RT Breakout (@breakoutprop)The small account trap:You want to trade BTC. The setup is there.But 1% risk on a $2,000 account is $20.Even if you're right, the win doesn't move the needle.So you do one of two things:1. Trade shitcoins because that's the only way the math works2. Overleverage BTC and hope it doesn't stop you outNeither is a real strategy. Both are symptoms of not having enough capital.With a $50k funded account, 1% risk is $500.You can trade majors with proper sizing and let winners develop.The ...

Follow the trendAnd BULLMANIA will come into your lifeDarius Dale (@DariusDale42):I hope this latest 40% plunge in Bitcoin teaches you that "HODL'ing" is merely a marketing tool used by everyone who bought a lot of Bitcoin before you and not an effective risk management strategy.We'll be here when you're ready to take your financial future seriously: https://t.co/wcAC8XyOM2 ...

Core Insights - Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. (BMNR) has experienced a significant decline of 43% since the last coverage, attributed to weakness in the broader cryptocurrency market, particularly with Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC) also showing downward trends [1]. Company Performance - The company's stock performance is closely tied to the overall cryptocurrency market dynamics, indicating a high correlation with major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Bitcoin [1]. Investment Strategy - The investment approach focuses on identifying high-potential opportunities with an asymmetric risk-reward profile, aiming for a minimum upside potential of 3-5 times the downside risk [1]. - Emphasis is placed on leveraging market inefficiencies and contrarian insights to maximize long-term compounding while safeguarding against capital impairment [1]. - A 2-3 year investment horizon is adopted to endure market volatility, highlighting the importance of patience, discipline, and intelligent capital allocation for achieving superior returns over time [1].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - CME Group achieved record revenues of $6.5 billion in 2025, a 6% increase compared to 2024, with annual revenue records in five out of six asset classes [11] - Adjusted net income for 2025 was $4.1 billion, resulting in a 9% growth in adjusted earnings per share [11] - Average daily volume increased by 6% to 2,128.1 million contracts, marking the fifth consecutive year of record volume [5][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Market data revenue surpassed $800 million for the first time, up 13% from 2024 [11] - Average daily margin savings for customers reached $80 billion, an increase of approximately $20 billion over the past year [6] - Retail-focused products saw significant growth, with microproducts up 59% in Q4 to a record 4.4 million contracts per day [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International business averaged 8.4 million contracts per day, up 8% from the previous record set in 2024 [5] - Average daily volume in cryptocurrency trading reached 379,000, up 92% in Q4, representing over $13 billion in notional value traded per day [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - CME Group is focused on expanding its customer base through innovative products, including event contracts and 24/7 trading for cryptocurrency [8][10] - The company received approval for CME Securities Clearing, set to launch later this year, enhancing capital efficiencies for clients [7] - CME Group aims to continuously evolve its product offerings, requiring strategic investments for growth [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the health of the customer base, noting growth in both retail and institutional segments [18][19] - The company remains focused on providing premier risk management tools to navigate a complex macro landscape [10] - Management is encouraged by strong activity in early 2026, indicating a solid foundation for continued growth [101] Other Important Information - CME Group repurchased $256 million in shares during Q4 and an additional $276 million in 2026 [12] - The board approved the use of OSTTRA proceeds for share repurchases over time [12] - The company plans to evaluate transaction fees regularly, moving away from annual consolidated changes [13][39] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Health of customer base amid volatility - Management indicated that the customer base is healthy, with open positions around 125 million and significant growth in silver contracts despite margin changes [18][19] Question: Engagement with prediction markets - Management noted increased interest from new individual participants and institutional market makers in prediction markets since the launch [25][26] Question: Pricing changes and transparency - Management explained that pricing changes will be made based on business performance rather than a fixed schedule, allowing for more flexibility [44] Question: Progress on Google Cloud migration - The migration is on track, with $29 million spent in Q4 and around $100 million for the year related to cloud expenses [76][77] Question: Tokenized collateral and its implications - Management is exploring tokenized cash initiatives and will assess the risk associated with accepting different types of tokens for margin [82] Question: Cross-margining programs and collateral balances - CME Group's cross-margining program is operationally ready, with significant savings generated for participating firms, and the company anticipates further growth in collateral balances with new offerings [89][94]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - CME Group achieved record revenue of $6.5 billion in 2025, a 6% increase compared to 2024, with annual revenue records in five out of six asset classes [10] - Adjusted net income for 2025 was $4.1 billion, resulting in a 9% growth in adjusted earnings per share [10] - In Q4 2025, revenue reached $1.65 billion, an 8% increase from Q4 2024 [10][11] - Average daily volume increased 6% to 2,128.1 million contracts, marking the fifth consecutive year of record volume [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Market data revenue surpassed $800 million for the first time, up 13% from 2024 [10] - Average daily margin savings for customers reached $80 billion, an increase of approximately $20 billion over the past year [5] - Microproducts saw a 59% increase in Q4 to a record 4.4 million contracts per day [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International business averaged 8.4 million contracts per day, up 8% from the previous record set in 2024 [4] - Cryptocurrency trading volume in Q4 averaged 379,000 contracts, up 92%, representing over $13 billion in notional value