28 July 2025 | 1:35PM HKT Hong Kong Exchanges (0388.HK) HK equity market activity pulse check; raise EPS/TP; Buy 0388.HK 12m Price Target: HK$500.00 Price: HK$435.80 Upside: 14.7% HKEX share price is ~20% below its 2021 peak, despite rising BBG consensus EPS estimates and one year rolling data on the biggest earnings driver (cash equity ADT) rising to all time high levels (HK$200bn+). We conduct a pulse check on HKEX's earnings drivers from listing related, to cash and derivatives market activity. Our key o ...

Core Viewpoint - Growth stocks are appealing due to their potential for above-average financial growth, but identifying strong candidates is challenging due to inherent risks and volatility [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Orion OYJ Unsponsored ADR (ORINY) is currently highlighted as a recommended growth stock by the Zacks Growth Style Score system, which evaluates a company's growth prospects beyond traditional metrics [2] - The company has a favorable Growth Score and a top Zacks Rank, indicating strong potential for performance [9] Group 2: Earnings Growth - Historical EPS growth for Orion OYJ stands at 8.1%, but projected EPS growth for this year is significantly higher at 30.2%, surpassing the industry average of 14.7% [5] Group 3: Cash Flow Growth - Orion OYJ exhibits a year-over-year cash flow growth of 57.5%, which is substantially above the industry average of 3.1%, highlighting its strong cash accumulation capabilities [6] - The company's annualized cash flow growth rate over the past 3-5 years is 9.7%, compared to the industry average of 6.7% [7] Group 4: Earnings Estimate Revisions - There has been a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions for Orion OYJ, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year increasing by 26.2% over the past month, indicating strong future performance expectations [8]

Core Viewpoint - Energy Transfer presents a compelling investment opportunity due to its high distribution yield, strong financial profile, and attractive valuation [1][10]. Financial Profile - Energy Transfer's diversified midstream business generates substantial and stable cash flow, with approximately 90% of annual earnings backed by fee-based contracts [3]. - In the first quarter, the company produced $2.3 billion of distributable cash flow, distributing over $1.1 billion to investors while retaining the remainder for expansion [3]. - The conservative payout ratio has allowed the company to maintain a leverage ratio in the lower half of its target range of 4 to 4.5 times, positioning it in its strongest financial state in history [4]. Growth Potential - Energy Transfer is projected to grow its EBITDA by around 5% this year, driven by acquisitions, organic expansion projects, and favorable market conditions [5]. - The company is investing $5 billion into growth capital projects this year, including gas processing plants and a new natural gas pipeline, with expectations for earnings growth in 2026 to 2027 [6]. - Key growth catalysts include rising Permian production, increasing gas demand from sectors like AI data centers, and growing export demand for natural gas liquids [8]. Valuation and Returns - Energy Transfer trades at an enterprise value (EV)-to-EBITDA ratio of less than 9, significantly lower than the peer group average of around 12, enhancing its distribution yield [10]. - The company aims to deliver annual distribution increases of 3% to 5%, supported by visible earnings growth from upcoming projects and expansion opportunities [9]. Investment Appeal - Energy Transfer offers a high-yielding distribution and is in the best financial shape in its history, making it an attractive investment for those seeking a lucrative and growing passive income stream [11].

Core Insights - Amphenol's second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings reached 81 cents per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 22.73%, and reflecting an 88.4% year-over-year increase [1][8] - Net sales for the same period increased by 56.5% year over year to $5.7 billion, surpassing the consensus mark by 13.05%, with organic growth contributing 41% [1][8] Financial Performance - The strong top-line performance was driven by robust organic growth across all end markets, particularly in the IT datacom sector, along with strategic contributions from ongoing acquisitions [2] - Harsh Environment Solutions accounted for 25.6% of net sales, generating $1.45 billion, a 38.2% year-over-year increase [3] - Communications Solutions, making up 51.5% of net sales, saw sales of $2.91 billion, up 101.4% year over year [3] - Interconnect and Sensor Systems Solutions represented 22.9% of net sales, with sales of $1.3 billion, reflecting a 15.7% year-over-year increase [3] - Gross margin expanded by 270 basis points year over year to 36.3% [3] - Selling, general and administrative expenses decreased by 130 basis points year over year to 11% of revenues [4] - Adjusted operating margin improved by 430 basis points year over year to 25.6% [4] Balance Sheet & Cash Flow - As of June 30, 2025, Amphenol had cash and cash equivalents of $3.23 billion, down from $3.34 billion at the end of 2024 [5] - Total debt increased to $8.06 billion from $6.89 billion as of December 31, 2024 [5] - The company generated $1.4 billion in cash from operations in the second quarter, a significant increase from $764.9 million in the previous quarter [6] - Non-GAAP free cash flow reached $1.1 billion in the second quarter, up from $580.4 million in the first quarter [6] Future Guidance - For the third quarter of 2025, Amphenol expects earnings between 77 cents and 79 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 54% to 58% [7][9] - Revenue is anticipated to be between $5.4 billion and $5.5 billion, suggesting growth in the range of 34% to 36% year over year [9]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 is expected to experience a significant slowdown in earnings growth, with a projected growth rate of only 5.0% for Q2 2025, which is considerably lower than the growth rates of 11.7% in Q4 2024 and 7.2% in Q1 2025 [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of earnings growth for businesses, as it directly influences stock prices and overall profitability [1][2] - Companies like NVIDIA Corporation, AppLovin Corporation, and GE Aerospace are highlighted for their exceptional earnings growth [8][9] Earnings Estimates & Market Reactions - There is often a disconnect between earnings growth and stock price movements, with stock prices sometimes declining despite earnings increases due to unmet market expectations [2] - Earnings estimates are crucial for investment decisions, reflecting analysts' views on sales growth, product demand, and profit margins [3] Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to seek stocks with historical earnings growth and rising earnings estimates [4] - Screening measures have been established to identify stocks with significant earnings growth and positive estimate revisions, including Zacks Rank and historical EPS growth [5][6] Notable Companies - NVIDIA Corporation is projected to grow earnings by 42.5% this year, driven by global demand for computing solutions [8][9] - AppLovin Corporation leads with an expected earnings growth of 86.3% for the current year [10] - GE Aerospace anticipates a 22.6% annual earnings growth [11]

