Joining us here at Post9 today, Steve Sosnik, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, has a 6,500 year-end target for the S&P in 2026. That's a curious number, Steve. Good to have you. >> Good to see you.>> What What would lead us to that. >> A lot of a confluence of different factors. First of all, I'm an inherent contrarian, so let me start with that.And I I I I believe I'm kind of an outlier and I'm in being a little lower, but history, I think, is it points to caution. number one, secondyear presidenti ...

Market Overview - Indian equities opened largely unchanged, with the Sensex rising 51 points (0.06%) to 84,731 and the Nifty 50 slipping 14 points (0.05%) to 25,874, as investors weighed mixed signals from global markets and inconclusive U.S. jobs data [15] - The broader market showed little conviction, with mid-cap and small-cap indices trading largely flat [15] Stock Performance - Among Sensex constituents, shares of State Bank of India, Bajaj Finance, and Tata Consultancy Services led the advance, rising between 1% and 1.5% [15] - Akzo Nobel India slid about 15% after reports indicated that Imperial Chemical Industries sold roughly 48.8 lakh shares in the company through a block deal [15] - RailTel Corporation of India climbed 2% on reports of potential partnership talks with Elon Musk-owned Starlink in India [15] Foreign Institutional Investment - Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth nearly Rs 2,382 crore on December 16, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1,077 crore [10] Currency and Commodities - The Indian rupee weakened in early trade, falling 12 paise to 91.05 against the U.S. dollar, a day after hitting a record low of 91.0750 [13] - U.S. crude futures rose 1.3% to $55.97 a barrel, while Brent crude gained 1.15% to $59.60, recovering some losses amid geopolitical risks and concerns over global demand [12][11] Economic Insights - The recent sharp fall in the rupee and crude oil prices has attracted investor attention, with a decline in crude due to poor demand from China and the U.S. being viewed positively for India's macroeconomic conditions [5] - Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, noted that sustained rupee depreciation is accelerating FII outflows, negatively impacting the market [6] - There is a potential for FIIs to become buyers in India by 2026, especially if a U.S.-India trade deal occurs, which could lead to rupee strengthening in H1 2026 [7]

Market Overview - US stock futures showed a slight increase, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures up 0.1%, S&P 500 futures up 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures also up 0.2% as investors analyze the implications of recent jobs data on Federal Reserve policy and the US economy [1] - Oil prices surged over 2% following President Trump's order for a blockade of sanctioned tankers off Venezuela, with West Texas Intermediate futures trading above $56 per barrel and Brent futures exceeding $60 [2][11] Employment Data Insights - Wall Street is seeking clarity from the November jobs report, which revealed a higher-than-expected number of jobs added alongside the highest unemployment rate since 2021 [3] - Analysts caution that the jobs data may have a significant margin of error due to a prolonged government shutdown affecting data collection, leaving the odds of a January rate cut at 25% [4] Federal Reserve Commentary - Key Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed's John Williams and Fed governor Chris Waller, are expected to provide insights on future monetary policy [5] - The market is anticipating the upcoming consumer inflation data, which is crucial for the Fed's rate decision next month [6] Technology Sector Focus - Investor interest in tech stocks remains strong, particularly with Micron Technology's quarterly results expected, as concerns about the AI trade continue to influence the sector [7] - Tesla's stock has positively impacted the tech sector, achieving its first record close in about a year due to growing enthusiasm over its robotaxi ambitions [8] Housing Market Update - Homebuilder Lennar's stock fell over 3% after reporting a decline in fourth-quarter profit, reflecting ongoing challenges in the housing market due to affordability issues [8]

