Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL) Q2 2025 Earnings Call August 27, 2025 11:00 AM ET Speaker0Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Grupo Financiero Galicia Second Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Call. This conference is being recorded, and the replay will be available at the company's website at gfgsa.com. We would like to inform that all attendees will only be listening the conference during the presentation, and then we will start the question and answer section when further instructions will be ...

Will we look back on this day as the day that Fed independents died. It's too early in to know. And you know, we've seen a lot that has been threatening to Fed independents.an unprecedented degree of rhetorical attack publicly from the president on the Fed, involvement of the president in criticism of the Fed over a relatively minor matter, the creation, the construction of a building, announcements uh by the president of various kinds with respect to uh the composition of uh the Federal Reserve. So, I don' ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for the North American economy, particularly focusing on interest rate adjustments and labor market conditions. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Forecast for Rate Cuts**: The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts starting in September, with a projected 25 basis point (bp) cut as the baseline [1][4][12] 2. **Shift in Fed's Focus**: Chair Powell has expressed increased concern over labor market risks, marking a shift from previous emphasis on low unemployment and persistent inflation [1][4][10] 3. **Rate Cut Projections**: The expectation is for two rate cuts in 2025, with a 25bp cut in September and another in December, followed by quarterly cuts in 2026, targeting a terminal range of 2.75-3.0% [4][17] 4. **Economic Growth and Inflation**: Real GDP growth averaged 1.3% in the first half of the year, with inflation expected to remain above the Fed's 2.0% target due to tariff-related price increases [7][8] 5. **Labor Market Dynamics**: The unemployment rate has remained stable at 4.2%, despite a slowdown in labor demand, indicating a complex balance in the labor market [7][11] 6. **Risks to Employment**: There is a growing concern about downside risks to employment, which could lead to higher layoffs and rising unemployment if materialized [11][12] 7. **Inflation Dynamics**: The Fed is cautious about the potential for tariffs to create lasting inflationary pressures, although current conditions do not suggest a tight labor market [11][12] 8. **Dissenting Opinions**: There may be dissent among Fed members regarding rate cuts, with some members likely to oppose the cuts based on the balance of risks [16] Other Important Considerations 1. **Data Dependency**: The Fed's decision-making will heavily depend on upcoming employment and inflation data, particularly the August employment report [15][19] 2. **Potential for Multiple Cuts**: The updated forecast suggests the possibility of several rate cuts followed by a pause, depending on economic conditions [17][19] 3. **Uncertainty in Economic Outlook**: The evolving economic landscape introduces uncertainty, with the potential for more aggressive cuts if a recession occurs [18][19] 4. **Market Reactions**: The Fed's communication strategy indicates that any adjustments in policy will likely involve more than a single rate cut, signaling a cautious approach [14] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook and its implications for the economy.

Summary of Deutsche Bank Group Research on Japan Economic Perspectives Industry/Company Involved - **Industry**: Japanese Economy - **Company**: Deutsche Bank Group Key Points and Arguments Economic Growth Forecasts - The growth forecast for fiscal 2025 has been revised upward from 0.6% to 1.0% based on 2Q 2025 GDP figures, which showed a real GDP growth rate of 1.0% saar, exceeding market consensus of 0.3% [4][5] - The forecast for fiscal 2026 has been revised downward from 1.1% to 0.9% [4][5] - Growth forecasts continue to exceed consensus estimates [5] Tariff Negotiations and Economic Impact - Reciprocal tariffs with the US will be raised to 15%, while tariffs on automobiles will be lowered [4][9] - The impact of the US tariff increase on the real economy has been limited so far, with no significant change in export volumes to the US [10] - The expected impact on growth rates due to tariff changes is -0.1% for fiscal 2025 and 2026 [9] Inflation and Consumption Trends - Despite high inflation, real private consumption is on a moderate upward trend, primarily due to increases in real employee compensation [15] - Real employee compensation remains below pre-pandemic levels, with a significant negative real wage gap of about -4% in 2Q 2025 [15][23] - Inflation is expected to decelerate moderately but is unlikely to fall significantly below 2% [23] Monetary Policy Outlook - No significant changes in the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) stance on interest rate hikes are expected unless Takaichi becomes prime minister [4][46] - An interest rate hike is anticipated in October, influenced by the political calendar and economic measures [46][47] Political Landscape and Future Cooperation - The political situation will be influenced by the outcome of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election, with potential cooperation with opposition parties depending on the outcome [38][42] - If Prime Minister Ishiba remains in office, cooperation with the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) or the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) is likely [38][42] Fiscal Policy Uncertainty - High uncertainty exists regarding future economic measures, with a placeholder assumption of a supplementary budget of about 15 trillion yen [34] - Further increases in defense spending sought by the US government are not reflected in the current economic outlook [34] Employment and Wage Dynamics - The number of employees has increased at an annual rate of about 0.7-0.8%, contributing to the rise in real employee compensation [15] - Nominal wage increases of at least 3% are deemed necessary to address the negative real wage gap [15] Long-term Economic Policy Trends - The long-term trend in economic policy is shifting from monetary policy to fiscal policy, focusing more on household-oriented policies rather than corporate-oriented ones [45][42] Other Important Content - The presence of a Liberal Democratic Party presidential election will significantly influence future political cooperation and economic policy direction [38][42] - The economic measures and their scale will be critical in shaping the economic outlook, with potential implications for fiscal policy and public sentiment regarding inflation and consumption [34][23]

