Welcome to CNBC. com. I'm Frank Holland, anchor of Worldwide Exchange.We're looking at the ETF market today. Net inflows for the year according to Vetify, have reached $795 billion. Joining me to discuss investor sentiment for ETFs and also uh to share a few top picks.I'm joined by Tyler Rosen, Coen and Steer, senior vice president, portfolio manager. Tyler, thank you for joining us. >> Thanks so much for having me this morning.I want to start off just talking about the fact that the ETF market net inflows ...

Market Drivers for Gold - Gold's price surge is attributed to anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, global bond market trends, and central bank activity [1][2] - Three simultaneous factors influence gold: questions surrounding Fed independence and the dollar's future amid rising crypto interest; uncertainty about interest rate paths with potential cuts; and fiscal concerns [3] - A significant battle looms in the Supreme Court regarding the validity of President Trump's tariffs, impacting the budget deficit [4] Investment Strategies - A range of instruments can be used to access gold, including ETFs, gold equities, and alternatives like silver [5] - Platinum and palladium markets have rallied in tandem with gold, presenting potential investment opportunities [6] Metals Market Outlook - Potential inflation across the entire metals complex is anticipated [6] - The industrial metals complex is expected to perform strongly into 2026 and beyond [6]

Markets may be reacting to the data but maybe to the idea of a new Fed board on the way with an 88% that is 89% higher than it was before. Probability of a first cut in September 48% for a second cut in October. So kind of toying with maybe it happens in October more sure of the with the 85% it happens in December.The result of the data was to boost the CNBC Moody's rapid update tracking forecast for the third quarter of 3.3%. pretty healthy, showing the economy and inflation accelerating amid curiously cal ...

All right, Torson, same question for you as we had for an earlier guest. Uh, Jay Pal said he believes it's going to come in at 2.9%. So, is this is this report actually meaningful if it comes in in line or even cooler.Is the jobs report really the big show when it comes to fed rate cuts. No, this is very, very important because as you said, the setup at the moment is that we have a slowing labor market which Chris Waller talked about yesterday in Miami. Chris Waller even had a footnote in his speech where h ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the US rates market and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, particularly in light of fiscal and trade uncertainties being reduced and labor market risks increasing [2][3]. Core Views and Arguments 1. **Federal Reserve Rate Cuts**: - A total of 75 basis points (bp) of Fed cuts are expected through early 2026, bringing the fed funds rate to a nominal neutral level of 3.5-3.75% [2]. - Current pricing for a September cut is approximately 22bp, which is considered fair based on recent remarks from Chair Powell and upcoming employment and inflation data [2]. 2. **Inflation and Economic Growth**: - Higher tariffs and lower immigration are seen as negative supply shocks, leading to higher inflation and slower growth, but not a recession [3]. - Spot inflation is projected to rise to 3.5%, influenced by tariffs, a weakening dollar, and a potentially dovish Fed [9]. 3. **Yield Curve Dynamics**: - A hawkish Fed outlook is expected to flatten the yield curve, but higher term premia may steepen forward curves [4]. - Political pressure for easier Fed policy could lead to a twist-steepening in spot curves, with long-end yields absorbing inflation and fiscal risks [4]. 4. **Treasury Issuance**: - Anticipated increases in nominal coupon sizes starting in May 2026, with net coupon issuance expected to reach $1.6-1.8 trillion per year over the next several years [11]. 5. **Quantitative Tightening (QT)**: - QT is expected to conclude by the end of Q1 2026, with MBS principal payments likely reinvested into short-dated Treasuries at a pace of $15-20 billion per month [12]. 6. **Swap Spreads**: - Modest widening in medium and long-end SOFR swap spreads is expected, with a steeper spread curve anticipated [8]. Additional Important Insights - **Funding Markets**: - Fed ONRRP balances are expected to fall to $0-30 billion by the end of Q3, with SOFR potentially moving above IORB due to higher opportunity costs for banks [10]. - **Regulatory Reforms**: - Regulatory reforms are seen as a potential tailwind for Treasury demand, with shifts in Treasury issuance likely to ease pressure on longer-term yields [8]. - **Market Risks**: - Key risks to the investment thesis include labor market slowdowns, debt-management policies, and regulatory measures to bolster domestic demand for USTs [3]. - **Analyst Certification**: - The views expressed in the report reflect the personal views of the lead analysts, with no compensation received for specific recommendations [16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the US rates market and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks.

🇺🇸 NEW: Morgan Stanley has revised its outlook, predicting 25 bps Fed rate cuts in both September and December 2025. https://t.co/y2hwd4bfm3 ...

JUST IN: Traders now fully pricing in two Fed rate cuts in 2025. ...

🚨JUST IN: Traders reduce bets on two Fed rate cuts this year.All eyes on Powell’s Jackson Hole speech tomorrow for clues. https://t.co/qBYdSVRrwu ...

Group 1 - The ICE BofA MOVE Index, which measures implied volatility in the Treasury market, has reached its lowest level since early 2022, indicating a significant reduction in bond market volatility [1] - This decline in volatility occurs as the Federal Reserve prepares for upcoming monetary policy decisions, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding macro drivers affecting various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and cryptocurrencies [1] - It highlights the role of empirical data in shaping investment narratives and the necessity for clear communication of financial information to diverse audiences [1]

Markets are primed for Fed rate cuts. Well, at least one imminent quarter-point ease. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a better than 90% probability that the FOMC will resume its cutting cycle next month, and next Friday's Jackson Hole Analyst's Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation fo ...