And speaking of risks, here comes a new one for the AI trade from Washington. Dearraosa has more in today's tech check. Hi Deerra.So Kelly, this is why it's a risk. It's because political pressure can raise costs very quickly. States, they can require more upfront.They can lock in longer power contracts, even create special rate classes that shift more of the cost back to big tech. And that pressure is building. Three Democratic senators, Elizabeth Warren, Chris Van Holland, and Richard Blumenthal.They sent ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience increased dispersion among MAG7 stocks in 2026, with a shift in focus from AI infrastructure providers to adopters of AI technology [1]. Market Performance - Over the past 6 months, only 17% of S&P constituents outperformed the index, but this figure rose to 61% in the last month, indicating improved market breadth [2]. - Small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, have shown the best improvement in breadth compared to both 50-day and 200-day moving averages [3]. Economic Indicators - Recent flash PMI data has been disappointing, suggesting potential challenges for the market narrative [4]. - The economy is showing signs of slowing, which is expected to continue into 2026, although earnings have not yet weakened significantly in line with macroeconomic data [5]. Earnings and Valuation - Since August, there has been a halt in aggressive multiple expansion, with earnings growth continuing to accelerate [6]. - The Russell 2000 index has seen a significant increase in unprofitable stocks, which are up 62% since April 8, compared to a 29% increase in profitable stocks [8]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended to avoid unprofitable lower-quality segments within small caps and to focus on higher-quality profitable segments [9].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of income-focused investing, particularly in the context of market volatility and the "AI trade" showing signs of instability [2] - iREIT+HOYA Capital provides investment research on various income-producing asset classes, including REITs, ETFs, closed-end funds, preferreds, and dividend champions, targeting dividend yields up to 10% [2] - The service aims to help investors achieve dependable monthly income, portfolio diversification, and inflation hedging [2] Group 2 - The S&P 500 has traditionally been viewed as a means for broad market diversification, but current market conditions may require a shift towards more defensive stock options [2] - The investment group focuses on high-yield, dividend growth investment ideas, catering to investors with a medium- to long-term horizon [2]

Before when we were bringing you on uh we were talking to you about some of that delayed data that's coming up later today. The October November jobs report. The combination of that we're looking at potentially the estimate at least 50,000 jobs added unemployment ticking up to 4 and a.5% highest level since October of 2021.I want to ask you does that matter to the markets. Does it matter to the Fed when we know there's going to be a lot of twist and turns before that next Fed meeting. Well, there'll definit ...

Morning. Christina Parts Neville joins us with how Wall Street sees the AI trade right now and Sim Modi has a closer look at how some of these widening bond yields for Oracle and some other hyperscalers might be a warning sign for a bubble. Let's begin with KP. Morning KP. >> Good morning Carl. Well, the Magnificent 7's grip on the market is loosening through November. The mega cap tech cohort accounted for roughly 43% of the S&P 500 gains, but that influence is fading. Investors are questioning the sustain ...

So Steve and I were just both talking about it, the potential market moving reports we're getting. The jobs one seems to be the one with the most potential at least coming up on Tuesday. Uh how are you viewing it. What do you see it. What do you see it potentially impacting.>> Well, we're finally getting the government data back and that's most important for just guidance. I we're talking about the Fed and oh by the way, there's a 100% chance that it's going to be a Kevin for the Fed chairmanship moving for ...

Retail Investor Sentiment - Retail investors currently account for about one-third of the trading volume in the MAG7 stocks, a decrease from previous years, indicating a potential shift in sentiment and confidence in the AI trade [1] - Despite a recent 1% sell-off, the market remains only 1-2% off all-time highs, suggesting that the situation is not yet critical [2] Market Dynamics - Recent weeks have shown increased nervousness in the markets regarding the MAG7 group, with investors taking profits as the year comes to a close [3] - There is a notable shift of funds into more traditional sectors such as industrials and financials, which may indicate a more cautious approach from retail traders [4][5] Retail vs. Institutional Trading - Retail traders are seen as the primary drivers of market movements, often leading the way for institutional investors who tend to follow later [11][12] - Retail traders prioritize liquidity, gravitating towards the most liquid assets to ensure fair pricing and maximize returns [10] Future Market Outlook - The market may experience a slight decline after the current week, which is characterized by significant options expirations (triple witching), but there is potential for renewed interest early next year [13][14] - The options market plays a crucial role in retail trading behavior, with a significant portion of retail trading activity now focused on options rather than traditional stocks [16] Leveraged ETFs - Leveraged ETFs are primarily used for short-term trading strategies and are not suitable for long-term investments due to inherent negative drag from their structure [20][22] - Retail traders are increasingly engaging with leveraged ETFs, which operate similarly to futures, indicating a trend towards short-term plays in the market [19]