投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251010 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙、何天 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：加沙停火协议落地，A 股站上 3900 点 海外方面，美国政府关门僵局依旧未解，参议院第七次否决拨款案，特朗普威胁永久削 减民主党项目，美国劳工统计局准备在政府关门期间发布 9 月 CPI 数据。以美联储官员分 歧加剧：巴尔主张谨慎降息，警惕通胀仍快；威廉姆斯则称经济未衰退、支持年内再降息， 目前市场仍定价年内、明年各降息 2 次。美元指数走高至 99.5，美债利率震荡，美股低迷收 跌，以色列批准加沙停火协议，金价迎来调整，油价收跌，铜价受矿山供应中断催化继续上 涨。 国内方面，节后首个交易日股债双红，上证指数站上 3900 点继续创下十年新高，两市 成交额 2.67 万亿、超 3100 只个股收涨，科创 50、沪深 300 相对占优，贵金属、有色、发电 设备板块领涨，预计股市短期仍将结构性震荡上涨，同时关注监管降温信号。假期人均消费 偏弱、地产成交量能低迷，资金面偏松+弱现实下债市小幅上涨，10Y、30Y 利率下行至 ...

责编：黄之安、姚凯红 拉夫罗夫还说，以色列对受国际原子能机构保障监督的伊朗核设施发动袭击，以及对在卡塔尔首都多哈 进行谈判的巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）代表团发动袭击，都应受到谴责。 新华社联合国9月27日电 俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫27日在联合国大会一般性辩论发言时警告说，以色列对 巴勒斯坦人非法使用武力，还对伊朗、卡塔尔、也门、黎巴嫩、叙利亚等国家动武，试图"引爆"整个中 东地区。 拉夫罗夫说，加沙地带的巴勒斯坦儿童正在遭受轰炸和饥饿，医院和学校被摧毁，数十万人流离失所， 以色列对加沙地带的巴勒斯坦人进行集体惩罚毫无道理。以色列吞并约旦河西岸地区的计划也毫无道 理。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Amidst the long - short game, the market is in the bottom - building process. It's not advisable to increase positions further, and stop - losses should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it's recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [3]. - Market pessimism has been repaired. The rise in crude oil prices has boosted the sentiment of long - positions to some extent, but the market pulled back after the morning surge due to capital withdrawal, showing a generally strong and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - On September 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% [2]. - On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 673.61 points, down 7.65%; for the US - West route, it was 944.89 points, down 23.30% [2]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1198.21 points on September 19, down 199.90 points from the previous period. Its European - line price was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8%; the US - West route was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% [2]. - On September 19, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1537.28 points, down 6.2%; for the US - West route, it was 757.45 points, down 2.2% [2]. 3.2 Market Conditions of Main Contracts - On September 24, the main contract 2510 closed at 1100.0, with a 2.67% increase. The trading volume was 24,680 lots, and the open interest was 40,900 lots, a decrease of 568 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are strong. It's recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottom - building opportunities. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It's recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pull - back before determining the subsequent direction [4]. 3.4 Policy and Geopolitical Events - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has made no substantial progress. The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect [3]. - On September 23, a ship reported an explosion in the sea area about 222 kilometers east of Aden, Yemen, but the ship and its crew were safe and continued normal navigation [5]. - The United Nations investigation committee stated on September 23 that the Israeli government intends to establish permanent control over the Gaza Strip and ensure a Jewish majority in the occupied West Bank. In July, Israel's control area in the Gaza Strip expanded to 75% [5]. - On September 24, the Ministry of Transport, the National Railway Administration, and China National Railway Group Co., Ltd. issued a plan to promote the in - depth integration of container rail - water intermodal transportation from 2025 to 2027, aiming for an average annual growth of about 15% in container rail - water intermodal transportation volume by 2027 [5]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].

