From @WSJopinion: There is much in the GOP bill that deserves criticism, but the $3.3 trillion deficit critique is phony—like Beltway accounting https://t.co/PXM0sBKaMm ...

International Markets - US stocks still have a home bias, but international markets offer catalysts beyond just a weaker dollar [1] - Europe benefits from lower rates and fiscal stimulus, China from AI, and Japan from corporate reform [2] - Emerging markets, including Korea, Taiwan, and Latin America, benefit from the resurgence in hardware within tech and the reorganization of global trade [2][3] - International opportunities are not all dependent on each other, providing diversification [3] US Market & Fiscal Policy - The market has largely priced in the "big beautiful bill," with short-term positive impacts on equity markets due to growth boosts [4][5] - The long-term impact of the bill includes a potentially ever-expanding deficit, estimated to be in the trillions, which could create a floor on yields [5][6] - The market seems to have gotten comfortable with tariffs around 14% or 15%, after a previous range of 2% to 25% [8] Market Resilience & Outlook - The market has shown resilience to geopolitical risks, the reconciliation bill, and recession risks [9][10] - The path of least resistance for the market is higher, given its resilience to various downside risks [10] - The market could become more rangebound in the second half of the year due to higher valuations [12][13] - Diversified portfolios are up 6% to 7% in the first half of the year [14] Bond Market & Yields - Resistance has been met around 45% on the 10-year Treasury yield [15] - Yields could drift lower throughout the year, potentially providing opportunities for investors [16] - Even if yields remain stable, the income cushion will generate a decent return further out on the curve [16]

RT Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal)🇺🇸 SEN. RAND PAUL: CONSERVATIVE? NOT WITH A $5T DEBT CEILING"We have to judge the effects of the big, not-so-beautiful bill by looking at what happens to the debt next year.Supporters of the bill admit it adds $270 billion to the debt next year.That's the only thing we know for certain.We don't know what happens in year 3, 4, 5, 6... but we know next year, this bill will grow the deficit by $270 billion.In addition, the bill increases the debt ceiling by $5 trillion.What does t ...

Fiscal Policy & Economic Impact - The Trump administration's spending bill is projected to increase the US deficit by $33 trillion [1] - White House officials claim the bill will protect and strengthen Medicaid for the needy, pregnant women, children, and sick Americans [2] - The administration projects 3% growth from the bill, adding $4 trillion to revenue, positioning it as a deficit reducer [2] - Economists criticize the GOP for using "accounting creative writing" to mask the $4 trillion cost of the tax bill [3] - The White House Council of Economic Advisers believes the bill will reduce the national debt, a claim considered absurd by some economists [8] Market & Investor Sentiment - Despite concerns about US debt, the stock market initially reacted positively to the bill [10] - The bond market is less enthusiastic than the stock market, and the dollar has performed poorly against other currencies [11] - Some believe the stock market's optimism is fueled by hopes that AI will change the world [11] Trade & Tariffs - Negotiations are slowing because President Trump threatens to impose more tariffs even after a deal [12] - No one has permission to make actual deals for the United States except for the president [13] - Imposing new tariffs upsets the apple cart and restarts negotiations from scratch [14] - The president could tear up trade agreements and demand new ones, undermining commitment [15] Immigration & Labor - The Trump administration is rethinking deportation policies for migrants working in industries like hospitality and agriculture [17] - The administration is considering a temporary pass for farm workers where farmers can have some control [18] - Uncertainty around immigration policies makes it difficult for farmers and hospitality companies to plan, as workers may not show up due to fear of ICE [22]

It is day 162 of the second Trump administration and tonight the focus is on the Senate floor. You are looking at it live right now. All day long, senators have been voting on amendments to Donald Trump's gargantuan tax and spending bill.Republicans are rushing to get the bill to Trump's desk in time for his deadline on Friday. Donald Trump wants you to focus on his campaign promises that are in the bill, like extending the tax cuts from his first term, billions of dollars for border security, and eliminati ...

Hammy Baldwin of Wisconsin taking a break from voterama. Senator Baldwin, are there any Republicans that are going to vote no this evening. The It remains to be seen.And if you can believe it, I believe they are still writing portions of this bill because they are discovering based on the massive input from constituents across the country that this bill is deeply unpopular. Turns out that people don't like uh bills that cut 17 million people off of their health care. And people don't like the idea of taking ...

What you are going to see as a result of the bill that's moving through the Senate that will then go back to the House is a $4 trillion deficit increase. And that's in the view of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. Our estimates at the Yale Budget Lab are very similar.So are those from the Tax Foundation. So are those from from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. So all of these groups are telling you one thing.This is a huge deficit increase. And then you have to ask the question it's ...

We owe it to the states to do the work to understand how these proposals affect them. How hard is that. I did it.How hard is it. I'm telling the president that you have been misinformed. You supporting the Senate mark will hurt people who are eligible and qualified for Medicaid.Hi again everyone. I'm Elisi Menendez in for Nicole Wallace and it is five o'clock here in Washington DC where the voterama taking place in the Senate is still underway on that massive domestic spending bill. A bill that would drasti ...

Tax Bill & Political Landscape - Republicans are pushing a tax bill considered President Trump's signature domestic priority [1] - The bill includes unpopular measures like Medicaid and food stamp cuts, raising concerns among Democrats and some Republicans about midterm election repercussions [2][3] - Public opinion is reportedly 2 to 1 against the bill [1][15] - The Wall Street Journal suggests the bill could hand the next election to the Democrats [15] Deficit & Debt - The Senate version of the bill is estimated to add $3.3 trillion to the debt [4][5][6] - The House bill was estimated to add $2.4 trillion to the debt over the next 10 years [5] - Some Republicans argue economic growth will offset tax revenue losses, while others remain concerned about the deficit [6][7] Republican Concerns & Divisions - Some Republicans worry about the impact of Medicaid cuts on the 2026 elections, drawing comparisons to the 2014 Obamacare backlash [18][19] - Senators like Lisa Murkowski raised concerns, particularly regarding provisions affecting Medicaid payments to Alaska and Hawaii [8][9] - The bill includes a provision that could impose additional taxes on US-based solar and wind companies using products from China, impacting energy-producing states [12][13][14] Energy Policy - The House version of the bill aims to phase out federal subsidies for solar and wind energy, established under the Inflation Reduction Act [11] - Lisa Murkowski is attempting to add a provision related to solar and wind energy [10] - Approximately 80% of the solar industry's components originate from China [14]

Tax Policy & Economic Impact - The speaker disagrees with the initial deficit numbers, citing temporary measures in the House bill that appear to raise revenue but could cause a recession [1] - The speaker suggests that achieving 3% growth instead of 18% (likely a typo and should be 1.8%) would add $4 trillion to revenue, making the bill a deficit reducer [1] - The speaker claims the bill represents the biggest tax cut in history and will be incredibly positive for the budget with a little bit of growth [2] Government Spending & Budget - The speaker mentions discretionary spending rescissions planned for the Senate, potentially amounting to $160 billion this year [2] - The speaker suggests that $160 billion in rescissions would have a deficit impact of $1600 billion (10 times $160 billion) [3]