Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing military tensions between Russia and Ukraine, highlighting recent troop movements, airstrikes, and diplomatic statements from both sides, indicating a complex and evolving conflict situation. Group 1: Military Developments - Reports indicate that Russia has gathered 110,000 soldiers near the strategic city of Pokrovsk, aiming to capture it as part of its broader objective to control eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donetsk and Luhansk regions [2][5][6] - On June 27, Ukrainian forces conducted a precision strike on a Russian airbase in Volgograd, damaging four aircraft, including Su-34s, to weaken Russia's airstrike capabilities against Ukraine [3][7][8] - The Ukrainian military reported 187 combat incidents in frontline areas on the same day, reflecting the ongoing intensity of the conflict [10] Group 2: Strategic Importance of Pokrovsk - Pokrovsk, while not a major city, is strategically located on key supply routes connecting it to other military hubs in the Donetsk region, making it a significant target for Russian forces [6] - The city had a pre-war population of approximately 60,000, but most residents have evacuated since the conflict began in February 2022 [6] Group 3: Diplomatic Statements - Russian President Putin stated that U.S. President Trump has played a role in normalizing U.S.-Russia relations, expressing appreciation for Trump's efforts to mediate the Ukraine situation [4][16][17] - Trump responded positively to Putin's remarks, indicating a shift in the tone of U.S.-Russia relations compared to the previous administration [17][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Ukraine plans to advance discussions for a meeting between Ukrainian and Russian leaders, aiming for substantial dialogue following humanitarian discussions [1] - Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov indicated that further details regarding the progress of negotiations and subsequent approaches will be provided soon [1] - Umerov emphasized that any dialogue must occur without ultimatums and should fully respect Ukraine's sovereignty [1]

Group 1 - President Putin assessed the current state of the Russian economy, highlighting that Russia's economic size ranks first in Europe, and discussed inflation rates, GDP growth, foreign trade, and military industry [1] - The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum attracted around 20,000 representatives from 140 countries and regions [1] - Putin did not address the Russia-Ukraine conflict during his speech, focusing instead on global economic and political issues [1] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed the need for a genuine ceasefire and readiness to meet with Putin for high-level discussions [3] - Russian officials, including Deputy Chairman of the State Duma's International Affairs Committee, suggested that Zelensky's call for a meeting was more about personal publicity than a genuine diplomatic effort [3] - Putin indicated a willingness to meet with Zelensky to expedite peace talks, stating that if peaceful agreements cannot be reached, military means will be employed [3] Group 3 - Political analysts believe the likelihood of a direct meeting between Putin and Zelensky is low due to legitimacy issues surrounding Zelensky's government [4] - Ukrainian officials noted that previous talks in Istanbul did not significantly alter the current stalemate in the peace process [4] - The Kremlin emphasized that Russia will not relinquish its strategic advantages for a temporary ceasefire and will continue military operations unless Ukraine halts foreign military support [4] Group 4 - The Russian Defense Ministry reported multiple strikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure, including the destruction of military factories and fuel supply facilities [5] - A recent airstrike on the southern port city of Odesa resulted in casualties, with Ukrainian air defenses intercepting a significant number of Russian drones [5] - Kremlin spokesperson Peskov mentioned that both sides might agree on the timing for a third round of negotiations next week [5]

Core Viewpoint - The statement from President Putin emphasizes Russia's recognition of Ukraine's sovereignty and the importance of negotiations between the two nations [1] Group 1 - Russia has never doubted Ukraine's rights to sovereignty [1] - At every stage, Russia has suggested halting negotiations and engaging in talks with Ukraine [1]

Core Viewpoint - The situation in Ukraine in 2022 is perceived to be significantly better than the current state, according to Russian President Putin, indicating a potential deterioration if Kyiv refuses to engage in negotiations [1] Group 1 - President Putin suggests that the current conditions in Ukraine are worse than in 2022, highlighting a shift in the geopolitical landscape [1] - The statement implies that ongoing refusal to negotiate by Kyiv could lead to further negative developments in the region [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Putin expresses skepticism about Germany's ability to act as a mediator in negotiations with Ukraine [1]