中东局势持续升温，以色列向美国搬救兵 美国会帮以色列出头吗？ 这事儿还真不好说。虽然美以好得能穿一条裤子，每年军援都是几十亿美金地给。但埃及也是美国的重要合作伙伴，光反恐情报 这一项就值回票价。拜登政府现在肯定在拨算盘：要是把埃及惹毛了，中东这盘棋还怎么下？ 会打起来吗？专家分析： - 短期看不太可能：埃及现在经济 吃紧，打仗这种奢侈品买不起 - 但红线被踩就难说：如果以色列真把难民往西奈赶，或者炸到埃及家门口，那埃及的导弹可不是摆设 眼下这出三国演义越来越精彩，各国大使馆的电话估 计都要打爆了。要说最苦的还是老百姓——和平的鸽子什么时候才能飞回这片土地呢？ 最近中东火药味越来越浓了！据《以色列时报》9月20日爆料，以色列悄悄向美国递了小纸条，想让老大哥帮忙给埃及施压。原来，以色列发现埃及正在西 奈半岛悄悄调兵遣将，这在他们看来可是踩了1979年和平条约的红线。 埃及这次调兵葫芦里卖的什么药？ 明眼人都能看出两层意思： 1. 防难民潮：以色列最近对加沙的轰炸越来越狠，据说内部还有人提议把巴勒斯坦老百姓都赶到西奈半岛去。埃及可不傻——想想看，要是百万难民突然涌 进来，吃饭、住房、治安全得乱套。现在派重兵把守边境 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS has dropped below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks, and the freight rates in October have been further reduced. The spot freight rates show a smooth downward trend in the off - season with an expanding decline. Attention should be paid to whether the rate of freight rate reduction can slow down and whether the bottom of the freight rate can be formed. The tense situation in the Middle East may support the far - month contracts. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the October contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the SCFIS fell below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks. The freight rates in October were further reduced, with the opening price in the first half of October dropping to a minimum of $1400/FEU. Taking the Shanghai - Rotterdam route as an example, Maersk's quotes for the first and second weeks of October were $1400 and $1470 respectively, about $200 lower than the late - September quotes. Other airlines followed suit, with the quotes of major airlines concentrated between $1435 - $1500, also about $200 lower than before. The 12 - month contract may have low - buying opportunities, and the 10 - month contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8]. 4.2 Industry News - From September 15th to 19th, the demand for China's export container transportation was weak, the market freight rates on ocean routes continued to adjust, and the decline of the composite index widened. The year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries nationwide was 5.2%, showing strong resilience. On September 19th, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1198.21 points, a 14.3% drop from the previous period. In the European route, Germany's economic situation was still sluggish. The freight rates in the spot market continued to decline. In the Mediterranean route, the supply - demand fundamentals were weak, and the market freight rates continued to adjust. In the North American route, the consumer confidence index in the United States dropped to a new low since May this year, and the freight rates in the spot market dropped significantly. There were also reports on the tense situation in the Middle East, including the US veto of the Gaza cease - fire resolution and the Israeli military's actions in Gaza [9][10]. 4.3 Data Overview 4.3.1 Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping - The SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) on September 22, 2025, was 1254.92 points, a 12.9% drop from September 15th. The SCFIS for the US - West route (basic ports) was 1193.64 points, an 11.6% drop from September 15th [12]. 4.3.2 Futures Quotes of Container Shipping Index (European Route) - Trading data for September 22nd showed that different contracts of container shipping futures (European route) had different price changes, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the EC2510 contract had a closing price of 1,093.7, a settlement price of 1,102.0, a rise of 21.4, and a rise rate of 2.00%, with a trading volume of 44,939 and an open interest of 46,030 [6]. 4.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Various charts related to shipping data were provided, including the Shanghai Export Containerized Settlement Freight Index, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][17][22]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottoming process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - Spot freight rates are maintaining a low level, the bulk market is generally weak, the US has cut the benchmark interest rate again, and market pessimism persists. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Content Freight Index - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1440.24 points, down 8.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1349.84 points, up 37.7% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 903.32 points, down 11.71%; the NCFI for the European route was 729.42 points, down 14.78%; the NCFI for the US - West route on September 12 was 1216.14 points, down 9.13% [1]. - On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1398.11 points, down 46.33 points from the previous period; the SCFI European - line price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 12.24%; the SCFI US - West route was 2370 USD/FEU, up 8.27%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1125.30 points, down 2.1%; the CCFI for the European route was 1537.28 points, down 6.2%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 757.45 points, down 2.2% [1]. Economic Data - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month [2]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5, the service PMI was 50.7, and the composite PMI was 51.1, higher than in July and the highest since May 2024 [1]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, and the service PMI was 55.4 [2]. Tariff and Trade - The Sino - US tariff issue has evolved into a trade negotiation problem between the US and other countries. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the focus is on the direction of spot freight rates [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1200 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend and set stop - losses [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [3]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback [3]. Contract Information - On September 18, the main contract 2510 closed at 1105.9, down 2.08%, with a trading volume of 1.96 million lots and an open interest of 4.72 million lots, a decrease of 2436 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3].

