We're back on Morning Trade Line. Let's focus on homebuilders. Now, LAR is lower this morning after reporting earnings.And here is some of what the other home builder stocks are doing today off the back of that. So, as you can see, the most pronounced losses being felt by LAR as it gets punished off the back of this earnings report. We'll get to that and the specifics in a second.KB Home is down fractionally and so is PY Group, but Toll Brothers actually is a little bright spot here, sitting up at 1 and a h ...

Time for the final trade. Julie be too chicken for home builders. Installed Building Products has a great position among the homebuilders and I think they're better positioned.Bono, >> if you're looking into the broadening out trade, I think you want to just move away from the tech concentration and not into, as Julie pointed out, unprofitable names. RSP over IWM. >> Courtney, we were talking about housing, how Home Depot can actually be a really good way of playing that.I would use Home Depot as my final t ...

Joining me right now, Jim Thorne, chief market strategist, Wellington Altus Private Wealth is with me. Um, I know we're going to get to an array of stories, including even Bitcoin and and a play that you have there, but first, let's just talk big picture and how you think the markets are behaving. >> Well, we're really close to 7,000, which is my year end target. Um, you know, uh, we're in a bullish phase, 8,000 to 8,400 by the end of next year.I think the big trade for next year is when do you put the earl ...

The year-end rally in equities is at risk from a Federal Reserve outlook that’s too cautious on the economy, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists. With the S&P 500 Index within striking distance of a record high, investors are confident about a best-case scenario where the Fed cuts interest rates alongside falling inflation and economic growth remains resilient. Most Read from Bloomberg But that optimism stands to be tested if the central bank sends dovish signals at the meeting next week, acc ...

Core Insights - Trane Technologies plc (TT) is a global leader in sustainable HVAC solutions and transport refrigeration systems, with a market capitalization of approximately $93.1 billion [1] Stock Performance - TT shares are currently trading about 11.9% below their July high of $476.18, with a slight decline of nearly 1.5% over the past three months, which is less severe compared to the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) that dropped 5% in the same period [2] - Over the past 52 weeks, TT has posted a marginal gain, while XHB has decreased by 11.1%. Year-to-date, TT stock has advanced 13.6%, outperforming XHB's 4.5% rise [3] Earnings Report - On October 30, TT reported Q3 2025 earnings with an adjusted EPS of $3.88, reflecting a 15.1% increase year-over-year and surpassing analyst expectations of $3.78. This was supported by an operating margin expansion to 20.3% from 18.8% [4] - Revenue for the quarter grew 5.6% annually to $5.74 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of $5.79 billion. Despite this, management reaffirmed its full-year outlook, projecting approximately 7% revenue growth for fiscal year 2025 and adjusted continuing EPS of $12.95 to $13.05 [5] Competitive Position - Relative performance indicates TT's stronger execution in a challenging industry environment, as its competitor AAON, Inc. has seen a significant decline of 33.6% over the past 52 weeks and 20.8% year-to-date [6]

Core Insights - The market has shown resilience despite a 15% decline in Nvidia's stock, indicating a broader market strength and rotation into real economy stocks [2][4][9] - Nvidia's prominence in the market is likened to a celebrity, influencing market narratives and investor sentiment [6][7] - The current market environment suggests a potential shift from a narrow focus on AI stocks to a more diversified investment approach, particularly in consumer discretionary and regional banks [12][13] Company Insights - Nvidia's stock price rose from $80 in April to $200, creating significant wealth for investors, but has since seen a 15% drop from its highs [4] - Nvidia is a major player in the S&P 500, comprising approximately 8% of the index, which amplifies its market impact [7] - The stock's recent performance reflects crowded positions and heightened emotions among investors, contributing to its volatility [3][7] Industry Insights - The broader market is beginning to show signs of recovery in sectors beyond technology, with consumer discretionary stocks gaining traction despite historically low consumer sentiment [11][12] - The performance of regional banks and homebuilders is noteworthy, indicating a potential rebound in interest rate-sensitive sectors [12][13] - Market sentiment is shifting, with Fed rate cuts becoming a more significant concern for investors compared to AI spending, as indicated by a recent Twitter poll [14][15]

