🎙️ Alice Liu (@AliceCrypto3), Head of Research at @CoinMarketCap, previews Jerome Powell’s speech today in our upcoming Markets Outlook interview:“All eyes are on Powell’s first public appearance since the September rate cuts. With weaker job data and a looming government shutdown, markets are watching closely for hints of another cut.”Thanks @Stablecoin 🤙 for being a sponsor of CoinDesk media network. ...

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 FED’S Bowman signals the possibility of two more rate cuts this year. https://t.co/rTt9X1MqZW ...

Monetary Policy - Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at 12:20 P.M ET [1] - The market is anticipating whether Powell will mention potential rate cuts [1]

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson signaled support for two more 0.25% rate cuts this year, citing tariff-driven price effects https://t.co/sg1LcfperA ...

Economic Outlook - The economy is experiencing a K-shaped recovery, with a booming industrial renaissance contrasted by headwinds facing consumers [2] - Recent China news poses a slight headwind to the consumer outlook due to potential upward pressure on prices [5] - Strong growth is observed in red book same store retail sales, restaurant visits, and hotel demand, suggesting the economy is still performing well [10] - A key question for the Fed is whether the slowdown in the labor market is due to slower supply (less immigration) or lower demand [8][9] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The biggest underappreciated risk is that the fight against inflation is not over [15] - There's a risk that the Fed cutting rates due to slowing immigration could lead to more inflation, especially with tariffs and a weaker dollar [11] - The consensus view is that inflation over the next 12 months will be 3%, significantly higher than the Fed's 2% target [14] - Retailers are discussing the impact of tariffs on their costs and pricing strategies [13] Gold Market - Gold prices are rising due to inflation risks, Chinese household buying, and central banks divesting from US treasuries [18][19] - Chinese households are diversifying into gold due to limited investment options [21] - Central banks are price insensitive buyers of gold due to sanctions [20]

Market Analysis & Investment Opportunities - Cryptocurrency market experienced a significant liquidation event, with $200 million liquidated in 15 minutes, attributed to factors including global trade war concerns [1] - Despite market volatility, the overall market structure is perceived as bullish, presenting potential buying opportunities similar to previous cycles [2][3] - The analysis suggests a major buying opportunity for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, with confidence expressed in quality cryptocurrencies [3][4] - Traditional banking institutions like Morgan Stanley and BNY Melon are increasingly integrating cryptocurrency, indicating a positive trend for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana [10] Macroeconomic Factors & Regulatory Landscape - Potential Federal Reserve rate cuts are anticipated, influenced by government shutdowns and restrictive policies, with expectations of rate cuts in the near term and potentially two more in 2026 [5][6][7] - Market structure clarity act is progressing, aiming to establish clear crypto rules and resolve ambiguities regarding the classification of crypto assets [15][16][17] Bitcoin's Role & Societal Impact - Bitcoin is recognized as a tool for bypassing government-imposed exchange rates and aiding individuals in countries with collapsing economies or authoritarian regimes [11][12][13][14] - Bitcoin is envisioned as a component of national reserves, contributing to rebuilding economies and providing financial freedom [12]

US-China Trade Relations & Tariffs - The market reacted sharply to President Trump's threat of massive new tariffs on China, with the S&P 500 down approximately 2% and the tech sector experiencing a more significant decline [4] - The expert suggests that the tariff issue is not solvable by monetary policy and recommends the Fed to ignore it [5] - China's cut in access to rare earths is viewed as a reason for potential retaliation from the US [4] Monetary Policy & Inflation - The expert believes that the Fed should hold steady and not continue rate cuts, as cutting rates would validate passing on price increases and potentially fuel inflation [8][9] - The expert suggests that the Fed signaling it does not want to validate price increases would put a lid on inflation [8] Labor Market Analysis - The labor market is described as soft but not significantly different from what is expected in an extended expansion [10] - Wages for lower-end workers are performing well, while supervisory workers have experienced lower pay increases [10][11] - The Atlanta Fed wage tracker signals no serious problems in the labor market [11] Personal Considerations - The individual withdrew his name from consideration for a government position due to personal considerations, including family involvement and satisfaction with his current job [1][2][3] - The expert finds government service to be more painful and hostile than in the past [2]

Monetary Policy Stance - The speaker believes that cutting rates is still necessary, but caution is warranted due to conflicting signals from the labor market and GDP growth [1] - The market has already priced in sequential rate cuts through the end of the year, which the speaker considers cautious enough if implemented in quarter-point increments [3] - A more aggressive rate cut, such as 75 basis points, carries a higher risk if the economic outlook is misjudged [4] - Gradual adjustments of 25 basis points allow for flexibility as new data becomes available [4] Economic Indicators - The labor market is weak, but GDP growth is strong, with forecasts near 4% [1] - Negative job growth is inconsistent with 4% GDP growth, suggesting an imbalance that needs to be resolved [1] - The labor market and GDP growth must align, either through a labor market rebound or a GDP growth slowdown [2] Policy Implications - If the labor market rebounds and growth remains strong, there is less need for rate cuts [2] - If GDP growth slows down, the labor market situation necessitates further rate cuts [2] - Policy decisions should be made cautiously to avoid significant errors in either direction [3]

🇺🇸 TODAY: Fed Chair Powell speaks at 8:30 AM ET at the Community Bank Conference.Will he mention rate cuts? https://t.co/SAburEeSdp ...

Well, with us now is Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager at Niles Investment Management. Dan, it's great to have you on the show. Welcome.Thank you. We'll start right there. What do you think of this.Well, you have to separate it into pieces. So, if you're asking, what do I think about the stocks of the AI companies. I think they're going to go up a lot for one simple reason.The Fed's cutting rates after being on hold for 9 months. You're going to get another probably three cuts between now and January ...