1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The long - term bullish factors for soybean oil continue, but the amplitude has increased. It is recommended to shift long positions to the 09 contract. The support level for the 09 contract is 8500 - 8550 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: In the short - term, rapeseed oil may continue to fluctuate widely. It is advisable to wait and see and look for opportunities to go long after stabilization. The 05 contract's upper resistance range is 10000 - 10100, and the lower support range is 9450 - 9460 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Considering the positive factors such as biodiesel policies, geopolitical tensions, and strong exports of Malaysian palm oil, palm oil can be treated with a cautious bullish attitude, mainly adopting the strategy of going long on dips. The upper resistance range for the main contract is 10200 - 10220, and the lower support range is 9400 - 9410 [2]. - **Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal**: The cost - side support for the far - month contracts continues. It is recommended to arrange long positions in the 09 contracts of soybean No. 2 and soybean meal. The support level for the 09 contract of soybean meal is 2940 - 2950 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 3070 - 3080 yuan/ton. The lower support for the 05 contract of soybean No. 2 is 3700 - 3720, and the upper resistance is 3850 - 3860 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In the short - term, the price of rapeseed meal may continue to fluctuate and bottom out. It is advisable to wait and see and look for opportunities to go long after stabilization. The RM contract's lower support level is 2280 - 2300, and the upper resistance level is 2500 - 2510 [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The short - term futures prices may adjust slightly. It is recommended to wait and see or look for opportunities to go long on dips. The support range for the 2605 contract of corn is 2250 - 2280, and the resistance range is 2450 - 2480. The support range for the 05 contract of corn starch is 2670 - 2680, and the resistance range is 2850 - 2860 [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The upward driving force for soybean No. 1 is expected to be insufficient. It is not advisable to chase long positions. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The resistance level for the 05 contract is 4740 - 4760 yuan/ton, and the support level is 4400 - 4450 yuan/ton [6]. - **Hogs**: The short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to change fundamentally. Cautious investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2607 contract lightly below 11000 points after the release of spot pressure. For options, a covered call strategy combination can be held [7]. - **Eggs**: Cautious investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can go long on the 05 contract below 3400 points. It is not advisable to chase short positions in the near - month contracts at historical low price ranges [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 05 contract is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see. Soybean No. 2 05 contract is in a wide - range adjustment. It is also recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Oils**: The 09 contract of soybean oil, 05 contract of rapeseed oil, and 05 contract of palm oil are all in a wide - range or oscillatory pattern. The 09 contract of soybean oil can be considered for long positions after stabilization, the 05 contract of rapeseed oil is recommended to wait and see, and the 05 contract of palm oil can be bought on dips [10]. - **Proteins**: The 09 contract of soybean meal and 05 contract of rapeseed meal are in an oscillatory pattern. It is recommended to go long after stabilization [10]. - **Energy and By - products**: The 05 contracts of corn and corn starch are in an oscillatory adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Livestock**: The 05 contracts of hogs and eggs are in an oscillatory bottom - seeking pattern. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Oilseeds**: For the 5 - 9 spreads of soybean No. 1 and soybean No. 2, it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Oils**: For the 5 - 9 spreads of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 05 spreads of soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and rapeseed oil - palm oil, it is also recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Proteins**: For the 5 - 9 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 05 spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal, it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: For the 5 - 9 spread of corn, it is recommended to go short on rallies. For the 5 - 9 spread of corn starch, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 05 spread of corn - corn starch, it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Livestock**: For the 5 - 7 spread of hogs, it is recommended to hold reverse arbitrage positions. For the 5 - 7 spread of eggs, it is recommended to wait and see [12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, such as the arrival premium, futures prices, CNF prices, and import - duty - paid prices [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory changes and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseeds, rapeseed meal, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil, as well as their corresponding operating rates [18]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF prices and import - duty - paid costs [18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the weekly data of corn and corn starch, such as the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress of corn in deep - processing enterprises, as well as the inventory of corn starch enterprises [19]. 