Group 1 - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to play a significant role in market dynamics, particularly with the announcement of a new Fed chair and the resolution of the Lisa Cook case, which could influence interest rates and market expectations [2][3][12] - The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet is anticipated to impact broader markets, with liquidity measures contributing to rising gold prices as real interest rates decline [2][10] - The market's response to the new Fed chair nominee remains uncertain, with different candidates potentially having varying effects on equity markets, particularly regarding their stance on quantitative easing and balance sheet management [6][7][12] Group 2 - The steepening of the yield curve is likely to continue, driven by expectations of rate cuts and economic stimulation, which could lead to increased investments and GDP growth [10][11] - Political cycles and the need for stimulative policies may exert pressure on gold prices and the dollar, with market participants wary of how the new Fed chair will interact with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the White House [8][12] - The collaboration between Japan and the US to expedite investments is expected to contribute to economic expansion, further influencing the yield curve dynamics [11]

Mortgage Rates Overview - The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage decreased to 6.18% from 6.21% last week, down from 6.85% a year ago [1][2] - The average rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.50% from 5.47% last week, compared to 6% a year ago [2] Influencing Factors - Mortgage rates are influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, bond market expectations for the economy and inflation, and generally follow the 10-year Treasury yield [2][4] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.15% from 4.12% last week [3] Market Trends - The average 30-year mortgage rate has remained steady since dropping to 6.17% on October 30, its lowest level in over a year [3] - Home listings have significantly increased from last year, with many sellers lowering their asking prices due to longer selling times [5] Buyer Challenges - Affordability remains a significant challenge for many potential homeowners, particularly first-time buyers without existing home equity [6] - Economic uncertainty and job market conditions are causing many potential buyers to hesitate [6] Sales Performance - Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes rose in November compared to the previous month but slowed year-over-year for the first time since May, with home sales down 0.5% for the first 11 months of the year compared to last year [7] - Economists predict that the average rate on a 30-year mortgage will remain slightly above 6% next year [7]

Company Insights - Weyerhaeuser is a timber company that has seen a decline of approximately 20% this year, mirroring the drop in timber prices [7] - The company is the largest timber holder in the United States, with the value of its timber exceeding the current market value of the company itself [7] - Weyerhaeuser's profits are significantly tied to new home building, which has been affected by rising interest rates [8] Market Outlook - The potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts is viewed as crucial for the market rally in the upcoming year, as these cuts could enhance liquidity in the housing market [5][9] - A cautious optimism exists regarding the likelihood of rate cuts, which could improve the outlook for the home building sector and, consequently, for timber demand [8][9] - The company offers a 4% dividend yield, indicating a favorable investment opportunity with significant upside potential [8]

Core Insights - Gold Spot U.S. Dollar reached a new record high of $4,497.82 per ounce, testing the psychological barrier of $4,500, which has led to a significant quantitative breakout for three gold-linked stocks [1] Gold Price Movement - Gold prices have increased by 33.08% over the last six months and 71.58% over the past year, with the latest price hovering around $4,482.96 per ounce [9] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to the U.S. administration's intensified oil blockade of Venezuela and the prospect of continued Federal Reserve rate cuts, with probabilities for three rate cuts in 2026 nearing 40% [9] Stock Performance - Alamos Gold Inc. (NYSE:AGI) has seen its momentum percentile rise from 89.61 to 94.06, with shares advancing by 110.23% year-to-date and 120.65% over the last year [8] - Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (NYSE:WPM) increased its momentum percentile from 88.00 to 92.89, with stock performance showing a 110.45% increase year-to-date and 113.24% over the last year [8] - Osisko Gold Royalties Inc. (NYSE:OR) moved from 88.99 to 92.62 in momentum percentile, with shares rising by 98.07% year-to-date and 102.41% over the last year [8] Market Ranking - All three companies—Alamos Gold, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Osisko Gold Royalties—have surged into the top 10th percentile of Benzinga Edge's Stock Ranking, indicating a powerful upward trend relative to peers [2][3]

Bloomberg Gold and silver soared to all-time highs, as escalating geopolitical tensions and bets on further US rate cuts added momentum to the best annual performance in more than four decades. Bullion climbed more than 1.5% to surpass the previous record of $4,381 an ounce set in October, while silver rallied as much as 3.4%, closing in on $70 an ounce, extending gains that have put both metals firmly on course for their strongest annual performance since 1979. Most Read from Bloomberg The latest pus ...

