We argue that the ETF's greater concentration in mega-caps is currently an advantage over more diversified indices. Furthermore, we do not “buy” the idea of a bubble, and with favorable macroeconomic conditions, we recommend buying IWY with a six-monthAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not rece ...

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 is currently trading at a bubble-like valuation, with the Shiller PE ratio at 40 [1] Group 1 - The Shiller PE ratio is a key indicator suggesting overvaluation in the S&P 500 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "The American Bubble," highlighting its prevalence in recent discussions about the stock market and economic conditions [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding macroeconomic factors, stock selection, and real-time positioning in identifying investment opportunities [1]. - It mentions the focus on earnings, technological disruption, policy shifts, and capital flows as critical elements for recognizing mispriced opportunities in the market [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The article outlines a strategy that combines top-down macro analysis with bottom-up stock selection to manage multi-asset strategies and equity portfolios [1]. - It indicates that the author shares high-conviction ideas and contrarian views on both growth and value stocks, aiming to provide deep insights into market dynamics [1].

Market Events & Financial Crisis - The market peaked in early 2000 and dropped approximately 30% within months [1] - Major financial institutions faced collapse, triggered by housing market sell-offs that spread to unrelated sectors [3] - The Fed implemented quantitative easing (QE) three times, restarting after less than a decade due to the COVID-19 pandemic [4] - COVID-19 pandemic caused market plunges of 20% to 30% in about 5 and a half weeks [5] - Headline inflation rates peaked at 9%, the highest in the modern era [6] Market Dynamics & Investment Trends - Individual investors drive the majority of activity in U S public equity markets by 2025, impacting prices and valuations [7] - Discussions of bubbles are resurfacing, with concerns about an AI bubble similar to the tech bubble of 2000 [8] - The US spent approximately $8 trillion on wars on terrorism, leading to budget deficits [9] - Since 2020, large budget deficits and wealth gaps have been monetized, leading to leveraging up of assets in private equity and venture capital markets [15][14] - Geopolitical conflicts necessitate a shift from consumer-based to directed economies, emphasizing infrastructure and energy development [18] Global Economic Factors - Developed countries, including Europe, the United States, and China, face declining populations, while the Global South experiences growing populations and migration linked to climate change [22] - A successful country requires education, productivity, financial resources, and avoidance of internal and international conflicts [26]

Company Overview - CoreWeave is a company that provides a cluster of supercomputers for rent, allowing users to access their processing power, particularly in the AI sector [2] - The company has experienced significant volatility, with a notable increase of approximately 108% since it began trading, outperforming the XLK Technology ETF and the S&P 500 [3] Market Performance - Despite a recent decline of 55% from its all-time highs, CoreWeave has managed to hold onto a critical support level, indicating potential resilience [5][6] - The company is currently facing a high-risk designation from analysts, with a renewed buy rating and a price target set at 135, although this represents a cut from previous estimates [4] Technical Analysis - Key resistance levels to watch include recent highs at 9066 and a gap near 98, with the 20-day simple moving average crossed above, indicating potential upward momentum [7] - Volume profile studies reveal significant trading concentration areas at 74, 90, 98, and around 105, which could influence future price movements [8] Options Market Activity - The options market for CoreWeave has seen substantial activity, with around 640,000 options traded, of which 62% were calls, indicating bullish sentiment [10] - Notably, a significant trade involved a long put option, suggesting some bearish sentiment, with a break-even point at approximately 4810, indicating a potential downside of 42% [12]

