Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Euro Strength & Political Risks - Despite political instability in France and concerns over the Spanish budget, the euro has maintained its strength, trading near 1.20-1.21 levels [1][2] - The euro's resilience contrasts with last year's French political crisis, where the euro weakened significantly against the dollar and pound [3] - The euro's strength is attributed to dollar weakness rather than euro strength, remaining above $0.86 against the pound [4] Dollar Weakness & US Economic Factors - Persistent dollar weakness has been observed over the past five days and throughout the year [5] - Key catalysts for the dollar include expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which are largely priced in [6] - Upcoming payrolls data and inflation figures could shift the picture, potentially making the euro and other currencies more vulnerable and impacting the dollar [7] - Macro uncertainty and a likely lower rate environment are expected to support further dollar weakening [8] Gold & Precious Metals Market - Gold has exceeded April records, coinciding with tariff turmoil and dollar weakness [8][9] - A "sell the US story" is emerging, driving movement towards precious metals [9] - Weaker US economic data in the coming weeks could disrupt the precious metals market [10]

Macro shifts — Fed outlook, dollar weakness & new policies — moving crypto sentiment.💵📉 ...

FX Market Drivers - The FX market in the first half of the year was driven by perceived capital flows [1] - The market is uncertain but aware of the significant investment in US equities and treasuries, making returns vulnerable if the economy slows [2] - The market is confused about the short-term rate story, focusing on whether the US economy is slowing slightly or facing a more significant slowdown [2] US Dollar and Economic Data - The market is overreacting to macroeconomic data, anticipating overreactions to data releases in September [3] - The "sell dollar, sell the United States" trade has plateaued, shifting towards a landscape of nuanced reactions to each data point [4] - The data will determine if the US economy is slowing significantly [4] Currency Movements and Economic Impact - Rapid currency movements, like the Euro-Dollar increase from 102 to 118, trigger reactions from inflation-targeting central banks and the economy [5] - The future Euro-Dollar rate, potentially reaching 125 or remaining at current levels, depends on the extent of the US economic slowdown in the next three months [6] - A repeat of soft payroll numbers could lead to a further 5-10% dollar weakness [6][7] - A gentle easing in US growth may not justify significant dollar weakness if the inflation impact from tariffs is limited [7]

Currency Market Analysis - Euro weakness is observed, reversing gains after reaching a three-year high, influenced by dollar weakness and anticipation of a trade deal [1][2] - The pound initially experienced a relief rally following the UK trade deal announcement but later faced concerns about increased costs [4] - The pound fell below $1.34, considered low despite a recent high of $1.38, but it was the best-performing G10 currency yesterday [9] Trade Deal Impact - The trade deal is perceived as more expensive for companies than before, with a 15% cost increase exceeding the previously expected 1% [3] - Market reaction to trade deals may be overdone, with uncertainty about whether they are ultimately beneficial for Europe or detrimental to the US [4][5] Economic Data and Central Bank Meetings - Key central bank meetings, including the Fed, are anticipated as potential catalysts to shift the current narrative [6] - Crucial US data, including inflation and jobs reports, will be important for assessing the US economy's performance and the impact of tariffs [7] - EU GDP data and the Bank of England decision next week are being priced into the pound, influencing the euro [8] Earnings and Equity Market - Strong earnings results are observed from banks like Barclays, indicating a bullish outlook on the equity side [11] - Big tech earnings this week will be crucial for assessing the equity story and the vulnerability of the S&P rally [12] - Value stocks, particularly the Footsie 100, are outperforming the Stoxx 600 and the S&P in terms of year-to-date returns [12]

Trade Negotiations & Market Impact - The market has largely priced in President Trump's negotiating style regarding trade, characterized by aggressive initial stances followed by negotiation [2][3] - The market's current tolerance of this approach may embolden the President to continue [5] - Exhaustion with trade tensions is anticipated around Q3, potentially pressuring policymakers [7] - Tariffs' impact on company margins and revenue is expected to become more apparent in Q3 as older, cheaper inventory is depleted [7][8] Earnings & Company Performance - Consumer companies with limited pricing power and excess inventory are likely to be most affected by tariffs [10] - Negative comments regarding tariff impacts are expected to emerge in late July/early August during earnings season, particularly from companies reporting later [10] - Larger companies and multinationals can mitigate tariff effects, aided by a weaker dollar and lower oil prices [11] Currency & Monetary Policy - A weaker dollar is anticipated over the next 12 months due to expected aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve compared to other central banks [12] - A temporary spike in inflation from tariffs is expected to drive the weaker dollar view [13] - A near-term dollar rally is possible as a counter-trend move, which could negatively impact equities in Q3 [13][14] - The currency market has already largely priced in tariff concerns [15] Equity Market Outlook - US stocks are expected to continue to outperform global stocks [17] - A market cleanout occurred in April, reversing the rate of change in stock performance [17]