3.2.3 Livestock - It provides the daily and weekly data of hogs and eggs, including the spot prices, price changes, and key weekly data such as inventory, production rate, and profit of hogs and eggs [19][20][21][22]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts It includes a series of charts related to the livestock (hogs and eggs), oils and oilseeds, and feed sectors, such as the closing prices of futures contracts, spot prices, inventory, production, and trading volume of various commodities [23][31][55]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It shows the historical volatility of various commodities such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [93]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It presents the warehouse receipt situations of various commodities, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [101].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The copper price is expected to be volatile, waiting for further news. The operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract is 95,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME copper 3M is 12,200 - 12,500 US dollars/ton [3]. - The aluminum price is expected to remain strong in the short - term. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,600 - 25,200 yuan/ton, and that of the LME aluminum 3M is 3,380 - 3,500 US dollars/ton [5]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly supported in the short - term [9]. - The lead price may further decline. Although the spot has short - term support, the high Shanghai - London ratio and the overall pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector may lead to a further decline [12]. - The zinc price has entered a downward trend, and there is a risk of further decline after wide - range consolidation [14]. - The tin price is expected to be volatile. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 320,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton, and that of the overseas LME tin is 41,000 - 50,000 US dollars/ton [16]. - The nickel price is expected to weaken in the short - term but has strong support at the bottom in the medium - term. It is recommended to operate within the range of 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel 3M [17]. - The lithium carbonate price may be affected by resource - end uncertainties. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 148,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton [20][21]. - For alumina, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see strategy. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton [24]. - The stainless steel market is expected to remain strong in the short - term, with the main contract operating in the range of 14,000 - 144,500 yuan/ton [27]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Trump's statement led to a rise in US stocks overnight, and the copper price rebounded. The LME copper 3M contract rose 1.54% to 12,382 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 96,760 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 175 to 362,425 tons, and the domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts continued to decrease by 10,000 to 221,000 tons. The spot discount in East China narrowed, and the spot premium in Guangdong was 95 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference was - 250 yuan/ton, inverting again [2]. - **Strategy View**: The tension in the Middle East has eased but remains uncertain. The copper ore supply is tight, the domestic inventory is being reduced, and the refined - scrap price difference is low, which is expected to support the copper price. The copper price is expected to be volatile [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rose and then fell. The LME aluminum 3M contract fell 0.26% to 3,436 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,915 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract's open interest increased by 5,000 to 586,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 4,000 to 417,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in three regions increased, while the aluminum rod inventory decreased. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 to 417,000 tons [4]. - **Strategy View**: Trump's claim of withdrawal from Iran has uncertainties. Overseas aluminum supply is expected to be tight, and domestic downstream start - up rates are increasing, which is conducive to inventory digestion. The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short - term [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated upwards. The main AD2605 contract rose 0.28% to 23,695 yuan/ton. The weighted contract's open interest decreased to 16,400 lots, and the trading volume was 11,500 lots. The warehouse receipts decreased by 1,600 to 33,600 tons. The price difference between the AL2605 and AD2605 contracts widened. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price was flat, and downstream demand turned to rigid procurement. The domestic three - region aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased by 500 to 31,000 tons [8]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strong, and the demand is expected to improve with the resumption of work. The price is expected to be strongly supported in the short - term [9]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose 0.01% to 16,498 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S rose 8 to 1,911.5 US dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,350 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 53,000 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 283,000 tons. The domestic lead ingot social inventory increased by 2,500 to 60,100 tons on March 30 [11]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of lead concentrate and lead scrap has increased. The inventory of lead ingot factories and social inventory has decreased. The spot has short - term support, but the high Shanghai - London ratio may lead to an increase in lead ingot imports and a decrease in battery exports. The lead price may further decline [12]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.21% to 23,500 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose 27.5 to 3,182 US dollars/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 23,430 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 94,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 115,300 tons. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 400 to 214,000 tons on March 30. Downstream enterprises replenished inventory after the zinc price decline [13]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased, and the import TC has continued to decline. The zinc price has stopped falling in the short - term, but the follow - up procurement may be limited. The zinc price has entered a downward trend and may further decline [14]. Tin - **Market Information**: On March 31, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 368,000 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. The SHFE inventory increased by 35 to 8,700 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 264 to 6,775 tons. The smelting start - up rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi have recovered, but the demand improvement is limited [15]. - **Strategy View**: The tin supply is still constrained by raw material shortages, and the demand is in a weak recovery. The tin price is expected to be volatile [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On March 31, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 134,780 yuan/ton, down 1.71%. The spot premiums of different brands were weak and stable. The cost of nickel ore and nickel iron prices were stable [17]. - **Strategy View**: The nickel price is expected to weaken in the short - term due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but has strong support at the bottom in the medium - term. It is recommended to operate within a range [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate fell 2.67%. The LC2605 contract closed at 157,200 yuan, down 8.40%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate premium was - 1,250 yuan [19]. - **Strategy View**: The lithium carbonate market is affected by resource - end uncertainties. The short - term supply shortage has eased slightly, and the lithium price may be affected. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 148,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton [20][21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On March 31, the alumina index fell 3.9% to 2,857 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 28,000 to 457,800 lots. The Shandong spot price was 2,750 yuan/ton, at a discount of 77 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas FOB price was 320 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was 37 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,700 to 419,800 tons [23]. - **Strategy View**: The Guinea government may tighten bauxite exports, and the alumina smelting supply is tightening in the short - term but remains in a long - term surplus. It is recommended to wait and see, and the operating range of the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 14,160 yuan/ton, down 1.46%. The open interest decreased by 4,084 to 187,400 lots. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets changed slightly. The raw material prices were relatively stable. The futures inventory increased by 4,838 to 45,736 tons, and the social inventory increased to 1,105,200 tons on March 27 [26]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless steel social inventory has increased slightly. The downstream demand is stable in some sectors, and the market is expected to be strong in the short - term. The main contract operating range is 14,000 - 144,500 yuan/ton [27].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Middle East situation has further intensified, and crude oil has strengthened. The overall energy and chemical sector has strong support. Although the energy and chemical sector has had a significant price increase previously and has digested some of the positive news, in the later stage, it should still be treated as relatively strong after a correction. Today, the aromatics market pulled back from its high intraday. Attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average on the daily K - line level. The current situation between the US and Iran and the trend of crude oil should be closely tracked, and the short - term risk is relatively high [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The 600,000 - ton Gulei plant was shut down for maintenance, and the load of individual plants was adjusted. The styrene output decreased by 3.12% to 360,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.32% to 71.79% [1] - Demand side: The operating rates of styrene downstream industries changed differently. The EPS operating rate decreased by 0.98% to 57.78%, the PS operating rate increased by 0.2% to 51.7%, the ABS operating rate decreased by 2.1% to 67.4%, the UPR operating rate increased by 3% to 38%, and the styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate decreased by 1.76% to 75.65% [1] - Inventory: The styrene factory inventory decreased by 7.70% to 191,900 tons, the East China port inventory decreased by 10.88% to 156,500 tons, and the South China port inventory decreased by 3.77% to 51,000 tons [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - Iranian military attacked a Kuwaiti oil tanker full of oil in the anchorage area of Dubai Port, causing damage to the hull and a fire, marking an escalation of shipping attacks in the Persian Gulf [2] - China's official manufacturing PMI in March was 50.4, with an expected value of 50.1 and a previous value of 49. In March, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. After running below 50% for two consecutive months, it returned to the expansion range, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing prosperity [2] - US media reported that Trump was willing to end the Iran war with the Strait of Hormuz closed [2] - Iran insisted that it had not negotiated with the US since the war broke out. The Iranian parliament approved the collection of tolls for the strait, which must be paid in the Iranian local