Group 1: Company Updates - Newrez Wholesale has enhanced its partner protection program, offering 18 months of solicitation protection for approved broker partners starting January 1, 2026, and 30-month protection for RezClub members [1] - Arc Home's Closed End Second product offers strong execution with pricing up to 107.5 on eligible scenarios, with loan amounts up to 500,000 and CLTVs up to 80% [2] - Spring EQ is maintaining momentum into 2026 by offering premium pricing on all products, allowing customers to lower closing costs and choose higher rates [2] Group 2: Freddie and Fannie Updates - The future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remains uncertain, with potential privatization seen as inevitable but the timeline unclear [4][5] - Freddie Mac has introduced a new API to streamline the loan delivery process within Loan Selling Advisor [7] - Fannie Mae's December Selling Guide includes updates such as expanded financing options for HomeStyle® Refresh and removal of renovation caps for manufactured homes [8] Group 3: Market Insights - U.S. Treasuries rebounded sharply, supported by global and domestic signals, with inflation cooling in November, indicating potential Fed rate cuts in March and June [10] - Mortgage rates fell slightly in the latest survey, with the 30-year and 15-year rates at 6.21% and 5.47%, respectively, showing significant year-over-year decreases [11] - Ginnie Mae is channeling a large share of mortgage credit to first-time home buyers, with nearly 70% of its 30-year issuance this year going to this demographic [12]

Core Insights - Recent inflation data and comments from Fed officials have increased expectations for interest rate cuts, with markets now pricing a 25.5% likelihood of rates being lowered to 3.25-3.5% by January 2026, up from 15.3% a month earlier [1] Inflation Data - Softer U.S. inflation data has strengthened expectations for two or more Fed rate cuts in the coming year, with November's underlying inflation growing at the slowest pace since early 2021 and headline CPI rising 2.7% year over year, below forecasts [2] Fed Leadership and Rate Cuts - Comments from President Trump suggest that the next Fed chair will favor lower interest rates, contributing to market bets on additional rate cuts next year [4] - Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that the Fed has room to ease interest rates, citing signs of weakening in the labor market, and suggested that any additional cuts might occur at a moderate pace [5] Financial Sector Impact - Anticipated Fed interest rate cuts in 2026 are expected to provide a significant boost to the financial sector, as lower rates could reduce capital costs for banks and enhance loan activity [7] - The Dow Jones U.S. Financial Services Index has gained 19.70% over the past year and 2.41% month to date, indicating strong performance in the sector [8] Consumer Discretionary Sector - Lower interest rates are expected to improve consumer access to credit and boost spending power, positively impacting profit margins in the consumer discretionary sector, which has seen a 7.17% increase year to date and 2.47% month to date [10] Small-Cap Stocks - Small-cap stocks, which rely heavily on external borrowings, are likely to benefit significantly from lower interest rates, allowing for increased capital availability and refinancing of existing debt at cheaper rates [12]

Market Overview - Stocks are expected to close the week positively, supported by cooler inflation data that suggests lower borrowing costs may be on the horizon [1] - S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 contracts are up 0.2%, with OpenAI reportedly raising $100 billion in new capital, alleviating funding pressures in the AI sector [1][6] - Bitcoin is also experiencing gains, while Treasuries are down, and gold is near its all-time high, with predictions it could exceed $5,000 [1][9] Company-Specific Developments - Oracle shares rose 6% in premarket trading after TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, signed agreements to create a US joint venture majority-owned by American investors, with Oracle leading the investment group [1][6] - Nike shares fell 11% after the company projected a sales decline due to weak performance in China and issues with the Converse brand [5] - KB Home's shares dropped 5% after the company's fiscal fourth-quarter profit missed analysts' expectations, and its outlook for fiscal 2026 housing revenue was below expectations [5] - WhiteFiber shares surged 20% following a 10-year co-location agreement with Nscale Global Holdings [5] Sector Performance - The Mag 7 stocks, including Nvidia and Tesla, are mostly higher, indicating a rebound in tech stocks after previous sell-offs due to financing concerns in the AI supply chain [3] - Defense stocks are in focus as the EU agreed to loan Ukraine €90 billion ($105 billion) to support its economy amid ongoing conflict [5] - Cloud infrastructure stocks, such as CoreWeave, are rebounding after a previous sell-off, with CoreWeave climbing 5% [3] Economic Indicators - The US economic calendar includes November existing home sales and December University of Michigan sentiment, which could impact market sentiment [1][16] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 13% return from a broadening bull market in 2026, with growth supported by Fed rate cuts and positive economic conditions [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices remained stable during the morning Asian session, buoyed by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which typically increase the attractiveness of gold as a non-interest-bearing asset [1] Group 1 - The stability of gold prices is linked to the anticipation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Rate cuts generally enhance the appeal of gold, as it does not yield interest [1]

The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage edged lower this week, staying relatively close to its low for the year. The decline brings the average long-term mortgage rate to 6.21% from 6.22% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. A year ago, the rate averaged 6.72%. Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, popular with homeowners refinancing their home loans, also fell this week. The rate averaged 5.47%, down from 5.54% last week. A year ago, it averaged 5.92%, Freddie Mac said. ...