It was a conj job. Affordability, they call it, was a conjob by the by the Democrats. The Democrats are good at a few things.Cheating on elections and conning people with facts that aren't true. They said, "Oh, I don't want to talk about affordability." The reason I don't want to talk about affordability is because everybody knows that it's far less expensive under Trump than it was under Sleepy Joe Biden. And the prices are way down.As President Trump on Friday, calling the Democratic Party's focus on affo ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of weakening consumer sentiment on retail stocks, highlighting the importance of consumer behavior over sentiment surveys [2][5][17] - The National Retail Federation anticipates a record holiday spending season, projecting over $1 trillion in spending, a 4% increase from the previous year [6][17] Retail Sector Overview - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey recorded the second-lowest reading in history, indicating a significant decline in consumer confidence [2][5] - Despite negative sentiment, historical trends suggest that consumer spending may not decline as sharply as sentiment indicates [8][17] Key Retail Stocks to Watch - **Walmart (WMT)**: The stock has shown resilience, steadily increasing since April and maintaining a bullish momentum with its 50-day moving average trending upwards [11][12] - **Target (TGT)**: The stock is underperforming, nearing six-year lows, and has not shown significant impact on broader market indices due to its smaller market capitalization of $42 billion [13][14] - **Home Depot (HD)**: The stock is in a weaker position compared to Walmart but stronger than Target, facing challenges from high mortgage rates and a sluggish housing market [15][16] Market Trends and Predictions - The retail sector is experiencing mixed signals, with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) correcting after a significant rise earlier in the year [10][17] - Upcoming earnings reports from major retailers will provide critical insights into consumer spending patterns as the holiday season approaches [7][17]

Michael Bapis. I I'll hit you first here as we uh go towards the closure about two minutes, three minutes away or so. You say there's a lot of cautious optimism in markets.I'll give you there's like volatility came back last week, but do you you feel there's a lot of caution. Look, I think one of the key themes that we're looking at is the battle between, you know, consumer spending and consumer consumer sentiment being down and like you just said, strong equity markets. I mean, we're getting to more now wh ...

Economic Overview - Last week's economic data presented mixed signals, with consumer sentiment dropping to a near-record low and the manufacturing sector continuing its contraction, while the services sector showed signs of expansion [1] - The S&P 500 experienced its first weekly loss in over a month, declining by 1.6% [10] Employment Data - The October ADP employment report indicated that the private sector added 42,000 jobs, surpassing the expected addition of 32,000 jobs, following a loss of 29,000 jobs in September [3] - Job gains were primarily driven by the trade, transportation, and utilities sector, which added 47,000 jobs, with large companies contributing significantly by adding 74,000 jobs [4] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell over 6% to 50.3, marking its lowest level since 2022 and reflecting a nearly 30% decline compared to the previous year [5][6] - The decline in consumer confidence was widespread, with notable exceptions for consumers with significant stock holdings [6] Inflation Expectations - Near-term inflation expectations slightly increased from 4.6% in October to 4.7% in November, while long-term expectations decreased from 3.9% to 3.6% for the five-year outlook [7] Manufacturing and Services Sector - The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the eighth consecutive month, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI falling to 48.7, indicating a faster rate of contraction [8] - Conversely, the U.S. services sector returned to expansion with the ISM Services PMI rising to 52.4, marking its highest level since February and indicating eight months of expansion this year [9] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 saw fluctuations, ultimately closing down 1.6%, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) reflecting the same decline [10] - The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.11%, while the 2-year note finished at 3.55% [10] Federal Reserve Outlook - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 66% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting, with markets anticipating two additional cuts in 2026 [11] Upcoming Economic Data - The ongoing government shutdown has delayed key economic indicators, including the Consumer and Producer Price Indices and Retail Sales report, leading to a light economic calendar for the week ahead [12][13]

Job Market Analysis - The job market is significantly better than reported [1] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer sentiment is significantly better than reported [1] Media Coverage - The media is not incentivized to cover the positive aspects of the job market and consumer sentiment due to lack of clicks [1]

🚨 ALERT: US consumer sentiment has crashed to its 2nd-lowest level in history, per The Kobeissi Letter. https://t.co/QOJiupWkYn ...

>> THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" LIVE FROM WASHINGTON DC JOE: FROM BLOOMBERG WASHINGTON, D.C.'S TO OUR TV AND RADIO AUDIENCES WORLDWIDE, WELCOME TO "BALANCE OF POWER. " ALONGSIDE TYLER KENDALL, I AM JOE MATHIEU. THE DISRUPTIONS BEGAN. THE IMPACTED AIRPORTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY AFTER FLIGHTS ARE REDUCED IN 40 MAJOR CITIES AND IT ALL COMES BACK TO THE ONGOING GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN. WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYING MOMENTS AGO THE SENATE SHOULD NOT LEAVE TOWN UNTIL THEY HAVE A DEAL. WE WILL SPEAK TO OUR REPORTERS IN WASHI ...

Market Overview - Pre-market trading has declined, reflecting a cautious sentiment towards AI infrastructure spending and a lack of economic data, particularly during what was expected to be Jobs Week [1] - The market has seen a downward trend over the past five days, moving away from all-time highs reached in late October [1] Employment Data - Non-farm payroll numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are unavailable due to a government shutdown, with estimates suggesting a loss of 60,000 jobs last month [2] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5%, while hourly wages are anticipated to remain steady at a year-over-year increase of 0.3% [2] - ADP reported an addition of 42,000 new jobs, which is better than BLS estimates but still indicates a weak labor market [3] - The Challenger Job Cuts report indicated 153,000 job cuts, highlighting ongoing challenges in employment [3] Interest Rate Expectations - There is a tentative expectation for a 25 basis-point interest rate cut in approximately 4.5 weeks, although market indexes may have already priced in this cut [4] - The "neutral rate" of inflation is uncertain but is believed to be higher than the optimal 2% [4] Earnings Reports - Wendy's (WEN) reported Q3 earnings of $0.24 per share, exceeding expectations by 20%, leading to a 9% increase in shares [5] - Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) posted earnings of $3.28 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate by 46.4%, although shares are down 2% in early trading [5] - Fluor (FLR) reported Q3 earnings of $0.68 per share, beating expectations by 54.55%, with shares up 4.6% in pre-market trading [6] - Constellation Energy (CEG) reported earnings of $3.04 per share, falling short of the anticipated $3.13, resulting in a 6.3% decline in shares [7] - Canopy Growth (CGC) shares increased by 12% despite reporting a loss of $0.01 per share, an improvement from the expected loss of $0.10 [8] Consumer Sentiment and Credit - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for November is expected to show a slight decrease to 53.0 from 53.6, remaining above the neutral threshold of 50 [9] - Consumer credit for September is projected to total $10.0 billion [9]

Yes, Carl. Just hitting the wires, our November preliminary view of University of Michigan Senate and the accompanying inflation indications. Headline number comes in light.50.3%, very light. We were supposed to get a number 53. Our last final look was 53.6%.50.0% 0 would be the weakest since well the all-time low which was 50 and 50 came in at June of 22 that is the low if you go back to the 70s that's still the low so very close 52.3% on current conditions another huge miss 52.3% well you're now going bac ...

Consumer Sentiment - Consumer sentiment has sunk to a near-record low [1] - University of Michigan survey shows the decline in consumer sentiment [1]