currency [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The Middle East situation has further intensified, and crude oil has strengthened. The overall energy and chemical sector has strong support. After a previous significant price increase and partial digestion of positive news, it should still be treated as relatively strong after a correction. The aromatics market pulled back from its high intraday. Attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average on the daily K - line level. The current situation between the US and Iran and the trend of crude oil should be closely tracked, and the short - term risk is relatively high [3]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In March 2026, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from February, indicating a return to the expansion zone[2] - The production index accelerated by 1.8 percentage points to 51.4%, while the new orders index surged by 3.0 percentage points to 51.6%[3] - The rebound in manufacturing PMI is attributed to seasonal factors, with historical data showing an average rebound of 0.9 percentage points in the month following the Spring Festival[3] Group 2: Export and Economic Policy Impact - The new export orders index increased by 4.1 percentage points to 49.1%, contributing significantly to the rise in new orders[4] - The government's macroeconomic policy remains proactive, with infrastructure investment growth significantly accelerating, supporting the improvement in manufacturing sentiment[4] - Despite the positive trends, uncertainties from the Middle East and ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector may negatively impact domestic manufacturing operations[5] Group 3: Price Indices and Future Outlook - The ex-factory price index rose by 4.8 percentage points to 55.4%, while the main raw material purchase price index surged by 9.1 percentage points to 63.9%[5] - The manufacturing PMI is expected to decline to around 49.8% in April, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, following the typical seasonal pattern[7] - The ongoing Middle East situation and its impact on global economic conditions may further influence domestic manufacturing and export resilience[8]

Core Views - The A-share market is showing resilience with a clear structural differentiation, indicating that the index may experience fluctuations in the short term while consolidating support [2][10] - The external influences on the A-share market are diminishing, with the market's own recovery momentum taking precedence [3][12] - The market is characterized by a "hot and cold" sector performance, with strong movements in innovative pharmaceuticals and agriculture, while previously popular sectors like green electricity are retreating [12][10] Market Overview - On Monday, the three major indices opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing strength [5][10] - The trading volume remained around 2 trillion yuan, indicating a potential slowdown in the influx of new capital [12][10] - The overall sentiment in the market is moderate, with a general trend of more stocks rising than falling [6] Sector Analysis - Agricultural stocks, particularly in grain and farming, have seen an increase due to stabilizing domestic grain prices and rising overseas prices influenced by geopolitical tensions [7][10] - Aerospace and military stocks are performing well, driven by geopolitical conflicts and the emphasis on "self-control" in key technologies, which enhances the competitive landscape for domestic military enterprises [8][10] - The industrial and precious metals sectors are recovering, supported by ongoing economic growth policies and improving supply-demand dynamics [9][10] Investment Opportunities - Focus on companies that have been unjustly punished but can validate their growth logic through Q1 performance, as these firms are better positioned to withstand market volatility [3][12] - The long-term outlook for the A-share market remains positive, supported by China's diversified energy structure and stable growth policies [13][3]

Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock markets experienced significant volatility, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index dropping over 2.5% at one point, while South Korea's KOSPI index fell more than 4% before recovering slightly. As of the latest update, the Nikkei 225 was down 1.22% and the KOSPI was down 2.52% [1] - U.S. stock index futures showed a rebound, with the Nasdaq futures up 0.43%, Dow futures up 0.57%, and S&P 500 futures up 0.49% after earlier declines [1] Oil Market - International oil prices surged, with WTI crude oil rising over 3% to exceed $106 per barrel, following a previous day's increase that closed at $102.88 per barrel, marking the highest level since July 2022 [2] Geopolitical Tensions - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced a series of strikes against U.S. and Israeli targets, including a U.S. military command center in the UAE and a meeting location for U.S. Navy officials in Bahrain. The IRGC claimed to have used precision-guided missiles and drones for these attacks [3][4] - Iran's first vice president warned U.S. President Trump against deploying troops to the strategic Khark Island, which is crucial for Iran's oil exports, as 90% of the country's oil is shipped from there [5] Red Sea Shipping Concerns - Reports indicate that Iran is preparing the Houthi forces in Yemen to resume actions against shipping in the Red Sea, contingent on U.S. military actions against Iran. The Houthis are considering more aggressive actions, which could disrupt global energy markets [6][7] - The potential for Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the Mandeb Strait could further complicate the global oil supply chain, especially if combined with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to increased oil prices and economic pressures globally [7]

