Just a few more government shutdowns then up only*Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone):GUESS WHO’S BACK?Kalshi now assigns a 43% probability of a U.S. government shutdown on January 31, 2026, the highest level since the 2025 crisis.Goldman Sachs estimates a 40–50% risk, while JPMorgan puts the odds at 20–40% for a lapse in early 2026. Both firms say a short https://t.co/4AkcBdQhG8 ...

Core Insights - Kroger reports that middle-income households are increasingly cutting back on grocery spending, making smaller and more frequent shopping trips to manage their budgets [3][4][9] - The pressure on low-income households has been ongoing, with both groups reducing discretionary purchases such as meat, snacks, and alcohol due to inflation and economic concerns [4][5][9] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are responding to various economic pressures, including a sluggish job market, government shutdowns, interruptions in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, and rising inflation [5] - Middle-income shoppers are now exhibiting stress behaviors similar to those of low-income households, indicating a broader trend of budget stretching across different income levels [9] Retailer Responses - Dollar General has seen a 7.6% year-over-year growth in its $1 sections, highlighting the importance of low-priced products for low-income shoppers [6] - Dollar Tree experienced a drop in traffic due to "sticker shock" from price increases but noted that all of its 4.2% year-over-year growth in comparable store sales came from higher-priced purchases [8] Market Implications - Retailers are navigating rising costs and tariffs, with some raising prices, but excessive price increases could deter even middle-income shoppers from traditional stores [7]

'Business conditions remain soft as a result of higher costs from tariffs, the government shutdown, and increased global uncertainty' ...

US consumers showed signs of fatigue leading up to the longest government shutdown, and their outlook has worsened ever since, sending a note of caution heading into the holiday-shopping season https://t.co/0j1FfhmCKG ...

'We're just going to go through this again': Americans fear second government shutdown https://t.co/r5naoTeRbj ...

We're joined by Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley. Really great to have you with us on this first day after the government shut down. Mike, now that it's over, now what.Good morning. Good morning, Nathan. Yeah.Well, I think most people probably won't feel the effects. I'm sure the government employees are happy to get back to work. And look, I think from our standpoint, from a market standpoint, I mean, this is the longer that this kind of, you know, lagged into the holidays, it de ...

Impact of Government Shutdown - The Small Business Administration (SBA) was prevented from delivering over $5 billion in loans to approximately 10,000 small businesses due to the government shutdown [1][2] - The shutdown potentially cost the American economy $100 billion in economic activity and 60,000 lost jobs [5] - The SBA is rapidly processing delayed loans to reopen Main Street [3] Economic Outlook and Small Business Confidence - Small business confidence is at a 7-year high and above its 52-year average, even amid the shutdown [8][9] - GDP growth was 3.8% in the last quarter, and wages are growing faster than inflation for the first time in four years [6] - $17 trillion is expected to come into the country, much of which will be deployed at small businesses [6] Labor and AI - The percentage of small businesses mentioning labor quality as their single most important problem jumped to 27%, up nine points month over month [11] - The SBA is focused on skilled labor opportunities, working with Secretary Chavez Dreamer to support an initiative to have over 1 million apprentices [13] - AI is expected to level the playing field for small businesses, enabling them to compete with larger businesses [16] Trade and Investment - The United States is a source of about 60% of the world's capital, being invested at unprecedented levels [19] - Over $100 billion in total capacity is going out to small businesses, reflecting their confidence to invest, borrow, grow, and hire [20] - Fair trade policies are expected to bring back industries and enhance national security [24]

From @WSJopinion: Ordinary Democrats didn’t demand a shutdown. Left-wing nonprofits did. It was all for show, literally, writes Barton Swaim. https://t.co/nVz5VTWMXm ...

Well, thank you very much. This is a big day, a big night. And it's very important what has taken place, because we've seen how good government can be and how bad government can be if people don't know what they're doing.For the past 43 days, Democrats in Congress shut down the government of the United States in an attempt to extort American taxpayers for hundreds of billions of dollars for illegal aliens and people that came into our country illegally from gangs, from prisons, from mental institutions. The ...

Government Shutdown & Policy Stance - Senator Fetterman broke ranks with the Democratic Party to help end the government shutdown [1] - Senator Fetterman voted with Republicans over a dozen times during the shutdown [1] - Senator Fetterman opposes government shutdowns, viewing them as harmful to food security and air travel safety [4][5] - Senator Fetterman advocates for keeping the government open to ensure SNAP benefits and healthcare tax credits continue [10] Healthcare & Social Programs - Approximately 2 million Pennsylvanians rely on SNAP benefits [6][9] - Around 400,000 Pennsylvanians receive healthcare tax credits [6] - Democrats initially designed healthcare subsidies to expire at the end of the year [6][11] Political Alignment & Transparency - Senator Fetterman states he votes with the Democratic Party 906% of the time [17] - Senator Fetterman emphasizes the importance of a "big tent party" and allowing for disagreements within the Democratic Party [18] - Senator Fetterman supports releasing all Epstein-related emails [12][14] Personal Memoir & Mental Health - Senator Fetterman's memoir, "Unfettered," discusses his experiences with depression and suicidal thoughts [1][14][19] - The memoir aims to encourage those suffering from depression to "stay in the game" [14]