Monetary policymakers should not try to fix all Britain's economic problems despite the issues the country faces but stick to the core job of tackling inflation, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said in a call for "conservative central banking." https://t.co/5FVnx41PQj ...

Copper fell as US Federal Reserve officials cautioned against rapid loosening of monetary policy, undermining the case for a demand boost to metals https://t.co/gf6jSMEiMN ...

Government Shutdowns & Market Impact - The market's lack of reaction to government shutdowns incentivizes politicians to continue this practice, as they perceive it as base signaling [5][6] - While shutdowns may not have immediate economic effects, a central bank making incorrect decisions due to missing data could have longer-term consequences [9] - Betting markets indicate the shutdown will likely end in a couple of weeks [2] Federal Reserve & Data Dependency - The Federal Reserve risks making policy decisions without complete information due to potential data delays from the shutdown, including jobs reports, CPI, and PPI [7][9] - There is concern that the Fed might rely on private jobs data and Google searches if official data is unavailable [9] Housing Market & Government Intervention - The president's urging of home builders to increase construction is viewed with concern, particularly regarding potential inflationary effects from mismatched supply and demand [10][12][13] - Artificially juicing demand for housing, especially with long-term supply issues related to local zoning regulations, could lead to problems reminiscent of 2008 [12][13] - The president should focus on encouraging states and local governments to ease zoning regulations to increase housing supply [14]

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets are showing a cautiously optimistic start to the week, with futures pointing higher despite the ongoing government shutdown, which has now entered its sixth day [1] - Investors are navigating a landscape marked by delayed economic data, anticipation of Federal Reserve policy decisions, and a flurry of corporate news [1] Premarket Activity and Index Futures - U.S. stock index futures are posting gains, with Nasdaq futures leading the advance; S&P 500 futures are up approximately 0.3% to 0.45%, Nasdaq 100 futures have climbed between 0.5% and 0.50%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are rising around 0.2% to 0.26% [2] - Last week, all three major indices reached fresh record highs, with the S&P 500 and Dow both advancing around 1.1%, and the Nasdaq climbing 1.32% for the week [2] Major Market Indexes Performance and Trends - The S&P 500 is currently trading near its all-time high of 6754.26 points, having climbed 3.82% over the past month and 18.38% compared to the same time last year [3] - The Nasdaq Composite is in a rising trend channel, signaling increasing optimism, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average also shows strong development within a rising trend channel [3] - Positive sentiment is largely attributed to a "risk-on" trade around artificial intelligence (AI) and expectations of accommodative monetary policy [3] Upcoming Market Events - Key events this week include the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on October 8, which will provide insights into the Federal Reserve's thinking following its September meeting [4] - The Fed is widely expected to cut rates again at its next meeting on October 28-29, potentially bringing the Federal Funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% [4] Economic Data Releases - Important economic data releases this week include consumer credit data on October 7 and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index on October 10 [5] Earnings Season - The third-quarter earnings season is set to begin, with major banking giants such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo among the first to report [6] - Several companies are scheduled to release earnings on October 6, including Constellation Brands, VinFast, and others [6] Major Stock News and Developments - Tesla has teased a possible new model ahead of an October 7 reveal, following strong vehicle delivery figures [11] - Apple saw its stock fall in premarket trading after a downgrade by Jefferies, citing overly high expectations for the forthcoming foldable iPhone [11] - Applied Materials announced that new U.S. export rules would reduce its fourth-quarter revenue and its 2026 revenue outlook [11] - Boeing may face further delays in the commercial service of its 777X aircraft, potentially pushing it back to 2027 [11] - Palantir Technologies' shares sank following a report indicating security problems in a new battlefield communications network [11] - Nvidia continues to be recognized as the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 over the last 10, 15, and 20 years [11] - Quantum Computing Inc. plans to utilize proceeds from a new offering to fund its commercialization efforts [11] - Firefly Aerospace's stock jumped after announcing a strategic acquisition of SciTec, Inc. [11] - Nikon Corporation announced a change in its major shareholder, with EssilorLuxottica increasing its stake to up to 20% [11] - Rio Tinto is set to roll out new technology in its pursuit of more metals, indicating strategic investments in operational efficiency [11]

