2025年11月19日 集运日报 (航运研究/组) SCFIS持续下行，压制盘面持续下探，符合日报预期，可考虑部分止盈，关注12月运价支撑逻辑。 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1357.67点, 较上期下跌9.8% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1238.42 点, 较上期下跌6.9% 11月14日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1451.38点,较上期下跌43.72点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1417USD/TEU,较上期上涨7.1% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1823USD/FEU,较上期上下跌17.59% 11月14日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 999.69点, 较上期下跌5.12% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 979.34点, 较上期上涨7.42% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1052.43点, 较上期下跌21.99% 11月14日 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1094.03点,较上期上涨3.4% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (欧洲航线) 1403.6 ...

Core Points - Russian President Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed the Middle East situation, focusing on the ceasefire agreement in Gaza and the exchange of hostages [1] - The leaders also addressed the current status of Iran's nuclear program and efforts to promote stability in Syria [1] - Putin reiterated Russia's consistent position on resolving the Palestinian issue based on international law during their previous conversation on October 6 [1] Summary by Categories Ceasefire and Hostage Exchange - The conversation included discussions on the implementation of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza and the progress on the exchange of detained individuals [1] Iran's Nuclear Program - The leaders discussed the current status of Iran's nuclear program, indicating ongoing geopolitical concerns in the region [1] Syrian Stability - Efforts to further promote stability in Syria were also a topic of discussion, highlighting Russia's involvement in the region [1] Historical Context - The last conversation between Putin and Netanyahu occurred on October 6, where they discussed the Middle East situation in the context of the U.S. proposed "20-point plan" [1] - Putin emphasized Russia's longstanding friendly relations with Syria during a meeting with Syrian leadership on October 15 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The conversation between Russian President Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu focused on the developments in the Middle East, including the situation in Gaza, Iran's nuclear program, and the situation in Syria [1]. Group 1: Middle East Situation - Putin and Netanyahu engaged in extensive discussions regarding the situation in Gaza, particularly in the context of implementing ceasefire agreements and the exchange of detained individuals [1]. - The dialogue included a focus on the evolving circumstances in Gaza amid ongoing conflicts and humanitarian concerns [1]. Group 2: Iran's Nuclear Program - The discussions also touched upon Iran's nuclear program, indicating ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns regarding nuclear proliferation in the region [1]. Group 3: Syrian Situation - The situation in Syria was another key topic of discussion, reflecting the complexities of regional security and the impact of various conflicts on broader Middle Eastern stability [1].

（文章来源：央视新闻客户端） 当地时间11月15日，克里姆林宫通报称，当天，俄罗斯总统普京与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡通电话，双方 就中东局势进行深入交流，包括加沙地带局势发展、伊朗核计划、叙利亚局势等议题。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot index's sharp rise drives the far - month contracts. Risk - preferring investors are advised to pre - layout the 02 contract and focus on the freight rate support logic in December [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1504.80 points, up 24.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1329.71 points, up 4.9% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1053.62 points, down 4.24% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 911.73 points, down 5.58% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1349.1 points, down 7.14% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) published price was 1495.10 points, down 3.6 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1323 USD/TEU, down 1.6% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 2212 USD/FEU, down 16.4% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1058.17 points, up 3.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1366.85 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 814.14 points, up 5.4% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - The initial value of the US S&P Global services PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the initial value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the initial value of the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [3]. - The initial value of the euro - zone manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the initial value of the services PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the initial value of the composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The euro - zone Sentix investor confidence index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [2]. Contract Information - On November 11, the main contract 2512 closed at 1746.1, down 1.87%, with a trading volume of 32,200 lots and an open interest of 25,200 lots, a decrease of 1475 lots from the previous day [3]. - The trading limits of contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The main contract retraces while the far - month contracts are strong. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try long positions lightly in the 1550 - 1600 range of the EC2602 contract, focus on the spot trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS shows a continuous upward trend, with the freight rate range seasonally shifting upwards again. