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Market anticipation of 3 to 4 rate cuts in 2026 may be too optimistic, says Baird's Mayfield
Youtube· 2025-10-29 18:17
With the market already pricing in a quarter percentage point cut, my next guests are now focusing on the potential end of quantitative tightening. So joining us now are Michael Schumacher, head of macro strategy over at Wells Fargo, and Ross Mayfield, investment strategist over at Baird. Thank you gentlemen both for being here.Michael, we're going to start with you. This is probably one of the more telegraphed rate moves that the Fed has seen and the markets are playing it that way as well. What exactly do ...
Market anticipation of 3 to 4 rate cuts in 2026 may be too optimistic, says Baird's Mayfield
CNBC Television· 2025-10-29 18:17
With the market already pricing in a quarter percentage point cut, my next guests are now focusing on the potential end of quantitative tightening. So joining us now are Michael Schumacher, head of macro strategy over at Wells Fargo, and Ross Mayfield, investment strategist over at Baird. Thank you gentlemen both for being here.Michael, we're going to start with you. This is probably one of the more telegraphed rate moves that the Fed has seen and the markets are playing it that way as well. What exactly do ...
Read the October FOMC Statement
Barrons· 2025-10-29 18:03
Economic Activity - Economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace, with job gains slowing and the unemployment rate remaining low through August [1][2] - Recent indicators are consistent with the developments in economic activity and inflation has increased since earlier in the year, remaining somewhat elevated [1] Federal Reserve's Goals - The Federal Reserve aims to achieve maximum employment and maintain inflation at a rate of 2 percent over the long run [2] - There is elevated uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, with downside risks to employment having risen in recent months [2] Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.75% to 4% [3] - The Committee will carefully assess incoming data and the evolving outlook when considering further adjustments to the target range [3] Quantitative Tightening - The Federal Reserve plans to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1 [3] - The Committee remains strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective [3]
X @TylerD 🧙‍♂️
TylerD 🧙‍♂️· 2025-10-29 18:02
25 bps cut + end of QT in sightNow we wait for Powell's speechzerohedge (@zerohedge):FED CUTS 25BPSFED SAYS IT WILL STOP SHRINKING BALANCE SHEET ON DEC. 1FED SAYS MIRAN DISSENTED IN FAVOR OF HALF-POINT CUT ...
X @Joe Consorti ⚡️
Joe Consorti ⚡️· 2025-10-29 17:27
The end of QT matters more for bitcoin than today's rate cut at this stage in the cycle.If we get anything other than a dovish Fed announcing the end of QT with further support on standby, bitcoin is likely to have a visceral reaction. ...
Why the Fed May Stop Shrinking Its Balance Sheet Sooner Than Expected
Barrons· 2025-10-29 15:31
7 hours ago Fed Meeting Today: Interest Rates, Quantitative Tightening, Powell Speech, and More Why the Fed May Stop Shrinking Its Balance Sheet Sooner Than Expected Last Updated: CONCLUDED Earlier this month, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted that the Fed could soon end its quantitative tightening program, the process of steadily shrinking its balance sheet. Now, some analysts think it could stop as soon as today. By Nicole Goodkind The balance sheet is central to how the Fed controls monetary pol ...
Fed Delivers Expected Rate Cut While Signaling End to Balance Sheet Reduction
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-29 15:11
US MBA mortgage applications rose +7.1% in the week ended October 24, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +4.5% and the refinancing sub-index up +9.3%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -7 bp to a 13-month low of 6.30% from 6.37% in the prior week.Strength in semiconductor stocks is also supportive for the broader market today, led by a +4% jump in Nvidia, after President Trump said he was open to providing China with access to Nvidia’s Blackwell AI processor as part of a trade deal. Chinese ...
X @Ash Crypto
Ash Crypto· 2025-10-29 13:20
Market Expectations - The market anticipates significant interest rate reductions [1] - The market expects the Federal Reserve to cease Quantitative Tightening (QT) [1] - The market hopes for a US-China trade agreement [1] - The market predicts Bitcoin (BTC) and alternative cryptocurrencies (alts) to reach new All-Time Highs (ATH) [1]
Is This The Best Small-Cap ETF To Buy? Analyst Weighs In
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-29 12:02
We recently published Top 10 Trending Stocks and ETFs as Analyst Predicts $9 Trillion Productivity Gains Due to AI. iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA:IJR) is one of the top trending stocks. Bill Baruch, founder and President of both Blue Line Capital and Blue Line Futures, said in a recent program on CNBC that he was investing in IJR. Here is why: “So the SPY and the iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA:IJR) they sold off pretty sharply on Friday. I was really surprised to not see any follow-t ...
The Future Of Rates And Quantitative Tightening
Seeking Alpha· 2025-10-29 11:14
Group 1 - SNAP will suspend federal food aid from November 1 due to the government shutdown, affecting millions of Americans [3] - Kenvue has appointed a new chief marketing officer amid legal challenges regarding Tylenol marketing related to autism risk [3] - Melissa, a Category 5 hurricane, made landfall in Jamaica and may impact the hotel sector [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce its key rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% during the upcoming meeting [5] - Policymakers are entering the meeting without key economic data due to the government shutdown, including nonfarm payrolls and the core PCE index [6] - Wall Street strategists anticipate the Fed may signal an end to balance sheet reduction by year-end as reserves approach "ample" levels [7] Group 3 - Seeking Alpha sentiment shows mixed expectations among subscribers regarding the number of Fed cuts before year-end, with 50% forecasting one cut and 44% expecting two more in 2025 [8] - Cameco and Brookfield are partnering with the U.S. for an $80 billion nuclear initiative [9] - Microsoft and OpenAI's collaboration is expected to accelerate AI advancements [9]