Market Sentiment - The CNN Money Fear and Greed index declined to a reading of 43.7, entering the "Fear" zone from a previous reading of 46.9, indicating a shift in market sentiment [6] - U.S. stocks experienced a positive session, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining over 300 points, driven by a cooler-than-expected inflation report and strong earnings outlook from Micron Technology [1] Company Performance - Micron Technology's stock surged by 10% after exceeding earnings estimates and providing a positive outlook, alleviating concerns regarding the AI bubble [2] - Accenture Plc also reported better-than-expected first-quarter 2026 results, contributing to the overall positive market sentiment [2] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.7% year-over-year in November 2025, down from 3% previously and below the expected 3.1%, while core inflation fell to 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021 [2] - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index dropped by 8.5 points to -10.2 in December, missing market expectations [3] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 13,000 to 224,000 for the week ending December 13 [3] Sector Performance - Most sectors in the S&P 500 closed positively, with information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary stocks showing the largest gains, while consumer staples and energy sectors closed lower [4] - The Dow Jones increased by approximately 66 points to 47,951.85, the S&P 500 rose by 0.79% to 6,774.76, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped by 1.38% to 23,006.36 during the session [4] Upcoming Earnings - Investors are anticipating earnings results from Conagra Brands Inc., Paychex Inc., and Carnival Corp. [5]

The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed a decline in the overall market sentiment, while the index moved to the “Fear” zone on Thursday.U.S. stocks settled higher on Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining more than 300 points during the session as risk appetite snapped back after a cooler-than-expected inflation report revived hopes for rate cuts and a blowout earnings outlook from Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) eased AI bubble fears.Micron Technology rocketed 10% on Thursday after beating estima ...

Central Bank Insights - Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, ECB, and Bank of England, are experiencing significant internal disagreements regarding monetary policy due to a lack of visibility on economic conditions [3][10]. - The Bank of England has shown a notable split in decision-making, while the ECB appears more optimistic about growth and the resilience of the European economy [4][5]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. jobs report indicates a mixed picture, with the U6 underemployment rate at 8.7%, the highest since August 2021, suggesting challenges in the labor market [7]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is influenced heavily by shelter costs, raising questions about its reliability due to missing data from previous months [8][9]. Market Dynamics - There is a notable rebound in technology stocks, particularly driven by Micron, despite recent pullbacks and concerns about valuations in the AI sector [12][13]. - Companies are facing escalating expenditures and are increasingly borrowing, which may indicate signs of a bubble in the market, although it is suggested that the bubble may not burst until later than 2026 [14][16]. Investment Sentiment - Current market conditions reflect a lack of visibility and trust among investors, with concerns about potential profit-taking and rotation into different market segments [13][14]. - The overall investment landscape is still under control, with leverage not posing significant danger at this stage of the market evolution [16].

Group 1 - The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) stocks has significantly inflated the value of the S&P 500, leading to concerns about the index's traditional safety due to its heavy tech weighting [1] - Alternative investment options include exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that offer diversification while minimizing tech exposure, such as the Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund ETF, Invesco S&P 500 Revenue ETF, and State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF [2] Group 2 - The Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund ETF offers a high dividend yield of 2.4%, which is more than double the S&P 500 average of 1.1%, and holds 566 stocks for excellent diversification [4][5] - The Invesco S&P 500 Revenue ETF tracks the S&P 500 based on revenue rather than market cap, resulting in a portfolio with limited tech exposure, where healthcare is the largest sector at 21% [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Investor apprehension surrounding Oracle has led to a significant decline in its stock price, which has fallen nearly 50% from its all-time high on September 10, and is now affecting its projects [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Impact - Oracle's shares fell 5.4% on Wednesday, contributing to month-to-date losses exceeding 11% [2] - The decline in Oracle's stock has negatively impacted related companies, including Broadcom, Nvidia, and Advanced Micro Devices [2] - Major U.S. indexes also experienced declines, with the S&P 500 retreating 1.16%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 0.47%, and the Nasdaq Composite losing 1.81% [3] Group 2: Project Concerns and Investor Sentiment - Blue Owl Capital withdrew from Oracle's $10 billion data center project due to unfavorable debt terms, raising concerns about Oracle's high level of debt [1] - There are worries that Oracle may delay the completion of data centers for OpenAI, although the cloud company has denied these reports [2] - Analysts at Bank of America suggest that despite recent pullbacks in AI stocks, the AI trade may still have potential until 2026, while cautioning that rising shares do not preclude the formation of a bubble [3][4]