Trump has dialed down his confrontational tone with China in an effort to secure a summit with counterpart Xi Jinping and a trade deal https://t.co/3UkgBAxoXY ...

Trade & Tariffs - Investors are potentially underestimating the likelihood of sustained high tariffs, influenced by President Trump's consistent stance on trade [2][3][4] - The impact of tariffs, such as 30% or 50% on the European Union, varies across countries and products, making trade dynamics complex [7][9] - Companies may shift supply chains away from the U S due to increasing costs, leading to potential underperformance of U S businesses [9][10] Government Debt Sustainability - Government debt sustainability is a growing concern across developed markets, including the U S, Japan, the UK, and Europe [5] - A developed markets bond crisis is a serious possibility [6] Economic Impact - Increased costs for U S businesses and consumers are anticipated as global trade deals exclude the U S, fostering resilience in other countries [9] - Diversification of business chains by other countries may lead to continued underperformance of the U S [10]

A growing number of EU member states wants the bloc to activate its most powerful trade tool against the US should the two sides fail to reach an acceptable agreement by Aug. 1 https://t.co/8v0l7ChW7t ...

Megan Cassella has them. Megan, hey, Kelly. So, the president now posting on Truth Social a few more of these details of this topline trade framework with Indonesia.He says as part of the agreement, Indonesia is committed to purchasing $15 billion in US energy, $4.5% billion in American agricultural products, and 50 jets from Boeing. Many of them, he says, will be 777s. He also goes on to say later that if there's any trans shshipment from a higher tariff country, that tariff will be added on to the tariff ...

Carney says US-Canada trade deal likely to include some tariffs https://t.co/4ZUXMjwymw ...

European countries should do everything they can to avoid a trade war with the US, said Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni https://t.co/wshoJRo1Nw ...

Economic Growth and Consumer Confidence - Global economic growth remains uncertain, with high interest rates impacting households and businesses[11] - Overall consumer confidence has declined due to high consumer prices, with spending slowing down across most regions except Brazil[13][22] - The OECD global consumer confidence index shows a downward trend, indicating reduced consumer sentiment[20] Manufacturing and Services Sector - Manufacturing experienced its first contraction in 2024, while the services sector continues to show stable growth[14] - Manufacturing growth in China and the US has stagnated, with the Eurozone still in contraction[34] - The services sector remains a bright spot in the global economy, driven by industrial production growth and capital market improvements[45] Trade and Supply Chain - Global trade volume increased by 0.7% in June, primarily driven by growth in developed economies[50] - The global supply chain market is normalizing, with the pressure index reaching historical averages in July[51] - Total port trade in June 2024 decreased compared to June 2023, mainly due to reduced activity in Asian economies[69] Employment and Inflation - Unemployment rates in the US and China continued to rise in July, while Brazil's unemployment rate showed a declining trend[73] - Inflation in developed economies is easing, with the Eurozone facing deflationary pressures[77] - Consumer inflation in developing economies remained stable in July, with only Russia experiencing an acceleration[84] Commodity Prices and Market Trends - Most commodity prices continued to decline in August but remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels[89] - Gold prices reached a historical high of $2,439 per ounce in August[93] - Stock markets faced challenges in August, with most exchanges reporting losses[123]

Economic Growth - China's economic growth is slowing down [1] International Trade - Trade turmoil is weighing on the Chinese economy [1]

International Relations & Geopolitics - President Trump is teaming up with NATO allies to increase pressure on Vladimir Putin, threatening severe tariffs if a deal isn't reached in 50 days [1] - The U S Senate is considering legislation to impose more economic restrictions on Russia and countries indirectly financing its war efforts [2] - Trump threatens the EU with 30% tariffs but remains open to talks as European trade ministers strategize [3] - NATO will coordinate the distribution of weaponry indirectly received from the U S to Ukraine [5] - The U S is negotiating new trade deals with India and China amidst potential secondary sanctions on countries buying oil from Russia [6][7] - Senator Shaheen states that Vladimir Putin will not negotiate seriously unless he feels more pressure from the Trump administration [16] - Senator Shaheen highlights the importance of implementing and policing sanctions to prevent countries like India and China from buying oil from Russia [18] - Senator Shaheen notes China has moved in where the United States has shut down foreign assistance programs [24] - The U S plans to send a top-tier weapons package to Ukraine, with NATO buying the weapons [54] - The German Defense Minister is in Washington seeking additional Patriot batteries for Ukraine as soon as possible [59] - Evelyn Farkas emphasizes the importance of both military and economic pressure on Putin, noting sanctions are crucial [62][63] - Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery notes Ukraine is fighting Russia, North Korea, Iran, and China, with Russia hiring artillery from North Korea [64][65] - Evelyn Farkas states that stopping Putin in Ukraine is the best way to prevent a war with Russia [79] Trade & Tariffs - The market is starting to look through President Trump's comments on tariffs, anticipating that the follow-through will be less severe than initially stated [33][34] - PIMCO suggests the equity market is sanguine about tariffs, while the fixed income market is pricing in slower growth partly due to tariffs [39][40] - The effective average tariff rate on U S imports has risen from 3% at the start of the year to around 14%, potentially exceeding 20% [40][41] - PIMCO anticipates the economy will slow and inflation could pick up due to tariffs [42] - PIMCO notes tariffs are a tax that will ultimately be paid by exporters, corporate importers, and/or consumers [44][45] - The U S is imposing a 17% tariff on tomatoes from Mexico [43] Monetary Policy & Federal Reserve - PIMCO expects President Trump to pressure Fed Chair Powell for lower rates but does not anticipate Powell's firing [47][48] - PIMCO believes Trump will have opportunities to reshape the Fed in the near future [48][49] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin is touching another record high as the House kicks off Crypto Week [4] - PIMCO welcomes regulatory clarity for digital assets but does not expect the Clarity Act to pass quickly in the Senate [51][52] US Domestic Policy - The Supreme Court allows the Trump administration to resume its purge of the Department of Education [80][82] - The House is facing a deadline to pass a $94 billion package in cuts to funding for PBS, NPR, and USAID [88]

Anthony Albanese is walking a fine line between Australia's defense relationship with the US and its biggest trade partner China. Read today's Australia Briefing by @argana_carmeli for the best of Bloomberg from Down Under and around the world. https://t.co/RyqzA047Db ...