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or observe [2][3]. - The game between long and short positions is intensifying, and attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Content Freight Rate Index - On November 3, SCFIS (European route) was 1504.80 points, up 24.5% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1329.71 points, up 4.9% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, NCFI (composite index) was 1053.62 points, down 4.24% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 911.73 points, down 5.58% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 1349.1 points, down 7.14% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, SCFI published price was 1495.10 points, down 3.6 points from the previous period; SCFI European line price was 1323 USD/TEU, down 1.6% from the previous period; SCFI US West route was 2212 USD/FEU, down 16.4% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, CCFI (composite index) was 1058.17 points, up 3.6% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1366.85 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 814.14 points, up 5.4% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - In the eurozone in October, the manufacturing PMI initial value was 45.9, the service PMI initial value was 51.2, and the composite PMI initial value was 49.7 [2]. - In the US in October, the S&P Global service PMI initial value was 55.2, the manufacturing PMI initial value was 52.2, and the composite PMI initial value was 54.8 [3]. Market Conditions of Contracts - On November 10, the main contract 2512 closed at 1778.2, down 1.84%, with a trading volume of 20,400 lots and an open interest of 26,700 lots, an increase of 793 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to lightly test long in the 1550 - 1600 range of the EC2602 contract, pay attention to the spot trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation instability, it is recommended to temporarily observe or lightly attempt [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Core Points - Iran is prepared to respond to any potential attacks from Israel, indicating a high state of alert across various levels of its military and defense systems [1][3] - Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif warned that Israel would face severe consequences if it initiates further military actions against Iran, emphasizing the lessons learned from recent conflicts [3] - Iran's stance is that Israel's attempts to expand regional conflict through attacks on Iranian oil facilities will be met with strong resistance [3] Summary by Sections - **Iran's Preparedness**: Iran has reached the highest level of readiness for any hostile actions from Israel, anticipating potential future conflicts [3] - **Consequences for Israel**: Zarif stated that Israel will again suffer defeat in any future war, highlighting Iran's confidence in its military capabilities [3] - **Regional Dynamics**: Iran's officials have criticized Israel's military actions supported by the U.S., asserting that Israel's ambitions for regional dominance are unrealistic and unattainable [3]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core Viewpoints - The potential meeting between Chinese and US leaders has led to a positive macro sentiment, driving up the market, which aligns with the daily report's rebound expectation. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [1]. - In the short - term, the main contract is weak while the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market trend, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. In the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend. For the arbitrage strategy, due to the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see or participate lightly [1]. Content Summary by Related Information Freight Index - On October 27, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1312.71 points, up 15.1% from the previous period, and the SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.32 points, up 28.2% from the previous period. On October 24, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 977.21 points, up 2.17% from the previous period, the NCFI (European route) was 822.3 points, up 2.38% from the previous period, and the NCFI (US West route) was 1293.75 points, up 3.13% from the previous period [1]. - On October 24, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI announced price was 1403.46 points, up 93.14 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 1246 USD/TEU, up 8.8% from the previous period, and the SCFI US West route was 2153 USD/FEU, up 11.2% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 992.74 points, up 2.0% from the previous period, the CCFI (European route) was 1293.12 points, up 2.0% from the previous period, and the CCFI (US West route) was 736.23 points, up 1.5% from the previous period [1]. PMI Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The eurozone's September composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The eurozone's September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [1]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities [1]. - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53), the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5), and the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [1]. Market and Contract Information - On October 29, the main contract 2512 closed at 1871.0, with a涨幅 of 5.08%, a trading volume of 34,500 lots, and an open interest of 31,900 lots, an increase of 3006 lots from the previous day [1]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [1]. Other Information - The Israel Defense Forces announced on October 29 that they had started to re - implement the Gaza cease - fire agreement after a series of strikes on "terrorist targets" and "terrorists". China's President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and issues of common concern [2].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The coal mine operating rate has increased, with the Erdos coal mine operating rate at 71% and the Yulin area at 44% as of October 23. Coal production has recovered, and the daily coal output in Erdos and Yulin is around 4 million tons. The pithead price has been rising due to strong demand [4]. - On the supply side, the raw coal price is firm, the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest is strong, the profit of coal - to - methanol is around 660 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains stable at a high level, resulting in a continuous loose domestic supply [4]. - At the import end, the US dollar price has slightly declined, and imports remain in a positive spread situation. Iranian plants are mostly operating normally, the non - Iranian operating rate has slightly declined, and the overseas operating rate is at a high level. The European and American markets have slightly declined, the China - Europe price difference is oscillating, and the Southeast Asian re - export window is closed. Iran has loaded 750,000 tons in October. Affected by sanctions, Iranian tenders have offered significant discounts, and there is an abundance of non - Iranian supplies [4]. - In terms of demand, the traditional downstream has entered the off - season with a decline in the operating rate, while the operating rate of MTO plants has increased. Some MTO plants are operating stably, while others are operating at less than full capacity [4]. - Regarding inventory, the import arrival has slightly