Market Downturn Factors - Crypto market面临四大下行压力，包括期权到期、美国政府可能停摆、强劲的经济数据以及过高的杠杆[1][2][3] - 价值 230 亿美元的比特币和以太坊期权即将到期，这通常会带来高波动性[1] - 10 月 1 日美国政府关门的几率现在是 67%，过去政府关门曾导致市场调整[1][2] - 美国第二季度 GDP 修订数据为 3.8%，高于预期的 3.3%，良好的经济数据在短期内利空，因为它降低了降息的可能性[2] - 零售交易者开设了高杠杆头寸，导致大量清算，从而导致市场抛售[2][3] Whale Manipulation - Whales（巨鲸）可能正在策划一次抛售，目的是在第四季度反弹之前让投资者恐慌性抛售[3] - Whales 在 9 月份以看涨的方式启动，以诱导人们认为市场只会单边上涨，然后开始抛售[3] Max Pain Price - 比特币的最大痛点价格为 11 万美元，以太坊为 3700 美元，通常 Whales 会将价格推向最大痛点[1]

Core Insights - The infrastructure supporting crypto assets is crucial for institutional adoption, with a focus on a "picks and shovels" investment strategy that emphasizes owning supporting infrastructure rather than just cryptocurrencies [1] - Upcoming regulations, such as the U.S. Senate's digital asset market structure bill and the U.S. House's clarity act, are anticipated to create a bullish market environment if passed, reflecting investor optimism [2][3] - Institutional investment in crypto is still limited, but any significant allocation from major financial institutions could dramatically impact price discovery, highlighting the importance of regulatory clarity [4] Regulation and Market Structure - Regulation has evolved with the introduction of bitcoin ETFs and the GENIUS Act, which guarantees stablecoins against USD, indicating growing institutional confidence in crypto [3] - The current market is characterized by a search for significant events that could drive price discovery, with institutional investment seen as a key factor [4] Investment Strategies - A diversified crypto portfolio should include investments in infrastructure, exchanges, and energy sources, with a recommendation to allocate about 20% of the portfolio to crypto-related investments [9] - The focus should be on a few key cryptocurrencies, such as BTC and ETH, which represent the majority of holdings, while employing strategies that replicate income generation through wrapping [10][11] Access and Engagement - Understanding the various access models in crypto investing is essential, as they influence ownership, custody, execution, and risk [15][16] - Different investment strategies, such as delta-neutral, market-neutral, and long-short quantitative approaches, provide investors with options beyond simple buy-and-hold strategies [17][18][19] Recent Developments - Partnerships among companies like Visa, Stripe, and Fold to launch a bitcoin rewards credit card, along with the SEC's efforts to streamline crypto ETF applications, indicate a growing acceptance and integration of crypto in traditional finance [25]

Beta is a measurement of the price volatility of a stock or other asset relative to the market as a whole. Higher volatility means higher risk. https://t.co/JRaDxnuBuV ...

REMINDER:- 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims- 🇺🇸 Core PCE Prices (Q2)- 🇺🇸 GDP QoQ (Q2)ALL DROPPING TODAY.EXPECT VOLATILITY! https://t.co/1Rny4yyPUY ...

Market Volatility & Crypto Pullback - Crypto market experienced a pullback after a period of significant growth, with some cryptocurrencies increasing almost threefold [1] - Factors contributing to the pullback include markets becoming overextended, leverage unwinding, and concerns raised by thought leaders regarding specific tokens like Hyper liquid [2][3] - Despite the pullback, Bitcoin remains significantly up for the year, maintaining a positive context [4] Equity Market & Crypto Correlation - The equity market is experiencing a euphoric moment with high valuations and excitement surrounding transformative themes [5][6] - There's nervousness in the equity market due to high valuations and interconnectedness among companies like Nvidia, OpenAI, and Oracle [7] - Crypto's traditional four-year cycles suggest a potential peak in December, but new legislation could disrupt this pattern [10][11] Regulatory Landscape & Future Participation - The potential passage of stablecoin legislation and another bill defining securities and commodities in the US could unlock significant new participation in the crypto market [12] - The US government's support for the crypto industry could lead to a new wave of participation, potentially deviating from traditional market cycles [13][14]

Bitcoin volatility has hit its lowest level since October 2023... https://t.co/0gupRGWmYL ...

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The longer your holding period, the fewer apologies you owe to volatility. ...

The week didn’t end with Powell’s speech, major macro data is still ahead. 👇Thursday:- US GDP (Q2)- Initial Jobless ClaimsFriday:- Core PCE Price IndexPrepare for volatility! https://t.co/VprkTUFe0H ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 reached all-time highs at the start of the session but experienced a pullback, closing down 0.6% at 6,656 points [16] - Approximately 60% of S&P 500 stocks were in the green, indicating a defensive market with utilities and energy sectors performing well [4][5] - The overall market trend remains upward despite the pullback, with key support levels around 6,650 [2][3] Sector Performance - Energy sector saw a notable increase of 1.7%, driven by a rebound in crude oil prices, which crossed the $61 threshold [11][12] - Consumer staples also showed resilience after a recent sell-off, contributing to a mixed market picture [5][18] - Technology and consumer discretionary sectors faced declines, with technology down over 1% [16][18] Micron Earnings Report - Micron reported fourth-quarter earnings with EPS of $3.30, exceeding estimates of $2.84, and adjusted revenue of $11.32 billion, surpassing expectations of $11.15 billion [19][20] - Gross margins improved to 45.7%, above the expected 44.3%, indicating strong operational performance [20][23] - Guidance for the first quarter revenue is projected between $12.2 billion and $12.8 billion, significantly higher than the street's expectations [21][22] Margin and Growth Insights - Micron's operating margins expanded to 32.3%, up from 23.3% in the previous year, reflecting effective cost management and pricing power [25][27] - The company is experiencing growth across all business segments, including a notable increase in mobile business gross margins [28] - Analysts are optimistic about Micron's ability to sustain growth moving into 2026, with expectations for continued demand in high bandwidth memory and DRAM chips [32][34]