Price Trends - Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFIS) for Europe decreased to 1440.24 points, down 8.1% from the previous period[2] - Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for Europe fell to 729.42 points, down 14.78% from the previous period[2] - SCFIS for the US West Coast increased to 1349.84 points, up 37.7% from the previous period[2] - NCFI for the US West Coast dropped to 1216.14 points, down 9.13% from the previous period[2] Economic Indicators - Eurozone August Manufacturing PMI was 50.5, above the forecast of 49.5 and previous value of 49.8[2] - Eurozone August Services PMI initial value was 50.7, slightly below the forecast of 50.8[2] - US August Manufacturing PMI initial value reached 53.3, the highest in 39 months, exceeding the forecast of 49.5[2] Market Sentiment - Ongoing US-China trade negotiations show no substantial progress, leading to a slight decline in spot prices[3] - The main contract closed at 1163.1, with a decrease of 1.57% and a trading volume of 17,800 contracts[3] - Recommendations suggest light positions or observation due to geopolitical tensions and tariff fluctuations[3] Strategic Recommendations - Short-term strategy advises maintaining weak positions in main contracts and stronger positions in distant contracts[4] - Suggested light long positions around 1200 for the 2510 contract and around 1600 for the 2512 contract[4] - Long-term strategy recommends taking profits on high points and waiting for stabilization before making further decisions[4]

【导读】以军夜间大规模空袭加沙城 据CCTV国际时讯，9月15日，卡塔尔埃米尔（国家元首）塔米姆在多哈举行的阿拉伯 － 伊斯兰国家紧急峰会上强烈谴责以色列9月9日对 多哈的袭击，指出以色列在谈判过程中蓄意暗杀哈马斯领导层暴露其"假谈判真破坏"的战略意图，并警告以色列正企图将阿拉伯世界变为 其势力范围的"危险幻想"。 本次紧急峰会为期一天，与会国家会后发表联合声明，"对以色列袭击卡塔尔的野蛮侵略行径予以最强烈谴责"。声明强调，与会国家与卡 塔尔站在一起，共同对抗以色列的侵略，对卡塔尔的袭击"被视为对所有阿拉伯和伊斯兰国家的侵略"。 声明指出，以色列对卡塔尔的野蛮袭击破坏了地区和平前景，对斡旋方和中立 调解 场所的袭击是对外交努力的公然挑衅，破坏了国际斡旋 进程。与会国家支持卡塔尔等国为结束加沙冲突所作的调停努力。声明表示坚决拒绝任何对以色列侵略行为的辩护，拒绝以色列威胁再次 袭击卡塔尔的言论。 中国基金报记者 李智 一起来关注下中东局势最新情况。 以军夜间大规模空袭加沙城 以色列多家媒体援引军方消息报道称，当地时间9月15日晚，以军对巴勒斯坦加沙地带北部的加沙城实施大规模空袭。以色列瓦拉通讯社援 引以军总参谋部 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, and the market is in the process of bottom - building with large recent fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3]. - After the bullish sentiment is exhausted, combined with the continuous decline of spot freight rates and the repeated Middle - East situation, the market stops rising and starts to fall. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. Summary by Relevant Aspects Market Data - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI announced a price of 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2]. - On September 3, the main contract 2510 closed at 1323.0, with a decline of 3.04%, a trading volume of 25,500 lots, and an open interest of 51,900 lots, a decrease of 2211 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Indicators - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51); the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, the highest since May 2024 and higher than the expected 50.7 [2]. - The eurozone's August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month [2]. - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7); the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2]. Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are stronger. Risk - preferring investors are advised to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or lightly attempt [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The US - China tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [3]. - The Israeli - Palestinian conflict situation: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the Israeli army is preparing to attack Gaza City, and the Israeli army is conducting large - scale reserve recruitment [5]. - The daily limit and circuit breaker for contracts from 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, and the market is in the process of bottom - building with large fluctuations recently. It is not recommended to increase positions and stop - losses should be set [1] - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3] - After the bullish sentiment is exhausted, the market stops rising and starts to fall. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - On September 1st, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [2] - On August 29th, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2] - On August 29th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI composite index was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; SCFI European route price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; SCFI US West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2] - On August 29th, the China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2] Market Conditions - On September 3rd, the main contract 2510 closed at 1323.0, with a decline of 3.04%, a trading volume of 25,500 lots, and an open interest of 51,900 lots, a decrease of 2211 lots from the previous day [3] PMI Data - Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8); services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51); composite PMI was 51.1, higher than July's 50.9 and the expected 50.7 [2] - China's August manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [2] - US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8); services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous 55.7); Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (expected 49.7, previous 49.8) [2] Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends and set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or lightly test positions [4] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4] Other Information - Israel is preparing to attack Gaza City, and the Israeli military is conducting large - scale reserve recruitment [5] - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]