decreased, the port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated within a narrow range [4]. - Overall, the international plant operating rate has increased, some plants in Iran have restarted, and the daily output has increased to around 35,000 tons. Imports are gradually resuming, the port spot liquidity is sufficient, and the overall trading is light. The basis of spot prices is stable. The downstream demand is stable, the arrival volume is stable, the MTO operating rate has slightly declined, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. In the short term, methanol is mainly oscillating weakly under the background of high inventory [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading strategies: For single - side trading, short at high prices without chasing short positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; in the over - the - counter market, sell call options [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of October 23, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 75.85%, a decrease of 0.70 percentage points from last week but an increase of 1.29 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 84.89%, a decrease of 1.07 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 1.70 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol plants was 67.80%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: In the period from October 18 - 24, 2025, the international (ex - China) methanol production was 1,069,909 tons, a decrease of 25,950 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 73.34%. Some Iranian plants had different operating conditions, and only the M5 large - scale plant in South American MHTL was in operation [5]. - **Supply - Import**: As of 14:00 on October 22, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol at ports was 352,000 tons, including 316,300 tons of foreign vessels (251,800 tons of visible and 64,500 tons of non - visible, with 188,800 tons of visible in Jiangsu) and 35,700 tons of domestic vessels (6,500 tons in Jiangsu and 29,200 tons in Guangdong) [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of October 23, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 87.25%, a decrease of 0.83 percentage points from last week. The overall olefin industry operating rate decreased this week [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 5.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.97%. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid was 74.4%. The formaldehyde operating rate was 38.87%. The overall capacity utilization rate of traditional downstream industries decreased compared with last week [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 51,300 tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month decrease of 18.57% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The inventory of production enterprises was 360,400 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 215,700 tons, a decrease of 13,300 tons from the previous period [5]. - **Inventory - Ports**: As of October 22, 2025, the total methanol port inventory was 1,512,200 tons, an increase of 20,800 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 30,000 tons, while that in South China decreased by 9,200 tons [5]. - **Valuation**: In terms of profit, the chemical coal in the northwest region rebounded, and the methanol price declined. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was around 460 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi, it was 480 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis was stable [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang was 2,260 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan), and the price in the north line was 2,000 yuan/ton (- 60 yuan) [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment of price support is strong, and the optimistic sentiment persists. The market continues to rise slightly. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - The short - term strategy suggests that risk - preferring investors try to build positions below 1500 for the EC2512 contract, pay attention to the subsequent market trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - loss [3]. - For the arbitrage strategy, in the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or try with a light position [3]. - For the long - term strategy, it is recommended to take profit when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content SCFIS and NCFI Freight Rate Index - On October 20, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI, comprehensive index) was 956.45 points, up 16.79% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS, European route) was 1140.38 points, up 10.5%; the NCFI (European route) was 803.21 points, up 14.96%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 863.46 points, up 0.1%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1254.46 points, up 48.56% [4]. - On October 17, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1310.32 points, up 149.90 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI, comprehensive index) was 973.11 points, down 4.1%; the SCFI European route price was 1145 USD/TEU, up 7.2%; the CCFI (European route) was 1267.91 points, down 1.5%; the SCFI US West route was 1936 USD/FEU, up 31.9%; the CCFI (US West route) was 725.47 points, down 6.7% [4]. Economic Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The eurozone's September composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The eurozone's September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [4]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [4]. - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [4]. Contract Information - On October 22, the main contract 2512 closed at 1788.3, up 2.25%, with a trading volume of 28,600 lots and an open interest of 29,000 lots, an increase of 574 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical Events - On the evening of October 21, Iraqi Prime Minister Sudani had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, discussing issues such as Iraq - US relations, security and military cooperation, and the upcoming November national parliamentary elections in Iraq [4]. - On October 21, Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan and National Intelligence Agency Director Kallen met with the chairman of the negotiation committee of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and members of the organization's Politburo in Doha, Qatar, exchanging views on the current situation in Gaza and the implementation of the first - stage cease - fire agreement on the ground [4].