traded per day [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - CME Group is focused on expanding its customer base through innovative products, including event contracts and 24/7 trading for cryptocurrencies [6][9] - The company received approval for CME Securities Clearing, set to launch in 2026, enhancing capital efficiencies for clients [5] - CME Group aims to continuously evolve its product offerings, requiring strategic investments for growth [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the health of the customer base, noting growth in both retail and institutional segments [18] - The macro landscape is becoming increasingly complex, but CME Group remains focused on providing premier risk management tools [9] - Strong activity in January 2026 indicates continued momentum from the record-setting year [9] Other Important Information - CME Group repurchased $256 million in shares during Q4 and an additional $276 million in 2026 [11] - The company paid dividends of approximately $3.9 billion in 2025 [12] - Transaction fee changes are expected to increase total revenue by approximately 1%-1.5% on similar activity to 2025 [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Health of customer base amid volatility - Management indicated that the customer base is healthy, with open positions around 125 million and strong performance in silver despite margin changes [17][18] Question: Engagement with prediction markets - CME Group has seen new individual participants and institutional market makers interested in prediction markets since the launch [25][26] Question: Pricing changes and transparency - Management stated that pricing changes will be made based on business performance rather than a fixed schedule, allowing for flexibility [44] Question: Google Cloud migration progress - Migration is on track, with $29 million spent in Q4 and approximately $100 million for the year related to Google Cloud [78] Question: Tokenized collateral and its implications - CME Group is exploring tokenized cash initiatives and will assess the risk associated with different types of tokens before acceptance [84][85] Question: Cross-margining programs and collateral balances - CME Group's cross-margining program is operationally ready, with significant savings generated for participating firms [90][96]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2025, the company reported adjusted operating income of $688 million or $4.61 per diluted share, with a year-end adjusted book value per share increasing by 11% to $37.87 [4][12] - In Q4 2025, adjusted operating income was $179 million or $1.23 per diluted share, compared to $1.09 per diluted share in the same period last year [12][14] - Adjusted return on equity for Q4 was 13.5% [7][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - New insurance written in Q4 was $14 billion, up 2% sequentially and 8% year-over-year [13] - The primary insurance in force reached $273 billion in Q4, up $1 billion from Q3 2025 and $4 billion year-over-year [14] - Operating expenses for Q4 were $59 million, with an expense ratio of 24%, compared to $53 million and 22% in Q3 2025 [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Persistency was 80% in Q4, down 3 points sequentially and 2 points year-over-year [13] - The risk-weighted average FICO score of the insurance in-force portfolio was 746, with a risk-weighted average loan-to-value ratio of 93% [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on disciplined capital allocation, supporting existing policyholders, and investing in business growth while returning excess capital to shareholders [9][10] - The company plans to return approximately $500 million to shareholders in 2026, supported by a strong capital position and effective risk management [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating the uncertain macro environment and highlighted strong long-term housing demand driven by demographic trends [23] - The company remains engaged with policymakers regarding housing affordability and supply constraints, indicating a proactive approach to evolving regulatory environments [31][32] Other Important Information - The company received multiple credit ratings upgrades and industry awards, reflecting its commitment to excellence and employee experience [6][7] - The PMIER sufficiency ratio was 162%, providing significant financial flexibility [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capital return guidance for 2026 - Management is confident in delivering $500 million back to shareholders but will evaluate market dynamics and business performance throughout the year [25][26] Question: Regulatory environment concerns - Management is actively engaged with policymakers on various topics, including affordability and inventory challenges, and is monitoring potential regulatory changes [30][32] Question: Mortgage market expectations for 2026 - The company anticipates a 10%-15% increase in mortgage insurance market size based on external forecasts, with a focus on purchase originations [33][34] Question: Default rates and delinquency trends - Management expects new delinquencies to moderate, with current levels in line with expectations and historical patterns [36][38] Question: Performance of new book years - Recent book years are performing in line with pricing expectations, with no significant negative variations noted [42][44] Question: Areas of heightened risk - Management is monitoring housing markets with increased supply and declining prices, particularly in certain states, to manage risk effectively [46][47]

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Some of the stuff that's kind of resonated with what Joanna is saying has been with investors in ETFs who are trying to figure out ways to enhance that yield. Have you seen any signs of stress in in your mind with regard to maybe possibilities for concern down the line because of deteriorating credit quality. Is is the economy flashing some signs that maybe things are slowing down a little bit.How exactly does the macro picture shape up given what we are seeing in terms of a tilt towards income strategies. ...

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CZ on Survival Rules: Surviving longer is more important than growing biggerOn January 31st, during an English AMA on Binance Square, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao shared his views on risk management and responsibility. He noted that no technology can guarantee zero failures forever, and if one’s bets rely on systems running flawlessly at all times, then "the risk is too great."Regarding trading psychology, CZ emphasized taking responsibility for one's actions: "You pressed the buy button, you pressed the ...