Core Insights - High mortgage rates and slow demand have hindered a homebuilder rebound, but early signs of a rally are emerging, potentially aided by a more accommodative Federal Reserve [1] - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported a plateau in builder confidence in August, following 16 months of negative trends, prompting calls for lower interest rates [2] - NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz emphasized that housing affordability is crucial for economic growth and inflation, advocating for a reduction in the federal funds rate to lower financing costs for housing construction [3] Industry Trends - Homebuilders experienced a post-pandemic rally that began to decline ahead of the 2024 presidential election, with the S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index and key companies like DR Horton and Lennar Corp. showing a downward trend for much of the year, although they have rallied since April [4] - Mortgage rates are beginning to decrease, and single-family housing statistics are improving, indicating potential recovery in the housing market [3] Trading Opportunities - Traders optimistic about the homebuilder sector can consider the Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL), which provides 3x exposure to the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index, encompassing various companies in home construction and related sectors [6] - Another option is the Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X Shares (DRN), offering 3x exposure to the Real Estate Select Sector Index, which includes firms involved in real estate management, development, and investment trusts, excluding mortgage REITs [7]

RIP roaring reversal revving the consumer trade back up. And one of your traders says this could be the beginning of a big bullish run. Let's go off the charts with Chris Feron for a closer look at what we call the consumer discretionary.Exactly. And Brian, you know, it really speaks in context with this talk we just had on autos. I mean, these have been neglected corners of the market that are quietly acting really, really well.If you look at discretionary on its own right and equally weighted so not just ...

Core Insights - Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. has been operating in the U.S. housing market for over 65 years, currently active in 13 states [1] Company Overview - Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. is a long-established homebuilder in the United States, with a significant presence across multiple states [1]

Core Insights - Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. reported a total revenue increase of 10.8% year-over-year to $800.6 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, and a 6.7% increase to $2.16 billion for the nine months ended July 31, 2025 [3][23] - The company met or exceeded all guidance metrics provided for the quarter, with 86% of total lots optioned, the highest percentage ever [1][10] - The company achieved the second highest trailing twelve-month return on equity (ROE) among midsized homebuilders at 18.7% [4][10] Financial Performance - Total revenues for the third quarter increased to $800.6 million from $722.7 million in the same quarter last year, while revenues for the first nine months rose to $2.16 billion from $2.03 billion [3][23] - Homebuilding gross margin percentage after cost of sales interest expense and land charges was 11.7% for the third quarter, down from 19.1% in the prior year [3][25] - Net income for the third quarter was $16.6 million, or $1.99 per diluted share, compared to $72.9 million, or $9.75 per diluted share, in the same period last year [3][23] Sales and Contracts - Consolidated contracts in the third quarter increased by 1.6% to 1,211 homes, valued at $619.6 million, compared to 1,192 homes valued at $645.8 million in the same quarter last year [7] - The gross contract cancellation rate for consolidated contracts was 19% for the third quarter, up from 17% in the prior year [7][10] - The dollar value of consolidated contract backlog decreased by 27.6% to $838.8 million compared to $1.16 billion a year ago [7] Liquidity and Inventory - Total liquidity as of July 31, 2025, was $277.9 million, exceeding the target range of $170 million to $245 million [5][10] - The company controlled 40,246 lots as of July 31, 2025, an increase of 1.8% from the previous year, with 86% of these lots optioned [5][10] Guidance and Market Outlook - For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, total revenues are expected to be between $750 million and $850 million, with adjusted homebuilding gross margin projected between 15.0% and 16.5% [6][8] - The company remains focused on pursuing growth opportunities while improving its capital structure, despite challenges in the market environment [10]

Market Expectations & Rate Cuts - Market anticipates potential rate cuts, influencing stock market trends [1] - Rate cut hopes drive market leadership, especially in economically cyclical sectors [2] - Two-year yield at 375%, suggesting a modest easing cycle is probable [8] - Market implies the Fed may implement a 25 basis points cut in September [9] Sector Rotation & Performance - Homebuilders, biotech, and small caps show signs of revival, indicating a rotation from mega-cap stocks [2] - Homebuilders began to show trend changes 3-4 months prior to the report [3] - Global autos, including Toyota and GM, demonstrate resilience despite challenging macro conditions [4] - Small cap industrials and healthcare sectors are performing strongly [7] Economic Outlook & Curve Steepening - A steeper yield curve suggests a positive economic outlook [7] - The economy is considered to be in decent hands [7] - Homebuilding stocks, previously in a bear market with declines of 40-50%, may be recovering [10]

Final trade time. Tim Seymour in my house. The more we beat a joke, the funnier it gets.Therefore, enjoy the long weekend. Altria, Carter Braxenworth, copper, record weekly drop on ever uh buy for a bounce. Bonan, I think that there are some generational demographic changes that are brewing under the surface.I'm staying away from budoa. Fel like a fun Friday show, didn't it. Sure.I'm gonna stick with Homebuilders. Dr. . Ron Dhi.All right. Thank. ...

