Market Overview & Valuation Concerns - The market's confidence seems too high relative to existing uncertainties such as Middle East, China-Taiwan, and Russia-Ukraine tensions [3] - S&P 500's valuation is around 23 times earnings, placing it in the 97th percentile of historical valuations, suggesting it's expensive [2] - Tariffs and "guns and butter" policies could lead to crowding out, further exacerbating the stock market's problems [3] - Averages are expected to go nowhere, with individual stock picking and unweighted indices performing better than cap-weighted indices like the S&P 500 [5][6][9] Investment Strategy & Stock Picks - The firm's investment approach is bottom-up, focusing on individual stock selection [7] - Fidelis Insurance (FIHL) is highlighted as a favorite idea, trading at a discount to its book value of around $21 and expected to earn close to 20% on equity, implying around $4 in earnings [7] - Other favored names include Apollo in private equity, Energy Transfer (yielding about 8% with 10% earnings growth), KBR, and Verizon [7][8][9] - The firm likes energy stocks with low production costs, citing Tourmaline, a major natural gas producer in Canada, and Energy Transfer [11] Specific Company Analysis - Mr Cooper is undergoing a "world-class merger" by combining its mortgage servicing rights (number one) with Rocket Mortgage's mortgage origination (number one) [8] - Legato's bonds are considered undervalued at 30 cents on the dollar, with potential for a triple in capital appreciation plus a coupon; the firm believes the government is unfairly treating the company regarding its 5G spectrum [12][13]

Geopolitical Impact on Markets - The market initially reacted positively because the situation between Israel and Iran didn't worsen significantly over the weekend [2] - Markets generally don't react strongly to geopolitics, except for oil prices, which are closely monitored [2][3] - The market believes that as long as the US remains on the sidelines and oil prices stay relatively stable, the conflict's impact on stocks will be manageable [4] - US involvement would change the market's assessment [2][5] Market Drivers and Sentiment - The primary driver of the market is currently momentum, with a return to the momentum trade [6] - Equity markets assess geopolitical events based on their potential impact on companies' bottom lines [7] - The AI trade and mega-cap tech are currently not significantly affected by the geopolitical situation in the short term [8] Economic Concerns and Fed Policy - The economy is showing signs of a slowdown, which is a concern [11][12] - The Fed is unlikely to cut rates due to concerns about tariffs and potential higher oil prices [9][12][13] - The major risk is that the economy slows down while the Fed remains on the sidelines, potentially disrupting the momentum trade in the long run [13]

Student Loan Management - Yahoo Finance provides expert insights on managing college debt and paying off student loans [1] - The report highlights important information regarding interest rates and refinancing options for student loans [1] Yahoo Finance Resources - Yahoo Finance offers free stock ticker data, up-to-date news, and portfolio management resources [1] - The platform provides comprehensive market data and advanced tools for financial management [1] - Users can access the latest financial news and data on finance.yahoo.com [1] - Yahoo Finance has a mobile app available on Apple (https://apple.co/3Rten0R) and Android (https://bit.ly/3t8UnXO) [1] Social Media Presence - Yahoo Finance maintains active social media accounts on X (Twitter), Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and LinkedIn [1]

What's going on here. Trump has proven to be right. You know, all of these things.We've taken it 88 billion in tariffs in two months. 88 billion with no inflation. Now, would like to get this guy to lower interest rates because, you know, if he doesn't, we have to pay.We have a lot of short-term debt. If he'd lower it by two points, we pay 600 billion dollars a year. That's for years, 10 years, 12 years, whatever we make it.But we can't get this guy to do it. And the fake news is saying, "Oh, if you fired h ...

I like long term cheap debt, but a lot of the debt comes through because Biden that's what he didn't do it. I'm sure he didn't know anything about it, but somebody approved short term debt. It's all over the place and it comes due starting very soon.And if we would lower the interest rates by one point, we pay about one point less. That's $300 billion a year. Can you believe at one point if it lowered by two points.We pay $600 billion a year, leases for years, ten years, 12 years, whatever we make it. But w ...

former Treasury official and Morning Joe economic analyst Steve Ratner. Steve, there has indeed been plenty of speculation about how Trump's tariffs will impact the country. So tell us, how does the economy look almost 5 months into Trump's second term.Yeah, it's interesting, Jonathan. I think uh all of us predicted that inflation would start to go up as a result of those tariffs, but yesterday there was a report that in fact it has really not yet gone up, or at least not yet gone up. So the commerce depart ...

Market Anomalies - Historically, the dollar index increases when the S&P 500 declines by more than 10%, but recently the dollar decreased while the S&P 500 fell almost 20% [1] - Typically, the 10-year Treasury yield decreases following the first Federal Reserve rate cut, but this time it increased, and the yield curve is steepening [2] US Treasury Market & Debt - The US faces an unsustainable interest expense due to a $21 trillion budget deficit and persistent interest rates [3] - The average coupon on Treasuries has risen from below 2% to nearly 4% [3][4] - Maturing bonds issued in 2008, 2009, and even 2019 with coupons as low as 025% are being replaced with bonds at 425%, a 400 basis points increase [4][5] - The long-term Treasury bond is losing its status as a reliable flight to quality asset, not responding as expected to lower interest rates or the current 25% inflation rate [5] Inflation Outlook - Near-term inflation is likely to rise, as the cumulative headline CPI rolling off from a year ago was 01%, while the most recent CPI was 018% [6] US National Debt Concerns - The US national debt is rapidly approaching $37 trillion, requiring innovative solutions [7]

Vice President JD Vance went after the Federal Reserve for declining to lower interest rates, as President Donald Trump has continuously demanded, in the latest White House criticism of the bank. (Photo: Getty Images) https://t.co/SeMPDYnlYy https://t.co/CE5ZZ5WhLi ...

With interest rates on the decline, many banking customers are doing anything they can to continue earning high returns on their deposits. One potential option is a jumbo money market account (MMA). These accounts require a higher minimum deposit than traditional MMAs (usually $100,000 and up). And in return for that larger balance, jumbo money market accounts often pay higher interest rates. Due to the high deposit requirements, jumbo MMAs may not be the best option for everyone. However, it’s one way t ...