Inflation & Employment Risks - Inflation risks are tilted to the upside, while employment risks lean towards the downside [1] - The framework necessitates balancing both sides of the dual mandate [1] Monetary Policy Stance - The policy rate is 100 basis points closer to neutral than a year ago [2] - The stability of the unemployment rate allows for careful consideration of policy changes [2] - With policy in restrictive territory, adjustments to the policy stance may be warranted [2] - Monetary policy is not on a preset course [3] - Decisions will be based solely on data assessment and its implications for the economic outlook and balance of risks [3]

Inflation & Tariffs - The Fed acknowledges that higher tariffs have started to increase prices in certain categories [2] - July's core PCE is observed at 2.9%, a 0.1% increase from June, with notable upward pressure on goods and downward pressure on housing and non-housing services [2] - The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible and expected to accumulate in the coming months, although the base case assumes these effects will be relatively short-lived [3] - It will take time for the tariffs to fully impact supply chains [3] Labor Market - Job growth slowdown is more significant than previously estimated, with substantial downward revisions [4] - The labor market is in a curious balance, characterized by slowing supply and demand for workers [5] - The break-even rate required to maintain a stable unemployment rate has been sharply reduced due to immigration policies [5] - Risks to the labor market could lead to rapid increases in layoffs and unemployment, prompting caution regarding rate levels [6] Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The shifting balance of risk may warrant adjustments to the Fed's policy stance [1] - Current policy is modestly restrictive, but the stability of the unemployment rate allows the Fed to proceed cautiously [1] - Inflation risks are to the upside, while employment risks are to the downside [1] - The Fed aims to take a balanced approach to its dual mandate [2] - Economic growth has slowed notably in the first half [6]

Your latest thoughts then ahead of Jackson Hole. Mark, earlier this week, you were very preoccupied by the political pressure being applied to the Fed and what that will either in the short term or longer term due to the long end of the curve. Absolutely.I think the really important thing to remember that that going into Jackson Hole this weekend, it's clearly going to be market moving. Today, there seems to be a complete divide in the market, whether it be hawkish or dovish. For what it's worth and not ver ...

Welcome back to Squawk Box. Joining us now Jeremy Siegel, chief economist at Wisdomtree and professor emeritus of finance at University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business. Good to see you, Jeremy.We have had guys like Kevin Warsh will mention tariff inflation. He'll say tariffs aren't what causes inflation. Never has been, never will be.Inflation is caused by an out of control money supply or too much stimulus stimulus in a supply constrained world, in your view. And what you're saying here, up th ...

Inflation & Monetary Policy - The Fed's stance on policy and AI initiatives could be reasons why inflation expectations are under control [1] - Tariffs are considered one-off changes in price and are not expected to metastasize into long-term inflation [1] - The speaker disagrees with the idea that many jobs are being left on the table [1] - The speaker suggests that the current focus is on fighting the last battle [1] Fed Chair Candidacy & Perspective - The speaker has been in contact with many people in the administration, discussing similar agenda points [4] - The speaker believes having more market-savvy individuals involved in monetary policy decisions would be beneficial [8] - The speaker acknowledges the importance of understanding and debating economic models used by the Fed, despite not being a big believer in them [7] - The speaker would not divorce their market strategist perspective if they were to become Fed Chair [5] Treasury Secretary - The speaker has known the Treasury Secretary for well over a decade and has high expectations for their performance [2][3] - The speaker believes the Treasury Secretary has exceeded even the loftiest of expectations [3]

Federal Reserve Nomination - President intends to nominate Steven Mir, chair of his council of economic advisers, to the open seat created by Audriana Cougler's departure [1] - Nomination might be considered for the October meeting, with a very difficult outside chance for the September meeting [2] Economic Policy Implications - Steven Mir is seen as an intellectual architect of the president's policies, including devaluing the US dollar to help US manufacturing [2] - Mir is a critic of the trade deficit and believed to be a key author of the Mara Lago accords, potentially involving a 100-year bond to foreign holders of US debt in a non-interest bearing account [2] - Rethinking trade is a significant aspect of the president's agenda, and a looser monetary policy could devalue the US dollar [3]