I would say hawkish minutes from that October meeting and maybe more hawkish than the market already expected. Many at this meeting in the October meeting suggested it was appropriate to keep the funds rate unchanged for the rest of the year. Only several supported further cuts.These are confusing minutes with a lot of back and forth. Clearly there was a big debate at this meeting about the October cut and about December cuts. Let me go through some of the headlines.Most were concerned that rate cuts could ...

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Economic Overview - The recent government shutdown has created a significant data gap, complicating economic assessments and Federal Reserve decisions [1][2][10][11] - The return of government workers is expected to lead to a flood of economic data, which is crucial for market and policy analysis [2][12] Employment - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs report is a key indicator of the labor market and household earnings, essential for forecasting economic activity [3] - The August jobs report indicated job gains fell to 22,000, missing the consensus of 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [6] - The labor market's stability is under scrutiny, especially with rising unemployment risks highlighted by the Federal Reserve [6] Inflation - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a critical measure of price stability, with the latest report showing a year-over-year increase of 3.0%, driven by energy costs, while Core CPI also cooled to 3.0% [4][7] - The Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions is hindered by the lack of recent CPI data, particularly as inflation pressures may be easing [7][10] Retail Sales - Retail sales data is vital as consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the economy, with retail sales representing nearly one-third of that [5] - August retail sales exceeded expectations, rising 0.6% month-over-month, indicating underlying consumer momentum despite concerns over rising credit card debt and dwindling savings [7] Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - GDP is a key quarterly indicator of economic activity, with the second quarter showing a real GDP increase at an annual rate of 3.8%, surpassing the forecast of 3.3% [8][14] - The upcoming third-quarter GDP estimate will provide insights into economic momentum prior to the shutdown [14] Private Data Insights - Despite the shutdown, private data collection continued, suggesting a weak economic forecast, which may impact the interpretation of upcoming reports [9] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's recent decisions have been made without complete data, leading to a reactionary stance rather than a proactive approach [10][12] - The delay in data reporting increases the risk of policy errors as the Fed navigates a complex economic landscape [12]

The Reserve Bank of Australia pursues a flexible approach to its dual mandate of sustaining employment and reining in inflation, board member Renee Fry-McKibbin wrote in a column in the Australian Financial Review that pushed back at recent commentary https://t.co/g2mm0ygNsq ...

Employment Impact - Study asserts AI's impact on employment is negligible [1]

RT William Branson Donahue (@realwilldonahue)Ridiculous. 2.14 million students graduated with bachelor’s in 2024. BLS reported ONLY 868k were employed by Oct 2024. We simultaneously approved 399,395 H-1B visas.So while 60% of Gen Z couldn’t find jobs, 399,395 foreigners took jobs from 1,272,000 Americans. And you wonder why Gen Z is revolting while we’re offered 50 year mortgages. END H-1B VISAS. ...

Employment Data & Reporting - September jobs report is expected to be released next week [1] - October employment report will be partially available, with payroll site data calculable but household survey incomplete [1] - October unemployment rate will not be known [1] Employee Matters - Essential employees were brought back early to ensure furloughed employees received their checks promptly [2] - Aggressive efforts were made to expedite check delivery to employees [2]

Labor Market Analysis - The government shutdown in October has created uncertainty regarding the availability and quality of key economic data, specifically inflation and employment figures [1][2] - November employment data collection is delayed and may be of questionable quality due to the Thanksgiving holiday, impacting market understanding of the economy's health [3][4] - Alternative indicators suggest the labor market is holding up, with Brailio Labs showing an increase in total non-farm payrolls and jobless claims remaining low [5][6] - The economy is likely still performing adequately, but a clearer picture may take another month to emerge due to data collection disruptions [6] - Economists are widening their data sources due to the unavailability of regular data from the BLS, CPI, and non-farm payrolls [9] Economic Risks and Federal Reserve Implications - The consensus among economists leans towards labor weakness as a greater risk than higher inflation in the coming months [9] - Job growth slowdown in the past 6 months may be attributed to slowing immigration, impacting labor supply rather than labor demand [10][11] - The Federal Reserve published a paper expecting job growth over the next 12 months to be 30,000, a significant decline due to slowing immigration [12] - The Federal Reserve's ability to address the situation is limited if the issue is labor supply, as opposed to labor demand [13]

Susan Collins, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, during a Bloomberg Television interview at the Kansas City Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Moran, Wyoming, US, on Friday, Aug. 22, 2025.Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins on Wednesday said she will be reluctant to support further interest rate cuts anytime soon with inflation still high and policymakers hampered by a lack of data due to the government shutdown."Given my baselin ...

Economic Indicators - Alternative data sources exist for employment, housing, and goods prices [1] - Services sector data is more challenging to measure using private-sector data due to its varied nature [1]