Group 1 - The article reports an attack on a U.S. university in Sulaymaniyah, Iraq, on March 31, as per Iranian sources [1] - Following airstrikes on Iranian universities by the U.S. and Israel, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has designated U.S. universities in the region and Israeli universities as "legitimate targets" for retaliation [1] - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a warning to the U.S. government, demanding an official condemnation of the bombings by a specified deadline, or else they would launch retaliatory actions against U.S. universities in the region [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Attention for trial long positions [1] - Silver: Wait - and - see [1] - Copper: Range - bound [1] - Zinc: Rebound [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Decline [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound under pressure [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation in the Middle East is complex and changeable, which has a significant impact on the prices of various metals. The short - term price trends of metals are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic conditions. Long - term trends are also influenced by factors like resource supply and demand for new energy [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Core view**: Gold is recommended for trial long positions, and silver is advised to wait - and - see. The short - term rebound of gold and silver may be due to the temporary relief of the liquidity crisis. The long - term bullish logic of precious metals remains unchanged, but the short - term is affected by factors such as the rise of the US dollar and US bond yields, and the outflow of ETF funds [1][2]. - **Market data**: SHFE gold rose 0.27% to 998.66, COMEX gold rose 3.30% to 4521; SHFE silver rose 0.10% to 17489, COMEX silver rose 2.41% to 70. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio decreased by 6.38% to 57.10, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio increased by 1.85% to 64.80 [2]. - **Basic logic**: The situation in the Middle East has escalated, and the global economic situation is in trouble. The core suppression factors for precious metals are the rise of the US dollar and US bond yields, the "sell - everything" de - risk operation, and the concern about the Fed maintaining high - interest rates. However, the four underlying logics of the long - term bull market in precious metals remain unchanged [2]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Gold pays attention to the support around 970 in the short term, and silver pays attention to the performance around 17000. Keep an eye on the situation of the Strait of Hormuz [2]. Copper - **Core view**: Copper is in a range - bound state, waiting for the Middle East situation to become clear. In the long - term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about copper [1][5]. - **Market data**: The closing price of SHFE copper futures decreased by 0.22% to 95490 yuan/ton, LME copper increased by 0.17% to 12141 US dollars/ton, and COMEX copper decreased by 0.16% to 546.15 US dollars/pound. The social inventory decreased by 4.03 million tons to 42.74 million tons [3]. - **Industrial logic**: The global copper mine supply is continuously tight, and the production of electrolytic copper is expected to increase. The safe passage of the Strait of Hormuz is uncertain, which may affect the smelting of African wet - process copper. After the sharp decline in copper prices, the downstream actively priced at low points, and the demand in the peak season recovered, providing support for the price [4]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, SHFE copper pays attention to the range of [94500, 97500] yuan/ton, and LME copper pays attention to the range of [12000, 12500] US dollars/ton [5]. Zinc - **Core view**: Zinc continues to rebound [1][8]. - **Market data**: The closing price of SHFE zinc futures increased by 0.49% to 23370 yuan/ton, LME zinc increased by 1.07% to 3106.5 US dollars/ton. The social inventory decreased by 0.57 million tons to 24.95 million tons [6]. - **Industrial logic**: The global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026, and the processing fees of imported zinc concentrates are lower than expected. Some small and medium - sized smelters have reduced production. The downstream start - up has recovered, and the consumption has marginally improved. The overseas zinc smelters have a production - reduction expectation, and the LME zinc inventory is at a low level in the same period of history, providing support for the zinc price [7]. - **Strategy recommendation**: SHFE zinc pays attention to the range of [22300, 23500] yuan/ton, and LME zinc pays attention to the range of [3050, 3150] US dollars/ton [8]. Aluminum - **Core view**: The aluminum price rebounds again [1][9]. - **Market data**: The closing price of LME aluminum increased by 0.92% to 3284.5 US dollars/ton, and the closing price of SHFE aluminum increased by 0.89% to 23935 yuan/ton. The SMM A00 aluminum spot average price increased by 1.28% to 23810 yuan/ton [9]. - **Industrial logic**: The short - term supply disturbance in the Middle East continues, and the new electrolytic aluminum projects in Indonesia are still in the production - climbing stage. The domestic downstream processing start - up rate has rebounded. The alumina inventory is still high, and the over - supply pattern is difficult to fundamentally reverse [11]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Temporarily wait - and - see for SHFE aluminum, pay attention to the change of aluminum ingot social inventory, and the main operation range is [23000 - 25000] [12]. Nickel - **Core view**: The nickel price rebounds under pressure [1][16]. - **Market data**: The closing price of LME nickel increased by 0.29% to 17215 US dollars/ton, and the closing price of SHFE nickel increased by 0.91% to 137100 yuan/ton. The SMM electrolytic nickel spot average price decreased by 0.25% to 139000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Industrial logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in 2026 is weakening. The reduction