Market Trend & Outlook - Piper Sandler's technical analysis indicates the market trend is still higher, targeting 6,600 for the year-end objective [4][5] - The market is making new highs despite some negative sentiment and down AI numbers, suggesting a "hated market" [5][6] - The S&P 500 has broken out to all-time new highs, contrasting with previous concerns of a potential breakdown to 2,000 levels [3] Valuation & Market Structure - Valuations matter, but the market has been shrinking with 20%-25% fewer stocks due to share buybacks [7] - The pool of available equity has decreased from 8,000 to about 3,800, while the amount of capital has increased [9] - Historical price-to-earnings ratios may not be as relevant due to the shrinking market [8] Cyclical Stocks & Housing Market - Cyclical stocks, including homebuilders like Horton (better-than-expected results), LAR, BLD, and BLDR, are showing constructive patterns and reversing downtrends [11][12] - Housing numbers are good, suggesting a stronger consumer environment than people are thinking [10][12] Commodity & Industrial Signals - Copper is breaking out to an all-time new high, signaling a healthy economy and a meaningful pickup in the industrials [12][13]

Market Concerns & Risks - The inflation-adjusted PE ratio matches the peak of the dot-com bubble, indicating potential overvaluation [2] - The 10 largest cap companies are more expensive than during the dot-com bubble, suggesting caution in owning these stocks [2] - Historically high spread between 30-year mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields adds uncertainty [7] - Cyclically adjusted PE ratio (Shiller PE ratio) broke records, historically leading to poor S&P returns over 3-5 years [10][11] - S&P 500's momentum may reverse, hurting the largest cap stocks due to index selling [11][12] Investment Opportunities - Small-cap companies (around $10 billion) are attractive due to lack of liquidity and being undervalued [5] - Homebuilder stocks are attractive when sentiment is low due to anticipatory nature of the market [6] - Energy and healthcare sectors may offer better investment opportunities [4] - Companies punished for mistakes (e.g., Target, Merck) may present opportunities [5] Company Specifics - Smeed Capital Management sold Berkshire Hathaway due to premium associated with Buffett's involvement and its large-cap nature [9] - Thermo Fisher's earnings were better than feared, suggesting potential undervaluation in the healthcare space [8]

Core Insights - Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. reported a 3.1% decrease in total revenues for the second quarter of fiscal 2025, totaling $686.5 million, compared to $708.4 million in the same quarter of the previous year [2] - The company achieved a 15% year-over-year increase in consolidated community count and controlled lots [1] - The return on equity (ROE) for the trailing twelve months was 27.0%, marking the second highest among midsized homebuilders [3] Financial Performance - Total revenues for the first half of fiscal 2025 increased by 4.4% to $1.36 billion compared to $1.30 billion in the first half of fiscal 2024 [2] - Domestic unconsolidated joint ventures' home sales revenues rose by 21.4% to $144.5 million in the second quarter, with 207 homes sold [2] - Homebuilding gross margin percentage decreased to 13.8% in the second quarter from 19.5% in the prior year [2][24] Income and Expenses - Income before income taxes for the second quarter was $26.5 million, down from $69.4 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Net income for the second quarter was $19.7 million, or $2.43 per diluted share, compared to $50.8 million, or $6.66 per diluted share, in the prior year [2][21] - Total SG&A expenses were $80.6 million, or 11.7% of total revenues, compared to $79.0 million, or 11.2% of total revenues, in the same quarter of the previous year [2] Contracts and Backlog - Consolidated contracts decreased by 7.5% year-over-year to 1,398 homes in the second quarter [2] - The dollar value of consolidated contract backlog decreased by 12.5% to $988.2 million as of April 30, 2025, compared to $1.13 billion a year earlier [2] - The gross contract cancellation rate for consolidated contracts was 15% in the second quarter, up from 14% in the previous year [3] Liquidity and Capital Management - Total liquidity as of April 30, 2025, was $202.4 million, within the targeted range of $170 million to $245 million [9] - The company redeemed $26.6 million of senior notes due in 2026 and repurchased 126,448 shares of common stock for $12.2 million [9][8] - Land and land development spending was $219.8 million in the second quarter, down from $230.5 million in the same quarter last year [9] Guidance - For the third quarter of fiscal 2025, total revenues are expected to be between $750 million and $850 million, with adjusted homebuilding gross margin projected between 17.0% and 18.0% [6]

Core Insights - Century Communities, Inc. has been recognized as one of the highest-ranked homebuilders on Newsweek's list of America's Most Trustworthy Companies for the third consecutive year [1][2][3] - The company is the only representative in the Real Estate & Housing category and one of only two homebuilders selected this year [2] - Century Communities is among 14 Colorado-based companies recognized out of 700 nationwide [2] Company Overview - Century Communities is a leading homebuilder and an industry pioneer in online home sales, operating in 17 states and over 45 markets across the U.S. [6] - The company aims to build attractive, high-quality homes at affordable prices, encapsulated in their mission of "A Home For Every Dream®" [6] - Century Communities engages in all aspects of homebuilding, including land acquisition, development, construction, and innovative marketing [6] Trust Evaluation - The evaluation for the Newsweek list involved a survey of approximately 25,000 U.S. residents and an extensive social listening analysis of over 304,000 online mentions [3] - Companies involved in significant scandals or lawsuits were excluded from the list, ensuring a focus on trustworthiness [3] Online Homebuying Experience - Century Communities offers an industry-first online homebuying experience, allowing buyers to find and secure their dream home easily [4] - The online process includes filling out a quick form, electronically submitting a deposit, and signing a purchase contract via DocuSign® [8]