🔥 LATEST: The Fed just called time on 3.5 years of Quantitative Tightening while quietly adding $13.5B to the banking system through overnight repos. https://t.co/jG9NctR0jt ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin has rebounded from a dip to $84,000, currently trading close to $87,000, attracting attention from both large investors and smaller traders seeking high returns [1] - The recent recovery follows a challenging November where Bitcoin lost over $18,000, coinciding with record monthly ETF redemptions of $3.47 billion [2] - On-chain activity indicates large holders are accumulating Bitcoin, with technical data showing strong support around $86,000, suggesting a potential run towards $100,000 if December inflows return [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Vanguard's policy change allowing clients to trade crypto ETFs and mutual funds starting December 2 could introduce new capital into Bitcoin ETFs, which currently hold $113 billion, potentially stabilizing prices [4] - ETF activity is crucial, with spot Bitcoin funds experiencing significant withdrawals in November but showing signs of leveling off [5] - BlackRock's IBIT, the largest Bitcoin ETF with $70 billion in assets, has increased internal allocations, contributing to the recent price rebound [5] Group 2: Economic Environment - The Federal Reserve's decision to pause quantitative tightening and halt the $2.2 trillion reduction in balance-sheet assets eases liquidity constraints, benefiting assets like Bitcoin [5] - Coinbase's Q4 index update and Franklin Templeton's expansion of its Crypto Index ETF to include major cryptocurrencies widen exposure for investors [6] - The combination of Bitcoin's rebound, Vanguard's policy shift, and the Fed's liquidity changes creates a favorable market environment, potentially leading to significant progress in December [7]

Core Viewpoint - The US Federal Reserve has officially ended its quantitative tightening (QT) program, signaling a potential shift towards liquidity expansion that may catalyze a new rally in the crypto market [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The US Federal Reserve injected $13.5 billion into the banking system through overnight repurchase agreements, marking the second-largest single-day liquidity operation since the COVID-19 crisis [2]. - The cessation of QT comes after the Fed withdrew approximately $2.4 trillion from the financial system since the tightening cycle began in June 2022 [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Market experts, including Fundstrat's Tom Lee, believe that the end of QT could be a turning point for the crypto market, with historical data suggesting a potential 17% rally in markets within three weeks following the last QT cessation [4]. - Improved liquidity is expected to support stronger performance in risk assets, particularly Bitcoin, with projections indicating a possible new all-time high by late January [4]. Group 3: Global Monetary Policy Considerations - Attention is also focused on the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December, where rate cuts are anticipated [5]. - Concurrently, the probability of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike has risen to 81%, which has historically led to selloffs in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market [6].

Core Viewpoint - Fundstrat Global Advisors' Managing Partner and CIO Tom Lee maintains a bullish outlook for the S&P 500, predicting it could reach between 7,200 and 7,300 by year-end despite early December volatility [1][5]. Market Conditions - Lee attributes his positive forecast to favorable Federal Reserve policies and historical seasonal trends, marking the end of quantitative tightening (QT) as a pivotal moment for market liquidity [2][3]. - The conclusion of QT, which has been a headwind since April 2022, is expected to shift the monetary backdrop from tightening to easing, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated [3]. Economic Outlook - Lee suggests that the weakening inflation narrative allows the Fed to cut rates to support a resilient labor market, despite recent data challenges [4]. - The November market reset, which saw a reduction in leverage from high-risk trades, is viewed as a healthy foundation for a year-end market surge [4]. Investor Behavior - Lee predicts that investors who were overly cautious will engage in "performance chasing" as seasonal tailwinds emerge, potentially driving the S&P 500 up by an additional 5% to 10% [5]. Cryptocurrency Market - While optimistic about equities, Lee has adjusted his timeline for cryptocurrency, expecting Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs by the end of January rather than December, following a broader recovery in risk assets [6]. Recent Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices experienced declines at the start of December, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust down 0.46% and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF down 0.34% [7].

🇺🇸 The Federal Reserve officially ends Quantitative Tightening (QT) .This means the Fed stops draining liquidity from the market — a historically bullish signal for risk assets like crypto. 📈🟢More liquidity → more volatility ahead. ✨Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru):JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve officially ends quantitative tightening. https://t.co/tknVKlbKIF ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve officially ends quantitative tightening. https://t.co/tknVKlbKIF ...

Market Sentiment - The technology sector continues to attract investment despite concerns about high valuations, with many investors still optimistic about tech's potential for growth [1][2] - There is speculation about an AI bubble, but current spending in AI is primarily driven by revenue-generating companies, indicating a more sustainable growth trajectory compared to the 2000 tech bubble [3][4] Earnings and Market Performance - Recent earnings reports exceeded expectations, with a year-over-year growth of approximately 14-15%, surpassing the anticipated 7% [7] - Market volatility has been influenced by shifting Federal Reserve expectations regarding interest rate cuts, with a significant increase in the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut [8][9] Consumer Behavior - Consumer confidence is declining, which raises concerns about maintaining year-over-year growth in consumer spending during the holiday season [10][21] - Black Friday sales showed a 6% increase globally, driven by higher average selling prices rather than increased order volume, indicating a cautious consumer approach [19][22] Investment Strategies - The current investment environment is challenging, with a focus on diversification and tax management strategies to protect gains from previous years [17] - Infrastructure credit investments are being favored over infrastructure equity to mitigate risk in the current market [16]

Core Insights - Mortgage rates have shown a gradual decline, providing some relief to homebuyers and homeowners after a prolonged period of high borrowing costs, with the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgage falling to 6.144% [1][11] - Despite recent decreases, current mortgage rates remain significantly higher than the ultra-low rates experienced earlier in the decade, which were around 2.65% in early 2021 [3][11] - The Federal Reserve's actions, including recent rate cuts, have influenced mortgage rates, but broader economic conditions suggest that rates in the 2% to 3% range are unlikely to return [6][12] Mortgage Rate Trends - The average interest rates for various mortgage types have seen small but broad declines, including a drop in the 30-year conventional mortgage from 6.244% to 6.144% over the past week [4][11] - Other mortgage types also experienced declines, such as the 30-year FHA rate decreasing from 6.102% to 5.990% and the 30-year VA rate falling from 5.853% to 5.764% [4] Economic Influences - The current lending environment is characterized by typical economic conditions, with inflation uncertainty impacting mortgage rates [6][12] - Factors such as federal deficits and demand for loans also play a significant role in influencing mortgage rates, where weak demand may lead to lower rates and strong demand may allow lenders to charge more [8][12] - The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening campaign, which has been ongoing since 2022, is set to officially end on December 1, 2025, potentially affecting future mortgage rates [9][12]

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and the end of quantitative tightening. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in. So, Bitcoin right now is coming in at around $87,000.Now, a lot of people are perplexed, right. They're like, "Well, quantitative tightening is coming to ...

Market Trends - Bitcoin ETFs turned positive after a $435 billion outflow in November [1] - Quantitative tightening ends on Monday, December 1st, marking the end of the Federal Reserve's two-year liquidity drain from markets [1] - The market anticipates a Federal Reserve policy pivot from restrictive to accommodative, with Bitcoin potentially reaching $90,000 [1] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to halt liquidity draining from markets after two years [1] - Market anticipates an 87% probability of a rate cut following Powell's speech on the same day [1] Company Performance - BlackRock's revenue from Bitcoin now exceeds that of any other product [1] - Coinbase premium is positive after a month of negative performance [1]