Market Overview - Wall Street experienced a significant rebound after a volatile week, driven by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials suggesting potential rate cuts next month [1][2] - The probability of a December rate cut surged to approximately 70%, up from 25% the previous day, indicating a rapid shift in market expectations [3] Sector Performance - Interest-sensitive stocks rallied strongly, with the small-cap Russell 2000 rising by 2.8%, marking its best single-day gain since late August [3] - All 11 S&P 500 sectors saw gains, particularly basic materials and consumer discretionary, both increasing by 2.6% [3] Homebuilders - Homebuilder stocks, tracked by the State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilder ETF (NYSE:XHB), surged by 5.3%, the best performance since April 9, with D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE:DHI) climbing over 7% [4] Treasury Yields - Following the dovish shift, Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year note dropping to 4.05%, the lowest level since late October [4] AI Sector - Despite the overall positive market tone, investors continued to sell off AI stocks with high valuations, with Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) declining by 5% on Friday, extending its weekly loss to 10% [5] Commodities - Oil prices decreased by 2% after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed openness to peace talks, raising concerns about oversupply [6] Cryptocurrency - The cryptocurrency market remained under pressure, with Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) falling to an intraday low of $80,000 before recovering to $85,000, down 1.7% for the day [7] Major Indices Performance - Major U.S. indices showed positive performance, with the Russell 2000 up 2.7%, Dow Jones up 1.5%, S&P 500 up 1.2%, and Nasdaq 100 up 1.0% [8] Top Gainers and Laggards - Top gainers in the Russell 1000 included WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ:WSC) up 11.89% and CAVA Group Inc. (NYSE:CAVA) up 10.57% [9] - Top laggards included Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC) down 12.83% and Veeva Systems Inc. (NYSE:VEEV) down 10.55% [10]

Group 1 - Real estate stocks, particularly homebuilders, experienced an increase alongside the broader market on Friday [3] - A key Federal Reserve official indicated potential for further monetary easing, which significantly raised the likelihood of a rate cut in December [3] - The iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF saw positive movement in response to these developments [3]

Core Insights - The home builders sector experienced mixed results in Q3, with revenues collectively surpassing analysts' expectations by 2.8% while guidance for the next quarter remained in line with forecasts [3] Group 1: Industry Overview - Homebuilders have traditionally leveraged economies of scale for competitive advantages, including better purchasing power and brand recognition [2] - Recent trends indicate a shift towards energy efficiency and conservation as key drivers of innovation in the industry [2] - The sector is highly cyclical, significantly influenced by macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, which affect both new and existing home sales [2] Group 2: Tri Pointe Homes (NYSE:TPH) - Tri Pointe Homes reported Q3 revenues of $854.7 million, reflecting a 25.3% year-on-year decline, yet exceeding analysts' expectations by 15% [5] - The company achieved a strong performance with 1,217 home deliveries at an average sales price of $672,000, generating $817.3 million in home sales revenue for the quarter [6] - Despite the positive earnings report, the stock price has decreased by 3.1% since the announcement, currently trading at $31.85 [7] Group 3: Competitor Performance - Champion Homes (NYSE:SKY) reported Q3 revenues of $684.4 million, an 11% increase year-on-year, outperforming analysts' expectations by 6.9% [9] - The company also demonstrated strong performance with significant beats in both EBITDA and adjusted operating income estimates [9]

Group 1 - Meritage Homes Corp (NYSE:MTH) is identified as a top pick in the homebuilder sector by UBS analyst John Lovallo, who anticipates a positive outlook for the industry in 2026 due to decreasing interest rates [1] - The current market requires rate stabilization, as builders are offering significant incentives that lower average selling prices (ASP) to stimulate demand; a stable rate environment could enhance consumer confidence [2] - ClearBridge Small Cap Strategy has established a significant new position in Meritage Homes, citing a systematic housing shortage in the U.S. and the potential benefits from declining interest rates for homebuilders [3]