Group 1 - The timing for the next round of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is currently uncertain, as stated by the Russian presidential press secretary Peskov [1] - Russia will assess the potential timeline for continuing negotiations in the coming days [1] - The first direct negotiations in three years took place on May 16 in Istanbul, Turkey, followed by a second round on June 2 [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, specific ratings for some products are as follows: - **Bullish**: Jiao Coal, Coke, Ethylene Glycol [1] - **Bearish**: None explicitly stated - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Most of the products, including stocks, treasury bonds, gold, various non - ferrous metals, building materials, agricultural products, and energy - chemical products [1] Core Views of the Report - Domestic factors have limited driving force on the stock index, with weak fundamentals and a relatively policy - vacuum environment. Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations. Although there are positive signals in Sino - US economic and trade relations recently, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but caution is needed due to the possible repetition of Sino - US tariff signals [1]. - Different factors drive the trends of various commodities. For example, asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's warning of interest - rate risks restricts the upward space; the long - term upward logic of gold is solid, but it may fluctuate in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Driven by overseas variables in the short term, expected to fluctuate strongly, but be cautious of the repetition of Sino - US tariff signals [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's warning of interest - rate risks restricts the upward space, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Gold**: May oscillate in the short term, with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - **Yin**: Expected to continue to be strong in the short term, but beware of a pull - back [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US talks boost market sentiment, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand and volatile macro - sentiment may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - **Alumina**: Spot price is stable, futures price is weak, and increased production pressure on the futures price, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Zinc**: Inventory increase on Monday pressures the price, and the subsequent downward space depends on the sustainability of social inventory reduction on Thursday [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term oscillation following the macro - environment, long - term pressure from primary nickel surplus, pay attention to inventory changes [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term bottom - oscillation, long - term supply pressure exists, pay attention to steel mill production arrangements [1]. - **Tin**: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply shows improvement, demand is low, and inventory pressure is huge, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Downstream production scheduling drops rapidly, futures premium over spot, and warehouse receipts increase [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Mine prices continue to fall, downstream procurement is inactive, and raw material inventory is high [1]. Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: In the window period of switching from peak to off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand balance, no upward price drive is observed, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation of iron - water peak, and supply may increase in June, pay attention to steel pressure, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Short - term supply - demand balance, slight increase in production, acceptable demand, but heavy warehouse - receipt pressure, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost is affected by coal, some alloy plants resume production, and there is still pressure of supply surplus, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Glass Film**: Supply and demand are both weak, with the arrival of the off - peak season, demand weakens, and the price continues to be weak, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Maintenance resumes, direct demand is acceptable, but concerns about supply surplus resurface, and terminal demand is weak, price is under pressure, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price continues to weaken, and the futures price rebounds to repair the discount. It can still be short - sold, with the upper limit of the target price at 780 - 800 [1]. - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal, with the continuous decline of coal - entering - furnace cost, the price drops synchronously, expected to decline [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB released a May report with expected production + 3%, export + 17%, and inventory + 9%. There may be a gap - opening market if there are unexpected data [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: A game between weak fundamentals and fluctuations of other oils, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The expectation of China - Canada negotiations is blocked, and there is a lack of key negative driving factors, beware of a rebound in the market [1]. - **Cotton**: Affected by trade negotiations and weather premiums in the short term, with strong macro - uncertainty in the long term, expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil is weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio [1]. - **Wheat**: Supported by the purchase - support policy, with tightening supply and increasing demand, expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Soybeans**: The pressure of Brazilian soybean arrivals is mainly reflected in the basis and near - month contracts. The market lacks upward momentum, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Pulp**: Demand is light at present, but the downward space is limited, it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Supply is abundant, demand is light, it is recommended to hold short positions or short after a rebound [1]. - **Hogs**: The futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the futures price is expected to be stable [1]. Energy - Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: Affected by Sino - US calls, geopolitical situation, and summer consumption peak [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The futures - spot price difference has fully converged, raw material prices have fallen, and inventory has decreased significantly, expected to oscillate [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The short - term fundamentals are loose, expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the support of butadiene maintenance and demand improvement in the long term [1]. - **PTA**: The tight situation has been alleviated, and short - fiber costs are closely related. Some factories have planned maintenance [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, imports are blocked, and it continues to destock. It is expected to decline [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - term tight situation has been alleviated, and short - fiber factories have planned maintenance [1]. - **Styrene**: The speculative demand has weakened, the device load has increased, inventory has risen, and the basis has weakened, expected to oscillate [1]. - **Urea**: The daily production is still high, and the short - term export demand is expected to increase, and the market may rebound [1]. - **Methanol**: The domestic start - up rate remains high, inventory is increasing, and traditional downstream demand is weak, expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **PP**: The support of maintenance is limited, orders are for rigid demand, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: Maintenance is about to end, new devices are put into operation, and the off - peak season is coming, supply pressure increases, expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **LPG**: The price is weak, in a narrow - range fluctuation, and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. Others - **Three - cloud Line**: The market shows a strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly long - tested, and attention can be paid to 6 - 8 reverse spreads and 8 - 10, 12 - 4 positive spreads [1].

大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 燃料油日报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 燃料油日报 第一部分 相关数据 研究员： 大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 市场概况 吴晓蓉 期货从业证号： F03108405 投资咨询从业证号： Z0021537 ： 021-65789108 ： wuxiaorong_qh @chinastock.com.cn | | 2025/6/9 | 2025/6/6 | 2025/6/3 | 2025/5/12 | Δ日 | Δ周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU主力 | 2927 | 2943 | 2913 | 2996 | -16 | 14 | | FU主力持仓(万手) | 8.5 | 9.4 | 11.1 | 14.3 | -0.9 | -2.6 | | FU仓单(吨) | 28950 | 28950 | 28950 | 44390 | 0 | 0 | | LU主力 | 3514 | 3525 | 3466 | 3518 | -11 | 48 | | LU主力持仓(万手） | 6.8 | 7.1 | ...

金十数据6月9日讯，土耳其外交消息人士表示，俄乌代表团乌克兰问题下一轮谈判日期尚未确定，但土 耳其方面愿意组织谈判。俄罗斯和乌克兰代表团第二轮谈判6月2日在土耳其伊斯坦布尔举行，谈判持续 了一个多小时。俄乌双方交换了涉冲突解决问题的备忘录。 （俄罗斯卫星网） 消息人士：俄乌下一轮谈判日期尚未确定，土耳其愿组织谈判 ...