President Donald Trump narrowing his choices to replace Fed Chair Jay Powell to three or four names, saying he'll announce his nominee a little earlier than initially expected. Joining us now is the former economic adviser to President George W Bush, Mark Sumlin. Mark, of course, your name has been in the mix as well over the past week or so.Welcome to the program. Let's just start with the base case, the case for rate reductions. Mark, what do you think the strongest case there is right now.Right. I think ...

Real Estate Development - New York City Council approved rezoning of a 42-block section in Manhattan [1] - Rezoning paves the way for the development of over 9,500 new housing units [1]

Bond Market & Interest Rates - The short end of the market is likely to experience one or two rate cuts before year-end, which could provide some support [1] - High credit card interest rates, around 25%, are a key concern [1] - Housing market is identified as the critical missing piece in the economy [2] - Treasury Secretary's comments on lowering rates may have had some effect [3] - Market participants experience a sense of relief after CPI releases, even if slightly warmer than expected, leading to lower yields for twos and tens maturities [4] Dollar Index & Speculative Trading - The dollar index is sensitive to the administration's pressure for lower rates due to its wider audience of speculative trading [5] - A close below 98 on the dollar index is expected to maintain selling pressure, according to technicians [5] - The dollar index has retraced a significant portion of its bounce from multi-year lows seen in early July [5]

Economic Concerns & Tax Policy - Raising taxes on the wealthiest New Yorkers, who already pay roughly 15% of their income between city and state taxes, could drive them away [1] - The focus should be on delivering services to constituents by raising the most revenue possible without chasing businesses and high-income taxpayers out of the city [1] - Affordability is a key issue, with many working families being chased out of New York City due to the high cost of housing, groceries, and child care [2] - Raising taxes is not necessarily the answer to affordability issues, as billionaires may leave and spend their money elsewhere [3] Business & Job Creation - Companies like Goldman Sachs are creating new jobs in Dallas, and Blackstone is not building a new headquarters in New York [4] - Making the city more onerous for businesses could lead to a smaller tax revenue pie [9] Housing Market & Affordability - Many people are struggling to pay for housing and groceries [5] - Child care costs of $25,000 per year are a national issue [5] - Increasing housing supply is seen as a way to give young people an opportunity to have their own place [20] - The United States Senate unanimously passed a housing bill to increase housing supply [14][15] - Deregulating everything, including rent stabilization and rent control, could bring down prices in New York [19] - First-time home buyers are now 38 years old, compared to 28 years old in the 1980s and 1990s [20]

Trump and Epstein Controversy - Trump changed his story about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, initially citing Epstein stealing employees from Mara Lago as the reason for their falling out, but previously stating it was because Epstein was a "creep" [2][3] - Trump acknowledged that Virginia Duay, an Epstein victim, was among the young women who worked at his spa and were "stolen" by Epstein [4][6] - Trump's comments contradict previous White House denials, which claimed Epstein was banned from Mara Lago for being a "creep" [7] - Senate Democrats are demanding answers regarding a secret meeting between Glenn Maxwell and Trump's Deputy Attorney General, Todd Blanch, and are concerned about a potential pardon for Maxwell [8] - The House Oversight Committee declined Glenn Maxwell's request for immunity in exchange for testimony [9] - New polling data indicates that 58% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the Epstein files, and 86% support releasing the files [10] Political and Legal Implications - Senate Democrats are insisting that the Justice Department commit to denying a pardon or commutation to Maxwell in exchange for information [9] - Congressman Raja Krishna Murphy expressed concern that Trump's lawyer could influence Maxwell's testimony [10] - Trump is seeking to depose Rupert Murdoch in connection to a lawsuit over the Wall Street Journal's reporting on the Epstein birthday book [9] - Senator Dick Durban is demanding transcripts and recordings of Trump's Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanch's prison interviews with Glenn Maxwell [11] Economic and Policy Issues - Senator Lisa Blunt Rochester discussed a bipartisan housing package aimed at increasing housing supply and affordability [13][16][17] - Senator Lisa Blunt Rochester criticized Trump's economic policies, including tariffs and cuts to Medicaid [22][23] - 20 states are suing the Trump administration over demands for deeply personal data from over 41 million Americans receiving food assistance (SNAP) [30][33] - Washington State Attorney General Nick Brown stated that the Trump administration is attacking people who are simply hungry and need help [35] North Carolina Senate Race - Roy Cooper announced his candidacy for Senate in North Carolina and raised $3.4 million in 24 hours [12] - Democrats see an opportunity to pick up a Senate seat in North Carolina, left open by the retirement of Republican Senator Tom Tillis [12] - Anderson Clayton, chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party, believes Roy Cooper can flip the Senate seat in 2026 [12] - North Carolinians are feeling the impact of Republican policies in Washington DC, including rising insurance rates and the threat of tariffs [13]

Market Trend & Outlook - Piper Sandler's technical analysis indicates the market trend is still higher, targeting 6,600 for the year-end objective [4][5] - The market is making new highs despite some negative sentiment and down AI numbers, suggesting a "hated market" [5][6] - The S&P 500 has broken out to all-time new highs, contrasting with previous concerns of a potential breakdown to 2,000 levels [3] Valuation & Market Structure - Valuations matter, but the market has been shrinking with 20%-25% fewer stocks due to share buybacks [7] - The pool of available equity has decreased from 8,000 to about 3,800, while the amount of capital has increased [9] - Historical price-to-earnings ratios may not be as relevant due to the shrinking market [8] Cyclical Stocks & Housing Market - Cyclical stocks, including homebuilders like Horton (better-than-expected results), LAR, BLD, and BLDR, are showing constructive patterns and reversing downtrends [11][12] - Housing numbers are good, suggesting a stronger consumer environment than people are thinking [10][12] Commodity & Industrial Signals - Copper is breaking out to an all-time new high, signaling a healthy economy and a meaningful pickup in the industrials [12][13]

From @WSJopinion: If we fail to act on housing, millions of young Americans will lose their best chance to build wealth. Their families and communities will be worse off, and so will the country, writes William Galston. https://t.co/TmwUrufrjF ...

Real Estate Initiatives - A French region is offering houses for €1 [1]

This French Region Is Offering €1 Houses https://t.co/fVtr96Jcu3 https://t.co/stZ6W2SVll ...

Recidivism & Re-entry Challenges - The industry acknowledges the high recidivism rate, with 70% of individuals returning to prison within 3 years of release [5][6] - Lack of opportunities, including employment and housing discrimination due to criminal records, contributes to re-entry difficulties [2][3] - The industry recognizes the sense of hopelessness and anxiety experienced by formerly incarcerated individuals due to societal expectations and internal struggles [4][5] Importance of Opportunity & Support - Meaningful opportunities are crucial for successful re-entry and reducing recidivism [6] - Fair opportunities should not be based on chance or luck but should be actively created by communities [24][25] - Community support, including employment and housing, plays a vital role in the successful reintegration of formerly incarcerated individuals [23][25] Overcoming Barriers & Individual Impact - Individuals can overcome barriers with the help of educators, employers, and landlords who are willing to offer opportunities [7][12][18] - The value of a second chance is highlighted through examples of individuals who provided support and believed in the speaker's potential [15][17][20] - Small acts of kindness and acceptance can significantly impact the trajectory of formerly incarcerated individuals and reduce recidivism [25][26]