There is exactly one person who is responsible for keeping those interest rates high and that's Donald Trump. Jerome Powell said last month that he would have urged the Fed to lower interest rates last February, but for the chaos that Donald Trump has been causing over tariffs and the kind of fallout that that's going to create in the economy. But I also want to see an independent Fed.And when Donald Trump simply tries to persuade, he says, "Here are the arguments in favor. Here's why I think you should do ...

Macroeconomic Critique - Macroeconomics has made little progress in a century, struggling with economic growth, fiscal, and monetary policy determinants [2] - Economists were surprised by the inflation of late 2021 and 2022, and recurring banking crises, due to misinterpreting central bank policies [3] - Economic models often lack banks, leading to failures in understanding banking crises [5] Money Creation and Banking - Most people incorrectly believe the government or central bank creates the majority of money [8] - Banks create most of the money supply through credit creation, not by lending deposits [9][10] - Banks create money by issuing loans, which legally establish an accounts payable liability to customers, represented as customer deposits [11] Banking System Structure and Economic Impact - A banking system dominated by a few mega-banks can lead to asset price inflation and boom-bust cycles [12] - Decentralized banking systems with small local banks lending to small firms can foster growth without inflation and asset bubbles [13] - East Asian economies achieved high growth through decentralized banking systems focused on productive business investment [14] Growth and Sustainability - Economic growth is a statistical fiction, not a physical reality, and is not inherently harmful to the environment [17] - The concept of economic growth is used by bankers to maximize interest charges on national debt [19] Central Bank Policies and Inflation - Quantitative easing (QE) policies have different effects depending on implementation; QE1 cleans up bank balance sheets, while QE2 boosts the economy [20][21] - Implementing QE2 in 2020, when demand was reasonable but supply was restricted, led to inflation [22][23] Policy Recommendations - Advocates for preventing centralized systems like central bank digital currencies, which could lead to less growth and prosperity [24] - Encourages the establishment of many small banks to decentralize the financial system and promote economic growth [24] - Decentralizing the financial system can create job opportunities in rural areas and support government policies to increase fertility [25][26][27]

🇺🇸 FOMC: Tomorrow, the Fed will decide whether to cut, hike, or keep rates unchanged.What’s your prediction? https://t.co/IyONSMUZMN ...

biggest change in our lifetime to financial markets, it's how manipulated they've become. In a weird way, true risk has actually been removed from the market when you evaluate it holistically. Now, could individual stocks go down over time.Absolutely. Of course. But is there a single person in the world that believes the S&P 500 is not going to be higher in a decade.What about in 5 years. What about in 3 years. We've engineered a situation where the government is essentially guaranteeing asset owners, you w ...

Not based on what we've seen so far. He does have the ability, if there's a causal reason, to fire Jay Powell, to fire Jay Powell. But I think what yesterday's visit made clear is he's nowhere close to satisfying that legal standard.The very fact that we saw him try to trump up an inflated cost estimate based on trying to bring in a third building was in many ways a concession by the president that he really didn't have the case that he needed for removal. So I think right now, Powell and the Fed, you feel ...

Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - President Trump pressured the Fed Chair to cut interest rates, an extraordinary scene in the Fed building [3][4] - Markets are repricing expectations to fewer than two rate cuts by the Fed [8] - The Fed is expected to remain independent and will do what it needs to do, regardless of political pressure [9][10] - Inflation forecasts are expected to remain under 2% for the next 18 months [14] Trade & Tariffs - A 15% tariff deal would basically mean trade shuts down [12] - Volkswagen expects around 15% tariff levels from EU talks [75] - Investors believe tariffs between 10% and 20% are manageable for the luxury sector [85] Company Performance & Market Dynamics - Volkswagen cut its outlook for the year due to US tariffs weighing on Audi and Porsche brands [22] - German business confidence rose to 89.6 in July, up from 88.4 [34] - LVMH's luxury product sales slumped in China and Japan, but the market is calling the trough [76][77] Geopolitical Issues - France will recognize Palestinian statehood in September, adding pressure on Israel [41][43] - Negotiations for a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel have broken down [44] Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare - An AI startup received $150 million in financing, bringing total funding to $370 million, to speed up the development of a model that will help physicians with clinical decisions [61] - The AI model aims to cover practically every relevant disease within three years to support physicians in their care delivery [64] - The AI technology analyzes 45 million patients a year, deploying over 2000 hospitals [65]

The risk of a bubble in stock markets is rising as monetary policy loosens alongside an easing in financial regulation, according to Bank of America strategists https://t.co/PY9itrMy40 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for the economy and financial markets, particularly focusing on the upcoming FOMC meeting in July 2025. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Stance**: The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a "wait-and-see" approach during the July meeting, with no changes to the federal funds rate or balance sheet policies [6][8][9]. 2. **Dissenting Opinions**: Governors Waller and Bowman are anticipated to dissent in favor of a 25 basis point reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate, indicating differing views within the committee [6][10]. 3. **Economic Assessment**: The economic activity is described as expanding at a "solid" pace, with a low unemployment rate of 4.1% and inflation remaining "somewhat elevated" [11][15][38]. 4. **Inflation Dynamics**: The recent inflation data suggests tariff-induced pressures, but it is deemed too early for the Fed to alter its inflation assessment significantly [15][21][22]. 5. **Future Rate Cuts**: The forecast indicates no rate cuts in 2025, with the economy expected to be further from the Fed's price stability mandate than from full employment [6][30][31]. 6. **Curve Flattening Risks**: There is an acknowledgment of curve-flattening risks following the FOMC meeting and the Treasury quarterly refunding announcement, suggesting a strategic approach to manage these risks [6][59]. 7. **USD Outlook**: The USD is expected to weaken over time as US yields decline relative to those in the Euro Area, with sensitivity to front-end rate movements [62][66]. 8. **Mortgage Market Focus**: The mortgage market is anticipated to remain focused on future Fed paths and regulatory updates, with current demand being tepid, particularly from banks and overseas investors [80][87]. Additional Important Content 1. **Labor Market Insights**: The labor market is characterized by a two-speed dynamic, with low unemployment coexisting with softer payroll growth, indicating a complex economic environment [16][32]. 2. **Regulatory Environment**: There is ongoing discussion about bank regulation, with expectations for more clarity and potential impacts on bank demand for mortgages [80][81]. 3. **Trade Ideas**: Specific trade ideas are suggested, including maintaining long positions in certain UST and SOFR swap spreads, indicating a proactive investment strategy [61]. 4. **Market Reactions**: The market's reaction to the Fed's communications will depend on the emphasis placed by Chair Powell on inflation risks versus the potential for rate cuts [23][29]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, economic assessments, and market implications.

🇺🇸 FOMC: Next week, the Fed will decide whether to cut, hike, or keep rates unchanged.What’s your prediction? https://t.co/CFocZUSod8 ...

EDGED UP TO 2% IN MAY, AND THE CONTEXT OF A STRONG INCREASE IN DEMAND WHILE CREDIT STANDARDS TIGHTENED SLIGHTLY IN THE SECOND QUARTER. SO IN CONCLUSION, THE GOVERNING COUNCIL TODAY DECIDED TO KEEP THE THREE KEY ECB INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED. WE ARE DETERMINED TO ENSURE THAT INFLATION STABILIZES AT OUR 2% TARGET IN THE MEDIUM TERM. WE WILL FOLLOW A DATA-DEPENDENT AND MEETING BY MEETING APPROACH TO DETERMINING THE APPROPRIATE MONETARY POLICY STANCE. OUR INTEREST RATE DECISIONS WILL BE BASED ON OUR ASSESSMENT O ...