Core Insights - The dollar index has decreased to a one-week low, down by 0.05%, primarily due to falling T-note yields following weaker-than-expected US economic reports, which has raised expectations for a potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The US Q4 employment cost index increased by 0.7% quarter-over-quarter, which is below the expected 0.8% and marks the smallest rise in 4.5 years [2] - US December retail sales remained unchanged month-over-month, falling short of the anticipated 0.4% increase, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [3] Economic Indicators - The swaps market is pricing in a 22% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 17-18, with expectations of a total interest rate cut of about 50 basis points by 2026 [4] - The euro has slightly decreased by 0.09% following a dovish statement from the European Central Bank, which suggested that lower interest rates could alleviate inflation and growth pressures caused by higher US tariffs [5] - The yen has appreciated by 0.97% against the dollar, reaching a one-week high, driven by positive signals from the Japanese economy, particularly a significant rise in machine tool orders [6]

Economic Outlook - The anticipated economic growth target of 15% may be overly optimistic, reflecting potential pressure on the next Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, as the midterm elections approach [2][3] - A recent Pew Research poll indicates that 70% of Americans view the economy negatively, with many describing it as fair or poor [3] Government Policy and Strategy - The White House is relying on monetary policy under a potential Fed chair Warsh to stimulate economic growth [3] - Key policy proposals include expectations for larger tax refunds this season and a continued focus on onshoring manufacturing [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran indicated that the dollar needs to decline more significantly than it has to impact inflation, and he does not see the current weakness of the dollar as having substantial effects on monetary policy so far [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The current weakness of the dollar is not perceived to have material consequences on monetary policy [1] - A steeper decline in the dollar is necessary to influence inflation rates [1]

Company Developments - Kroger Co. is set to appoint Greg Foran, a former Walmart executive, as its new CEO, following a year-long search for leadership. This move aims to enhance Kroger's strategy in a competitive retail environment, particularly focusing on fresh food and store efficiency. Kroger shares rose nearly 3% in premarket trading after the news [3][7] - Eli Lilly's shares increased by 2.2% in premarket trading after Hims & Hers Health Inc. withdrew its weight-loss pill, reducing competition in the weight-loss drug market. This withdrawal follows a terminated partnership with Novo Nordisk due to concerns over marketing practices, potentially benefiting Eli Lilly's weight-loss treatments like Zepbound [4][7] Market Sentiment - The Eurozone's investor sentiment improved significantly, with the Sentix Investor Confidence index rising to 4.2 in February, surpassing the estimated 0.0 and increasing from -1.8 the previous month. This indicates growing optimism among investors regarding the Eurozone's economic outlook [5][7] Political and Economic Context - The British Pound and UK Gilts are under pressure due to a leadership crisis involving Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which has increased political risk premiums in the currency and bond markets. The resignation of Starmer's adviser amid controversy has heightened uncertainty, potentially affecting public debt sustainability [6][8] - Fitch Ratings upgraded China Vanke's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating to 'CC', indicating a very high level of default risk. Despite the upgrade, the company faces significant financial challenges, including a profit warning projecting a net loss for 2025 [9]

Washington, D.C., Feb. 07, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- As preparations continue for America’s 250th anniversary, a recent video presentation by former CIA, Pentagon, and White House advisor Jim Rickards draws attention to a little-known federal statute and a series of policy actions that could influence the country’s economic framework in 2026. The presentation outlines how executive authority, industrial planning, and changes in monetary leadership may converge during a pivotal national milestone. Rickards’ a ...

Market Overview - The crypto market is currently experiencing significant turmoil, with Bitcoin down nearly 47% from its October peak, trading around $66,900, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index at a score of 9, indicating "Extreme Fear" [1] Federal Reserve Influence - Analysts at Stifel attribute Bitcoin's current weakness to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, suggesting that a "hawkish cut" in December indicates a more cautious, data-dependent monetary policy approach [2][3] - The Fed has maintained steady interest rates in 2026, raising concerns about tightening liquidity, with FOMC members rejecting the notion of an "inflationary boom" amid trade tensions and tariff uncertainties [4] Historical Context - The rhetoric from Stifel analysts parallels Chair Jerome Powell's 2022 speech, which warned of impending pain as policymakers aimed to control inflation, with market reactions following the nomination of Kevin Warsh, an inflation hawk, as a signal for sustained higher rates [5] Structural Changes in Bitcoin's Performance - Stifel highlights a structural shift where Bitcoin has not benefited from a weaker dollar over the past year, diverging from its historical performance patterns, attributed to the impacts of Trump's trade war and changing inflation expectations [6] - Despite an expansion in global dollar liquidity, Bitcoin has not responded positively, undermining its status as a hedge against fiat debasement [7] Divergence from Equities - Bitcoin's decline occurs while the Nasdaq 100 Index remains near record highs, creating a widening gap between digital assets and equities, which Stifel describes as "ominous," suggesting potential turbulence for tech investors ahead [8]

Market Overview - Domestic equity markets experienced subdued trading before a late recovery, driven by selective buying in FMCG and private banking stocks [9] - The BSE Sensex closed at 83,580.40, up by 266.47 points or 0.32%, while the NSE Nifty ended at 25,693.70, gaining 50.90 points or 0.20% [3][4] Central Bank Policy - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained its benchmark interest rate at 5.25%, as inflation remained manageable and growth concerns eased due to increased government spending and reduced tariff pressures [4][7] - The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep the repo rate unchanged, signaling a neutral policy stance for the foreseeable future [7] Sector Performance - ITC was the top gainer among Sensex firms, rising by 5.09%, with other notable gainers including Kotak Mahindra Bank, Hindustan Unilever, and Bajaj Finance [5][6] - In contrast, major laggards included Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra, and Adani Ports [8] Real Estate Financing - The RBI proposed allowing banks to lend to Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) with certain prudential safeguards to enhance financing for the real estate sector [3][11] - This regulatory clarity is expected to improve long-term funding visibility for the real estate and credit ecosystem [11] Foreign Investment - Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth ₹2,150.51 crore on Thursday, indicating a potential shift in investment sentiment [10]

European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras discusses the outlook for the euro, inflation and monetary policy. He speaks on Bloomberg Television after Thursday's decision by the ECB to keep rates unchanged at 2%. ...

Despite earlier policy easing, several domestic and international challenges are limiting the scope for fresh rate cuts.Why RBI may keep rates unchangedThe SBI report said government bond yields have remained firm even after earlier rate cuts, showing that monetary policy measures have not fully transmitted to the market.It added that the impact of Open Market Operations (OMOs) may depend on the type of securities selected, which could reduce the effectiveness of liquidity support. Because of this, the RBI ...

Bitcoin has already tumbled far from its all-time high of $126,000 in October, but history suggests the rout could deepen before momentum shifts, according to analysts at Stifel. In a note, analysts at the 136-year-old financial services firm predicted that Bitcoin could fall as low as $38,000 in the coming months. With Bitcoin recently changing hands at $65,433, per CoinGecko, that would represent a 42% decrease from Thursday’s prices. The analysts cited the extent to which Bitcoin has fallen from its all ...