Key Insights on Financial Markets Gold Market - Gold prices have surged nearly 50% this year, marking the best performance since 1979, driven by institutional investment amid global uncertainty and central bank diversification away from the U.S. dollar [3][10] - Spot gold reached a record high of $3,322.90 per ounce on April 17, 2025, with analysts predicting potential prices of $4,000 within a year and $5,000 in the coming years [3][4] European Bonds - French bond futures declined by 0.18% due to market uncertainty, exacerbated by a Fitch downgrade of France's sovereign credit rating from AA- to A+, the lowest on record, citing political instability and rising debt [5][10] - Ongoing anti-austerity protests and budget negotiation challenges for the new Prime Minister contribute to a cautious outlook for European fixed income markets [6] Asian Equities - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell by 0.6%, influenced by negative investor sentiment due to a U.S. government shutdown, which complicates the monetary policy outlook [7][10] - The political stalemate in Washington has dampened risk appetite in equity markets and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [8] Oil Market - OPEC+'s oil output increases are reducing spare production capacity, raising concerns about future supply disruptions, despite a planned increase of 137,000 barrels per day for November [9][11] - Oil prices saw a modest gain of about 1% in early trading, but analysts expect crude prices to remain weak due to a gloomy global economic outlook and weakening Chinese demand [11] Geopolitical Developments - Moscow's air defenses have successfully intercepted multiple drone threats, leading to temporary disruptions at major airports, highlighting ongoing geopolitical tensions [12] - A diplomatic visit by a Vietnamese leader to North Korea marks an effort by Pyongyang to break its international isolation amidst heavy sanctions [13]

Market Outlook & Economic Conditions - Uncertainty surrounding government shutdowns and Washington agreement weighs on investors, but underlying fundamentals are lifting markets [3] - Softening labor market and potential inflationary pressures due to tariffs create a complex situation for the Federal Reserve [8] - Political polarization in Washington can erode investor confidence [6] - Northern Trust Asset Management believes the odds of a US recession have decreased [10] Monetary Policy - The market anticipates potential Fed interest rate cuts due to uncertainty [7] - Northern Trust Asset Management expects the Fed funds rate to be approximately 100 basis points (1%) lower over the next 12 months [9] Investment Strategy - Northern Trust Asset Management favors risk assets (stocks) within a balanced portfolio [10] - Recently, the firm has increased exposure to the US market due to increased confidence in a soft landing [10] - Companies doubled earnings estimates last quarter, indicating a strong trend for the year ahead [11]

Key TakeawaysMorgan Stanley has significantly raised its price targets for tech giants Apple (AAPL) to $298.00 and Alphabet (GOOGL) to $270.00, signaling a strong bullish outlook for the sector.The ongoing US government shutdown has led to the cancellation of key economic data releases, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, resulting in a quieter trading session and shifting market focus to alternative indicators like ISM Services data.European LNG imports saw a substantial surge in September, climbi ...

Group 1 - The U.S. dollar showed resilience against the Vietnamese dong, trading at VND26,446 at Vietcombank and VND26,620 in the informal market, despite a one-week low against major currencies [1] - The dollar index, measuring the currency against six major peers, was recorded at 97.814, having dipped to a low of 97.633, indicating a notable decline since last Wednesday [2] - The euro edged up to $1.1738, following a rise to $1.1762, while the dollar remained flat at 147.92 yen after a 1.2% drop over the previous three days [3] Group 2 - Political developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown could lead to a further decline in the dollar, as weak economic data may exacerbate the situation [4] - Market attention is shifting towards private-sector indicators due to the lack of official economic data, with heightened responsiveness expected as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision approaches on October 29 [3]

Inflation Projections - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has revised downwards its FY26 Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation projection by 50 basis points to 2.6%, which is a significant 160 basis point cut from earlier projections made in April [2][3] - The report suggests that actual inflation for both FY26 and FY27 could be much lower than the RBI's revised estimates due to favorable domestic conditions [2][3] Economic Growth Estimates - The RBI has also increased its estimate for real GDP growth for FY26 to 6.8% [3] - For FY27, the inflation projection is set at 4.5% [3] Monetary Policy Insights - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to maintain the policy rate unchanged, which is seen as a logical move given the current global economic uncertainties [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monetary policy communication in shaping expectations and maintaining clarity in forward guidance [4] Future Rate Cuts - The report indicates that the RBI may be open to future rate cuts due to low inflation forecasts and recent downward adjustments in growth estimates, although the timing of such cuts remains uncertain [5] Domestic Financial System - The MPC's decision reflects a dynamic approach that goes beyond traditional monetary policy, supported by comfortable liquidity conditions and a stable external sector despite trade uncertainties [6] - The domestic financial system is expected to benefit from forward-looking reforms aimed at enhancing India's global positioning and reinforcing its resilient economic ecosystem [6]

Key TakeawaysThe UK government plans to exempt shares of newly-listed companies from stamp duty, a move aimed at boosting London's appeal as a financial hub.Intel (INTC) shares surged 6% to $35.60, driven by increased trading volume, indicating strong investor interest.Former U.S. President Donald Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, labeling him an "obstructionist" on Truth Social, potentially signaling future monetary policy clashes.Volkswagen of America reported a 6% year-on-year decline ...