expectation of Indonesia's nickel ore production quota is weakened. The domestic pure nickel inventory continues to increase, and the stainless - steel inventory is still at a high level, and the downstream recovery needs further verification [15]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Temporarily wait - and - see for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to Indonesia's policy and the change of downstream stainless - steel inventory, and the main operation range of nickel is [125000 - 145000] [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core view**: The supply - side disturbance still exists, and it is recommended to take profits at high prices [17][20]. - **Market data**: The main contract LC2605 increased by 7.15% to 168440 yuan/ton. The battery - grade lithium carbonate 99.5% increased by 1.91% to 160000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Industrial logic**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the total inventory is slightly accumulating. The domestic mica - mine mining - license problem has not been solved, and the overseas lithium - mine policy is uncertain. The new - energy vehicle sales are poor, but the material link is still operating at full capacity, which may support the lithium - carbonate price [19]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Wait - and - see, and the range is [160000 - 173000] [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The concern about the escalation of the Middle - East situation still exists, causing gold and silver prices to rise and then fall. The expectation of peace talks between the US and Iran has significantly improved the sentiment, but there is still a possibility of the Middle - East situation escalating, so the gold price will fluctuate. The cease - fire negotiation between the US and Iran has reached a deadlock, and the risk appetite has decreased, leading to a decline in the silver price. The uncertainty of the US - Iran peace - talk expectation is high, but the sentiment has eased, and the silver price will also fluctuate [4][5]. - The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the rising expectation of interest - rate hikes have led to the gold price continuing to give back its gains in recent years. With the upcoming mid - term elections, there is still support from the macro - aspect [10][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The concern about the escalation of the Middle - East situation still exists, and the gold price rose and then fell. US and European stock markets closed down. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.81 basis points to 4.428%. The US dollar index rose 0.26% to 100.19. The COMEX gold futures rose 2.59% to $4489.70 per ounce. The basis was - 3.6, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. The gold futures warehouse receipts decreased by 99 kilograms to 106,644 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the long position of the main force decreased [4]. - **Silver**: The concern about the escalation of the Middle - East situation still exists, and the silver price rose and then fell. US and European stock markets closed down. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.81 basis points to 4.428%. The US dollar index rose 0.26% to 100.19. The COMEX silver futures rose 2.70% to $69.77 per ounce. The basis was - 14, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,500 kilograms to 371,799 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the long position of the main force decreased [5][6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The expectation of peace talks between the US and Iran has significantly improved the sentiment, but the Middle - East situation may still escalate, and the gold price will fluctuate. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to 1.6 yuan per gram [4]. - **Silver**: The cease - fire negotiation between the US and Iran has reached a deadlock, and the risk appetite has decreased, leading to a decline in the silver price. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to about 2,000 yuan per kilogram. The uncertainty of the US - Iran peace - talk expectation is high, but the sentiment has eased, and the silver price will fluctuate [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - G7 meeting to discuss the release of strategic oil reserves (time to be determined); - The Bank of Japan to release the summary of opinions of the deliberation members at the March monetary policy meeting at 07:50; - Switzerland's March KOF economic leading indicator at 15:00; - UK's February central bank mortgage approvals at 16:30; - Eurozone's March economic sentiment index and the final value of the March consumer confidence index at 17:00; - Germany's March CPI preliminary value at 20:00; - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech and the US March Dallas Fed business activity index at 22:30; - FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams to give a speech at 04:00 the next day [16]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the rising expectation of interest - rate hikes have led to the gold price continuing to give back its gains in recent years. With the upcoming mid - term elections, there is still support from the macro - aspect [10]. - **Silver**: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the rising expectation of interest - rate hikes have led to the gold price (should be silver price here) continuing to give back its gains in recent years. With the upcoming mid - term elections, there is still support from the macro - aspect. The photovoltaic and technology sectors support the silver price, and the low spot inventory and hot supply - shortage game are also positive factors [13][15]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 Shanghai gold holders decreased by 1,974 to 147,144, a decrease of 1.32%. The short position increased by 2,307 to 44,494, an increase of 5.47%. The net position decreased by 4,281 to 102,650, a decrease of 4.00% [41]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 