Dollar's Status and Diversification - Bank of America's survey indicates decreasing demand for US assets and investors holding the largest underweight position on the dollar in two decades [1] - While the US dollar is unlikely to lose its reserve currency status entirely, further diversification in its use by central banks is expected [2] - The dollar's share of foreign central bank reserves has decreased from 70% twenty-five years ago to approximately 58% currently, with a potential further decline to 50% [3][4] - An increase in global transactions using currencies other than the dollar is a noteworthy trend [4] US Treasuries and Foreign Demand - Foreigners have been reducing their allocation to US Treasuries for over 10 years, decreasing their ownership from 50% to 30% of the US Treasury market [6] - Despite still buying treasuries, foreign entities are purchasing less relative to the increasing amount being issued, which is concerning given the US's $2 trillion budget deficits [6] Currency Crosses and Market Focus - The yen is a key currency to watch, as its movement is linked to JGB yields, which in turn can influence US Treasuries [8] - The euro is also gaining prominence, with the European Central Bank (ECB) aiming for it to compete with the dollar as a reserve currency [9] Gold as a Reserve Asset - Central banks have significantly increased their gold holdings since the Biden administration restricted Russia's access to US dollars [10] - Gold has become the second-largest foreign central bank reserve holding in terms of value, surpassing the euro [11] - Gold is viewed as an important global reserve asset with further upside potential, beyond just being an inflation hedge or anti-dollar trade [12]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25% to 3377.0 points, with a weekly high of 3413.51 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.6% to 10122.11 points, reaching a high of 10295.4 points [1] - The ChiNext Index rose by 0.22% to 2043.82 points, with a peak of 2076.91 points [1] - In global markets, the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.63%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.32%, and the S&P 500 decreased by 0.39% [1] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.42%, and the Nikkei 225 rose by 0.25% [1] ETF Market Performance - The median weekly return for stock ETFs was -0.19% [2] - The highest weekly return among scale index ETFs was 1.28% for the China Asset Management CSI 500 Enhanced Strategy ETF [2] - The highest weekly return in industry index ETFs was 4.48% for the Penghua National Oil and Gas ETF [2] - The highest weekly return in thematic index ETFs was 6.99% for the Fuguo CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai Innovation Drug Industry ETF [2] ETF Liquidity - Average daily trading volume for stock ETFs increased by 19.9%, while average daily turnover rose by 14.1% [6] ETF Fund Flows - The top five stock ETFs by fund inflow were: - Jiashi CSI 500 ETF with an inflow of 340 million yuan - Penghua National Wine ETF with 339 million yuan - Huaxia SSE STAR 50 ETF with 271 million yuan - Guotai National Military Industry ETF with 225 million yuan - Fuguo National Military Industry Leader ETF with 221 million yuan [9] - The top five stock ETFs by fund outflow were: - Huaxia SSE 50 ETF with an outflow of 635 million yuan - Huatai-PineBridge CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF with 369 million yuan - Invesco CSI A500 ETF with 297 million yuan - Jiashi CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF with 279 million yuan - Huaxia CSI A500 ETF with 262 million yuan [10] ETF Financing and Margin Trading - The financing balance for stock ETFs decreased from 40.7357 billion yuan to 40.2446 billion yuan [11] - The highest financing buy amount was 470 million yuan for the Huaxia SSE STAR 50 ETF [11] ETF Market Size - The total market size for ETFs reached 41,626.28 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.23 billion yuan from the previous week [14] - The stock ETF market accounted for 71.1% of the total ETF market size [16] ETF Issuance and Establishment - No new ETFs were issued last week, but two new ETFs were established: Huabao CSI Pharmaceutical ETF and Fuguo National Consumption Theme ETF [17] Institutional Views - Founder Securities noted that the systematic valuation increase in the innovative drug sector is the biggest catalyst for industry allocation recovery, driven by leading companies entering profitability and R&D pipelines generating regular income [17] - Huaxin Securities expressed a bullish outlook on gold prices due to rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, suggesting that while short-term spikes may occur, long-term factors like real interest rates and global uncertainty will dominate gold price trends [17]