Market Trends & Bitcoin - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high just shy of $112,000 [1] - Bitcoin ETFs are seeing billions of dollars flowing in [1] - Bitcoin-related companies like Block and MicroStrategy are rising [1] Currency & Dollar Weakness - The dollar has declined over 10% year-to-date [3] - Lower front-end interest rates, reallocation out of the US, and hedging are driving dollar weakness [4][5] - The dollar's decline may continue due to allocation shifts and historical trends [6][7] - The dollar is at roughly fair value, but currencies never stop at fair value [6] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - Expectation of less Fed independence is causing a change in Fed funds expectations next year, with the market expecting significantly lower interest rates around May/June [10] - Less Fed independence is causing slightly higher longer-term inflation expectations [10] - Foreign investors holding US treasuries in very short tenor bonds (three years and less) may let them expire, impacting demand [12] Treasury & Stablecoins - Relaxing the SLR (supplementary leverage ratio) could help Treasury demand [14] - Increased demand for stablecoins, backed by Treasury bills, could help short-end demand but steepen the yield curve [14][15] - The long end of the yield curve, impacting mortgage rates and business loans, will be hard for the Treasury to control [15] Equity Markets & Valuation - US stocks are fairly richly valued at 22 times 12-month forward price earnings, especially versus peers overseas [17] - Concentration and bullishness are increasing in equity markets [18] - Higher inflation and significantly slower growth are expected later this year [19]

Dollar's Status and Diversification - Bank of America's survey indicates decreasing demand for US assets and investors holding the largest underweight position on the dollar in two decades [1] - While the US dollar is unlikely to lose its reserve currency status entirely, further diversification in its use by central banks is expected [2] - The dollar's share of foreign central bank reserves has decreased from 70% twenty-five years ago to approximately 58% currently, with a potential further decline to 50% [3][4] - An increase in global transactions using currencies other than the dollar is a noteworthy trend [4] US Treasuries and Foreign Demand - Foreigners have been reducing their allocation to US Treasuries for over 10 years, decreasing their ownership from 50% to 30% of the US Treasury market [6] - Despite still buying treasuries, foreign entities are purchasing less relative to the increasing amount being issued, which is concerning given the US's $2 trillion budget deficits [6] Currency Crosses and Market Focus - The yen is a key currency to watch, as its movement is linked to JGB yields, which in turn can influence US Treasuries [8] - The euro is also gaining prominence, with the European Central Bank (ECB) aiming for it to compete with the dollar as a reserve currency [9] Gold as a Reserve Asset - Central banks have significantly increased their gold holdings since the Biden administration restricted Russia's access to US dollars [10] - Gold has become the second-largest foreign central bank reserve holding in terms of value, surpassing the euro [11] - Gold is viewed as an important global reserve asset with further upside potential, beyond just being an inflation hedge or anti-dollar trade [12]

So maybe Art, we'll start big picture here because I'm curious. Art, what is the latest Art Hogan target, year-end target for the S&P. Art, where are we.Yeah, so our target is 6200, which uh doesn't seem that aggressive in the here and now, but certainly felt aggressive uh back in April. So I I would tell you this. I think we've done a good job of going from a defensive first quarter where everyone was piling into things like consumer staples, utilities, healthcare, gold, and treasuries to where now we feel ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the delayed impact of tariffs on US economic data, with inflation expected to peak by Q3 2025 and growth data lagging behind [6][14] - The strategists anticipate a convergence of US growth towards global growth, particularly European growth, which will influence interest rates and currency exchanges [5][11] - The expectation is for US treasury yields to remain range-bound until Q4 2025, with potential for lower yields if growth and inflation data align with forecasts [5][12] Economic Outlook - The report outlines forecasts for US Real GDP growth, indicating modest growth rates ranging from 0.1% to 0.7% on a quarterly basis from 2023 to 2026 [7] - Core PCE inflation is projected to peak in mid-2025, with a significant lag in data response to tariff impacts [6][14] - Emerging markets are expected to experience adjustments due to changes in US economic policy, with cautious outlooks on returns tracking US Treasuries rather than outperforming [11] Central Bank Policies - The report discusses the Federal Reserve's anticipated policy path, suggesting that while the Fed may hold rates steady in 2025, other central banks have more room to ease due to slowing growth and inflation [12][13] - The Bank of Japan faces challenges from tariffs and currency appreciation, with expectations for an extended pause in rate hikes despite resilient inflation [10] Market Volatility - The report notes significant market volatility in April 2025 due to unexpected tariff levels, leading to a shift in equity/rates correlations as markets adjusted to new economic policies [4] - The strategists highlight that the current pause in dollar weakness is temporary, with expectations for renewed dollar strength as the Fed's path becomes clearer [5]