, at the end, you know, end of the day, at least for us, it's it's a direction of travel, right.And so, if you look at the start of the year, we basically had dimminimous tariffs, and w ...

City Croup, a US equity strategist Scott Croner's with us at Post9 as we get set for earnings season to kick into higher gear. Good to see you, Scott. Welcome.Great to be here, Carl. Um, is the market really just focused on on Q2 earnings. Well, I think it's focused on Q2 earnings, but I actually think it's increasingly focused on the follow through and the aftermath of tariffs and other policy news in terms of what it means for 2026.As we go in the back half of the year, you usually flip forward on the cal ...