Dollar's Status and Value - The dollar is a reserve currency due to its store of value and usefulness in trade and financial markets, providing the U S with privileges like lower borrowing costs and increased borrowing capacity [1] - The dollar is unlikely to lose its reserve currency status in the next 5-10 years due to the lack of a viable alternative [2] - A dominant reserve currency's value can fluctuate, and the dollar may be in a period of trending down against various currencies [3] Gold as a Reserve Asset - Central banks' purchases of gold are significant and have been increasing [5] - Gold is considered an investment because it doesn't default, a factor that some investors value even more than inflation-indexed securities [6] - Central banks have historically held gold as a reserve for hundreds of years, and there's a return to that mindset [6][7] Tariffs and Trade - Tariffs of the current scale and scope in the U S haven't been seen in decades and have broad economic implications [9] - Tariffs generate revenue for the government, divert some trade into the U S, and onshore some investment [10] - Modeling the effects of tariffs at the current level, such as 10%, is a complex exercise [10]

There's the dollar melting away below 98. It's now at its lowest level since March of 2022, and it's down about 10% against a basket of currencies year to date, as you can see there. Outflows fueled by the president's trade policies, rising odds of a Fed cut, and more.Our next guest, though, knows it's good news for another asset class, the rise of crypto. Mike Novagrath is founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital. They also had an IPO lately, Mike.Uh, it's good to see you again. I think what was the high we hit o ...

U.S. Fiscal Outlook and Treasury Market - The U.S. faces an unsustainable fiscal path, with the interest expense becoming untenable due to high budget deficits and sticky interest rates [1][4] - The average coupon on Treasuries has risen from below 2% to pushing 4%, creating a building problem as trillions of bonds mature and are re-issued at higher rates, a difference of 400 basis points [4][5][6] - The long-term Treasury bond is no longer behaving as a legitimate flight to quality asset, and is not responding to lower interest rates or an inflation rate around 25%, with potential for it to go higher [6][7] - The U.S national debt is approaching $37 trillion, requiring creative solutions, and markets are starting to acknowledge this [7][8] Investment Strategy and Market Dynamics - A paradigm shift is occurring where money is no longer flowing into the United States, and the long bond is not acting as a flight to quality asset, with gold emerging as an alternative [16] - The dollar is falling, and some of the $25 trillion net investment position that flowed into the U.S over the past two decades could potentially flow out, suggesting increased allocations to non-dollar investments [9][10] - The market environment feels similar to 1999 (dot-com bubble) and 2006/2007 (pre-credit crisis), with AI enthusiasm mirroring the dot-com boom [21][22] - A great buying opportunity is anticipated, but the timing is uncertain [21] Private Credit and Alternative Investments - There is overinvestment in private credit, and the excess reward is not as attractive as it once was, potentially leading to forced selling [32] - Gold has proven to be a source of growth, outperforming Bitcoin year-to-date, and is recommended as an asset class, with central banks accumulating gold [16][17][50] - Dollar-based investors should consider investing in foreign currencies and selective emerging market equities, as the S&P 500 is underperforming MSCI Europe year-to-date [51][52] Restructuring and Long-Term Themes - There is a need to restructure various aspects of the system, including institutions, political parties, and finances, due to wealth inequality and calcified property relations [42][46] - India is highlighted as a long-term investment theme, with a similar profile to China 35 years ago, benefiting from demographic outlook, supply chain shifts, and technology [48][49]

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - The market is experiencing a paradigm shift where the long bond is no longer considered a flight to quality asset, with gold emerging as the preferred safe haven [2] - Gold has surged from $1,800 per ounce to over $2,000 per ounce, indicating strong investor interest [2] - Central banks are accumulating gold, reversing a decade-long trend of selling, suggesting a change in their investment strategy [3] - Gold is now viewed as a legitimate asset class, attracting a broader range of investors beyond survivalists and speculators [3] Monetary Policy & Fixed Income - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts in September 2023 led to a significant increase of 100 basis points in the yield of the 30-year Treasury bond [1] - The speaker anticipates this trend may continue, suggesting a potential inverse relationship between rate cuts and long-term Treasury yields [1] Central Bank Behavior - Central banks previously sold gold at prices as low as $300-$400 and are now buying it back at around $3,000, highlighting their poor long-term investment decisions [4]

You can't replace gold with Bitcoin, right. I can't make jewelry out of Bitcoin. I can't conduct electricity with Bitcoin.I mean, they make Bitcoin look like gold. When they draw it, it's a they make it gold and they put a bee on there and it's a coin, but it's just a string of numbers. It's not a coin.It doesn't have any color. How do you really see it compared to gold. It's nothing like gold.And I'm a true Bitcoiner there. I'm holding it down to zero. I'm going down with the ship like everybody else. ...

Investment Strategy - The report suggests that _______ is considered the best hedge against inflation [1] Asset Allocation - The report mentions Altcoins, Gold, and BTC as potential investment options [1]