Core Insights - Verizon Communications Inc. reported strong second-quarter 2025 results with adjusted earnings and revenues exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved net income of $5.12 billion or $1.18 per share, an increase from $4.7 billion or $1.09 per share in the prior-year quarter, primarily driven by top-line growth [3] - Total operating revenues rose by 5.2% to $34.5 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $33.58 billion, fueled by growth in service revenues and higher wireless equipment revenues [4] Segment Performance - Consumer segment revenues increased by 6.9% year over year to $26.65 billion, exceeding estimates of $25.63 billion, with service revenues up 2.1% to $20.26 billion and wireless equipment revenues up 29.6% to $5.37 billion [5] - Business segment revenues decreased by 0.3% to $7.27 billion, falling short of estimates due to lower wholesale and enterprise revenues, partially offset by growth in business markets [8] Subscriber Growth - Verizon recorded 278,000 net additions in fixed wireless access, bringing the total subscriber base to over 5.1 million, positioning the company to meet its target of 8 to 9 million subscribers by 2028 [2][9] - Wireless retail postpaid churn was 1.12%, while retail postpaid phone churn was 0.9%, indicating stable customer retention [6] Cash Flow and Guidance - The company generated $16.76 billion in net cash from operating activities for the first half of 2025, with free cash flow of $5.17 billion for the quarter [12] - For 2025, Verizon expects wireless service revenue growth of 2%-2.8% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 2.5%-3.5%, with adjusted earnings anticipated to grow by 1-3% [13]

Market Overview & Strategy - Tariffs are viewed negatively, but incentives and tax policies are counteracting their impact, contributing to positive equity market action [1] - High valuations and growth expectations are supported by market sentiment [1] - The market favors visible growth, with secular growth themes remaining attractive [1][2] - Tactical pullbacks in fundamentally sound stocks with good earnings and commentary represent buying opportunities [3] Investment Recommendations - IEX (small and midcap industrial ETF) is a recommended buy due to discounted valuations in cyclical areas, exposure to secular themes (water, oil & gas, agriculture), and anticipated earnings growth [1] - The ETF is focused on small and mid-cap industrial companies [1] - Investors are diversifying across asset classes, including short duration fixed income ETFs offering 4-6% yield [5] Risk Assessment - There's concern about investors chasing the rally and crowding into higher beta names, potentially indicating rising complacency [1] - While sentiment is high, the fundamental story remains intact, suggesting that pullbacks can be buying opportunities if earnings and commentary are positive [3]

Tariffs and Import Costs - S&P 500 industries' rising import cost exposure is limited due to country scope and exemptions [1] - Companies are mitigating tariffs effectively, and import prices haven't increased significantly [4] - The big question is who is absorbing the tariffs, whether it's companies' balance sheets, exporters discounting prices, or consumers [5] - The third quarter is identified as a period of risk where tariffs may impact the cost of goods sold [6] Market Performance and Outlook - The market experienced a bear market in the first three to four months of the year, with stocks down 35-40% year-over-year [3] - Earnings revision breadth is surprisingly explosive [4] - The market views the tariff impact as temporary, with 2026 earnings growth prospects looking better [7] - A 5-7% correction is anticipated, representing a buying opportunity [6][7] - Pullbacks are expected to be short and shallow, with a potential correction of no more than 5-10% [8] - The current market behavior resembles the beginning of a new bull market, characterized by rapid acceleration [8]

Market Overview - The Nasdaq reached a record closing high as the second-quarter earnings season begins, with President Trump announcing a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU, prompting negotiations before the August 1 deadline [1][2] - The S&P 500 is expected to see 4.7% earnings growth on 4% higher revenues for Q2, indicating a slowdown compared to previous quarters [3] Earnings Reports - JPMorgan Chase reported Q2 earnings of $4.96 per share, exceeding estimates by 9.98%, with revenues of $44.91 billion also surpassing expectations [9] - Nvidia's stock rose approximately 4% after announcing plans to resume sales of restricted H20 GPUs to China, with government assurances of license approvals [11][12] Historical Context - The S&P 500 experienced a significant rally, advancing over 25% from April lows, a feat accomplished only five times since 1957, with historical data suggesting double-digit gains in the following year [7] - The first half of the year was marked by volatility due to trade tensions, but market performance improved as trade-talk progress became clearer [5][6]