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⚠️ Risks, ETFs & Infra🔹 GANA PayFi was exploited for ~$3.1M after its PancakeSwap liquidity was drained.🔹 @vaneck_us updated its S-1 for a spot BNB ETF (VBNB) without staking rewards.🔹 BNB Chain will drop Erigon by Dec 31, 2025, pushing nodes toward Reth-BSC.6/7 ...

Market Analysis and Predictions - The crypto market is experiencing a downturn, with BTC significantly below its previous high of $126,000 and altcoins performing even worse [1][4] - Historically, BTC has experienced drawdowns averaging around 80% from peak to trough in bear markets [5] - A classic 75% drawdown from a $126,000 high could put BTC's low around $30,000, aligning with previous consolidation areas [7][8] - Past cycles suggest a full bear market for BTC, from peak to recovery, averages 12 to 15 months [15] - If BTC follows historical patterns, the final bottom could be around late 2026 or early 2027 [16] Factors Influencing Market Behavior - The classic 4-year halving cycle may be disrupted by ETFs, institutional flows, and policy decisions [19] - The market has matured with increased liquidity and sophisticated players, potentially reducing volatility compared to earlier cycles [11] - Significant demand has come from consistent ETF flows, with cumulative net inflows of $58 billion representing 66% of BTC's market cap [26][28] - Derivatives markets, particularly options, are playing a larger role in hedging downside risk and damping volatility [30][31][32] Potential Risks and Bearish Scenarios - A proper macro shock, such as a recession or a correction in the AI trade, could trigger a significant sell-off in BTC [35][36][37] - Leveraged digital asset treasuries (DATs) and potential outflows from spot ETFs could exacerbate downward pressure on BTC [39][40] - Remote issues like advancements in quantum computing could negatively impact market sentiment [41][42] Altcoin Performance - ETH has historically been more volatile than BTC in downturns, with drawdowns ranging from 80% to 90% [45] - ETH now has stronger structural support with proof of stake, a growing DeFi ecosystem, and US spot ETFs [45][46] - Other major altcoins are likely to experience even harder and faster drawdowns than BTC [55]

Market Overview & Strategy - Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management suggests scaling back on big cap technology, not removing it entirely, due to run-ups and performance issues [2][3][5] - The firm advocates for a more equal-weighted approach, diversifying into the 493 stocks in the S&P 500 beyond the top seven [4][5] - The firm favors basic, generic companies that can leverage AI for growth, rather than focusing solely on AI companies [7] Private Markets & Investment Opportunities - The firm is increasing client involvement in private markets, including private equity, private credit, and private infrastructure, to capture wealth creation happening before companies go public [8][9][10][11] - Private infrastructure investments now include data centers and cell towers, reflecting evolving opportunities [11][12] Portfolio Allocation & Risk Management - Traditional 60/40 (equity/fixed income) portfolio allocations are evolving, with a potential shift towards 55% in equities and increased allocation to alternatives [12][13] - The firm views municipal bonds as potentially strong investments in the first quarter of next year [13][14] - Clients are showing curiosity and interest in crypto, primarily through ETFs, but are still in the early stages of understanding [14]

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Market Analysis - The industry acknowledges Bitcoin's historical resilience but suggests the current situation presents potentially more significant downside risks compared to previous cycles [1] - The industry identifies leverage, ETFs, and Bitcoin treasury funds as key factors influencing the current market downturn, factors that were largely absent in prior cycles [2] - The industry highlights that the dollar value of losses is substantially greater due to the decline from a peak market cap of 126,000 [2]

Retail Investor Activity - Retail investors have been exceptionally active in the markets this year, showing unprecedented levels of participation [2] - Individual investors are heavily invested in broad-based ETFs like SPY (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) and gold [2] - Retail investors are sticking with the AI trade, despite institutional investors expressing doubts [3] Leverage and Risk - Retail investors are increasingly leveraging their investments [3] - Brokerage account leverage has surpassed $1.1 trillion, reaching record highs since the 1990s [4] - Leveraged ETFs have assets exceeding $140 billion [6] - Leveraged crypto trades have suffered losses recently [6][7] Market Performance and Sentiment - Individual investors who have been cautious are likely feeling positive about the market's performance, with the S&P 500 up 15% [8] - The US market has delivered blockbuster returns over the past two years, with a 15% increase this year [9][10] - Some investors are selling hot momentum stocks like Microstrategy, Robinhood, and Palantir, which are down double digits [11]

Core Insights - All nine global indexes tracked have shown gains through November 24, 2025, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng leading at a year-to-date gain of 31.2% [2] - The second and third positions are held by Canada's TSX with a gain of 22.9% and Japan's Nikkei 225 with a gain of 21.9% [2] - India's BSE SENSEX has the smallest year-to-date gain at 6.2% [2] Index Performance Context - A table is provided that compares each index's current value to its all-time peak, including the date of that peak and the distance from that record level [3] - Historical performance charts illustrate the comparative performance of world markets since significant lows, with specific start dates for various indexes [5][6] Additional Information - The DAXK is tracked as a price-only index for consistency with other indexes that do not include dividends [8]

Bitcoin Facing Worst Month In 3 Years: ETFs Lose Record $3.7Bhttps://t.co/Gh6Fkibkk3 https://t.co/z4UrqQWIXi ...

So, Dom, Bitcoin, as you said, it's back in the black after a choppy start to the week. It's recovered above that $88,000 price threshold. And that rebound does offer some relief after Bitcoin's worst week since February, one that slashed more than 30% from last month's record high and wiped out nearly half a trillion dollars in market cap.But even with the recovery we are seeing this morning, the market remains fragile. spot. Bitcoin ETFs, once a driver of inflows, have now seen more than three and a half ...