POLICY🏛️: U.S. Regulators Speak on Crypto Custody, But No New Policy, Just a Statement 🇺🇸Report by @jesseahamilton ...

Every investor loves to say, "I don't care about politics. I just follow the numbers." That's a fantasy. Politics moves markets. If you're not paying attention to what's happening in Washington, Brussels, or Beijing, you're driving with your eyes closed.But here's the trap. Obsessing over every headline, every poll, and every political hottake will ruin you. Traders who jump at every new development get chopped up.Whips by sentiment instead of capturing the real opportunity. Savvy investors do it differentl ...

Trump imposes tougher US policy towards Cuba https://t.co/DNTdtLZYsJ ...

Market Overview & Strategy - JP Morgan's mid-year check suggests a less bullish outlook than the market's rapid recovery might imply [1][4] - The firm believes it's difficult to have a wholesale bullish overweight view across the board in the US, but opportunities exist in specific asset classes [5] - JP Morgan suggests focusing on asset classes that haven't rallied as much or where performance hasn't translated into flows and positioning [5] Policy & Economic Factors - Policy has transitioned from an acute to a chronic issue for markets, influencing specific stock or asset class performance rather than driving daily headlines [3][6] - Recession risk has decreased since early April, with a macro environment conducive to high single-digit earnings growth [4] - The market has largely priced in the current trade environment, with average tariff rates at 15%, five times higher than before the trade issue began [11] Investment Opportunities - JP Morgan maintains interest in international performance, particularly in Asia (Japan, India), despite Europe's recent dominance [6] - Financials in the US present an opportunity due to the potential for a steepening yield curve and business-friendly regulation [6][8] - Lowering the supplementary leverage ratio for financials could free up lending and decrease the burden of holding treasuries [9] Risk Assessment - A significant escalation of the trade war, deviating from the base case, could raise recession risk and necessitate repricing [10] - While policy issues are viewed as chronic, there's a possibility that positive policy tailwinds are being underestimated [7]