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Sea（SE）_2025 年三季度业绩回顾_增长势头强劲且市场份额稳固；买入

2025-11-12 02:20

Summary of Sea Ltd. (SE) 3Q25 Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: Sea Ltd. (SE) - **Market Cap**: $98.4 billion - **Enterprise Value**: $93.6 billion - **Current Price**: $155.05 - **Target Price**: $218.00 - **Upside Potential**: 40.6% [1][2][3] Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Performance**: - Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) increased by 8% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) and 28% year-over-year (yoy) to $32.2 billion [1][15] - Adjusted EBITDA was $258 million, with a margin of 0.6% of GMV [15][29] - Management raised FY25 GMV growth guidance from 20% to 25% [1][15] Core Business Insights Shopee (E-commerce Segment) - **Growth Strategy**: - Focus on growth and profitability, with an emphasis on service quality investments in logistics and VIP subscriptions [15][29] - Ads take rate increased by 80 basis points yoy to approximately 3% [15] - VIP subscribers reached 3.5 million (+75% qoq), contributing 10% of GMV in Q3 [15] - **Logistics Investments**: - Shopee is enhancing its logistics capabilities, offering multiple service tiers to cater to different customer segments [15] - Improved delivery times, with 1 in 3 parcels in Sao Paulo delivered next day [15] - **Competitive Landscape**: - Limited impact from competition in Brazil and Taiwan, with Shopee maintaining positive adjusted EBITDA [1][15][16] Garena (Gaming Segment) - **Performance**: - Outperformance driven by collaborations for Free Fire, achieving over 30% yoy bookings growth [2][21] - Gross billings grew by 27% qoq and 51% yoy [21] - **User Engagement**: - Strong uptick in user engagement for Free Fire and Arena of Valor, indicating positive momentum into Q4 [21][29] Fintech (Monee) - **Loan Growth**: - Loan book increased by 70% yoy to $7.9 billion, driven by product and geographical expansion [2][29] - Active users reached 34 million, with significant growth in Thailand and Brazil [29] Financial Estimates and Valuation - **Revenue Projections**: - Revenue estimates for 2025 increased to $22.57 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $3.48 billion [30] - **Valuation Metrics**: - P/E ratio projected to decrease from 35.0 in 2025 to 20.2 in 2027 [3][8] - Free cash flow yield expected to decline from 6.7% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2025 [8] Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks**: - Increased competition, macroeconomic and regulatory risks, execution challenges in Brazil, and potential inability to derive synergies across segments [32][33] - **Investment Thesis**: - Sea Ltd. is positioned as a market leader in gaming, e-commerce, and digital finance in Asia, with significant growth potential in Latin America [34][35] Conclusion - **Recommendation**: - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, with a target price of $218, reflecting strong growth prospects and market leadership in its sectors [1][34]