Shanghai silver holders increased by 238 to 240,033, an increase of 0.10%. The short position increased by 1,561 to 214,706, an increase of 0.73%. The net position decreased by 1,323 to 25,327, a decrease of 4.96% [44]. - **ETF**: The SPDR gold ETF position remained flat, and the silver ETF position decreased slightly [46][48]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, and Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease [50][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the black sector rose first and then fell, with raw materials outperforming finished products, especially coking coal, whose price increased significantly. The Iran-US negotiation news led to a decline in crude oil prices and a cooling atmosphere in the futures market. The focus of the macro - policy remains on the Middle East situation, and the "negotiation" between the US and Iran is still uncertain, which will continue to affect the global market in the short term. In terms of the industrial pattern, steel demand is continuously recovering, and steel inventories continued to decline last week. On the raw material side, coking coal production has returned to a normal - to - high level since last year, and iron ore shipments are at a seasonal low [3]. - Steel, coking coal, coke, and iron ore are all expected to move in a volatile manner. For steel, the futures price of rebar is below the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces, with a relatively low static valuation. The demand is still recovering, and the inventory is declining, but the de - stocking speed is not fast. For coking coal, domestic production continues to rise, and the total inventory slightly accumulates, with downstream inventory increasing and upstream mines de - stocking. For coke, production slightly increased last week, and the total inventory increased, with independent coking plants de - stocking and steel mills and ports increasing inventory. For iron ore, with the resumption of steel mills' production, hot metal output continued to increase last week, but it is still lower than the same period last year and has room for further growth. Iron ore shipments and arrivals are at a seasonal low, and the inventories of steel mills and ports both decreased last week [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison: Rise and Fall - The black sector rose first and then fell last week, with raw materials performing better than finished products, and coking coal prices rising significantly [3][5] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison: Lithium Carbonate Soars, Crude Oil Drops - In the futures market, lithium carbonate had a large increase, while crude oil prices dropped due to the news of the Iran - US negotiation [3][7] 03 Spot Price: Coking Coal Rises Sharply, Iron Ore and Scrap Steel Fall - The spot price of coking coal increased significantly, while iron ore and scrap steel prices decreased [9] 04 Profit and Valuation: Poor Steel Mill Profits, Low Rebar Futures Valuation - Steel mills' profitability is poor, and the futures price of rebar is below the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces, with a relatively low static valuation [4][11] 05 Steel Supply and Demand: Demand Continues to Recover, Inventory Continues to Decline - Steel demand is continuing to recover, and steel inventories are continuously declining. However, the current de - stocking speed is not fast, and the quality of demand needs further attention [4][13] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand: Hot Metal Output Increases, Steel Mill and Port Inventories Decrease - With the resumption of steel mills' production, hot metal output continued to increase last week, but it is still lower than the same period last year and has room for further growth. Recent iron ore shipments and arrivals are at a seasonal low, and the inventories of steel mills and ports both decreased last week [4][22] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand: Raw Coal Production Increases, Inventory Transfers to Downstream - Domestic coking coal production continues to rise and is at a normal - to - high level since last year. The total coking coal inventory slightly accumulates, with downstream inventory increasing and upstream mines de - stocking [4][25] 08 Coke Supply and Demand: Production Recovers from a Low Level, Port Inventory Increases Significantly - Coke production slightly increased last week, and the total inventory increased, with independent coking plants de - stocking and steel mills and ports increasing inventory [4][27] 09 Variety Price Difference: Steel Mill Profits Decline, Coke/Coking Coal Ratio Drops - Steel mill profits are declining, and the coke/coking coal ratio is decreasing [29] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - Iran put forward six conditions for a cease - fire, including ensuring no more war, closing US military bases in the Middle East, and having the aggressor pay compensation to Iran. The "Shanghai Seven" real - estate policy has been in effect for one month, and the cumulative net signing of second - hand houses in Shanghai from March 1 to March 24 increased by 3% year - on - year. The IEA warned that it may take six months to restore oil and gas supply in the Persian Gulf, and the world is facing the most serious energy crisis in history. Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted upwards on March 23. Goldman Sachs said that the probability of the US economy falling into a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 30%. The US government put forward a 15 - condition plan to end the conflict with Iran through Pakistan, and the US is considering a one - month cease - fire. US President Trump will visit China in mid - May. Zimbabwe's lithium export ban has continued for nearly a month, and the impact may exceed market expectations. Russia will temporarily stop ammonium nitrate exports for one month. Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 pm on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time [35]