Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicates a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, advocating for a rate cut at the upcoming December meeting due to concerns over a weak labor market [2][9] - Waller estimates ex-tariff inflation to be around 2.4% or 2.5%, suggesting that inflation is not a major problem given the weak labor market [3][9] - A more meeting-by-meeting approach is expected by January, with Waller acknowledging the challenges posed by new data influencing future rate decisions [3] Geopolitical Developments - Ukraine's delegation for peace plan talks is returning from Geneva, following discussions between Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan regarding a potential peace plan [4][9] - Erdogan has expressed readiness to mediate in the conflict, indicating broader international engagement on the issue [5] US Agriculture Sector - US Agriculture Secretary Rollins announces that aid for farmers is expected to be unveiled in the week following Thanksgiving, with a formal announcement anticipated soon [6] - China has resumed purchasing US soybeans, which could significantly boost US agricultural exports and farmer incomes [7][9] Market Movements - Spot gold prices have surged past the $4,080/oz mark, climbing 0.36% intraday, reflecting investor uncertainty or a flight to safety [10][9] - In US pre-market trading, major indices show gains, with tech giants like Google and Tesla leading the pack with increases of 3.5% and 2.1% respectively [11][9] Housing Market Imbalance - The US housing market experienced a significant imbalance in October, with home sellers exceeding buyers by 37%, marking the widest gap recorded since 2013 [13][9] - A report from the San Francisco Federal Reserve suggests that tariffs contribute to lower inflation and weaker aggregate demand, leading to higher unemployment [14]

19 November 2025 China Macro Tracker Economics Not yet at the finishing line Policy support: Slowing activity should prompt further policy support China's economic activity slowed in October, with investment, consumption, and industrial production softening due to subdued external demand and weaker domestic momentum (see China activity, 14 November). This should prompt a strong policy response on both the fiscal and monetary fronts to meet this year's growth targets and ensure a strong start for the 15th Fi ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Susan Collins, is currently not in favor of cutting the U.S. central bank's interest rate target in the upcoming month due to persistent risks related to inflation and employment mandates [1] Group 1 - Susan Collins emphasizes the ongoing risks to inflation that the Federal Reserve is facing [1] - The job mandates are also a significant concern for the Federal Reserve, influencing the decision on interest rates [1]

Group 1 - The monetary policy is focused on balancing downside risks to maximum employment and upside risks to price stability, with increased downside risks to employment as the labor market cools [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has reduced the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in its last two meetings to restore inflation to a sustained 2% goal [2] - The current monetary policy is viewed as modestly restrictive, with potential for further adjustments to align the policy stance closer to neutral, maintaining a balance between employment and price stability goals [3] Group 2 - Future policy decisions will be based on the evolution of data, economic outlook, and the balance of risks related to maximum employment and price stability [4]

And yet on the committee, we have pushback almost. Maybe after that, Fed Governor Michael Barr had this to say. I'm concerned that we're seeing inflation still around 3%.Inflation is closer to three, that it is to two. What do you make of that argument. How persuasive is it.It's not persuasive to me, and I'll tell you why. All of the inflation excess, almost all of the inflation excess is a mirage. It's not indicative of supply demand imbalances.And so, for example, if you look at the housing market, right, ...

Group 1 - The March Euro currency futures are showing a downward trend, indicating a selling opportunity due to bearish technical advantages [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on U.S. monetary policy is bullish for the U.S. dollar and bearish for the Euro, compounded by budget concerns in the European Union and political issues in France [2] - A breach of the November low support level at 1.1545 in March Euro currency futures would empower bears and present a selling opportunity, with a downside target of 1.1200 [3] Group 2 - Technical resistance for protective buy stops is identified at 1.1700, indicating a strategic point for traders [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is adopting a cautious approach towards cryptocurrencies and stablecoins due to their associated risks [1][6]. Regulatory Approach - The Indian government is yet to decide on the regulation of cryptocurrencies, with a working group established to evaluate how to handle crypto assets in the country [4]. - India is leaning towards maintaining partial oversight of cryptocurrencies rather than creating comprehensive legislation, citing concerns over systemic risks [5]. Digital Innovations - The RBI has a more accommodating stance towards digital innovations such as the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) and digital lending, contrasting with its cautious approach to cryptocurrencies [2]. Market Context - U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins have a market capitalization exceeding $300 billion, while the overall cryptocurrency market cap has surpassed $4 trillion [3]. - The rising popularity of U.S. dollar stablecoins is expected to pose challenges for global monetary policy in the coming year [2]. Trading Environment - The RBI's warnings about the risks associated with cryptocurrencies have led to a near freeze in trading between India's formal financial system and cryptocurrencies [6].

The central bank’s inflation miss in the first three months of the year was 0.7 percentage points — the biggest gap in almost six years, and well above economists’ projections. Estimates in the subsequent two quarters have also been off the mark, by smaller margins of 0.2 points and 0.1 points, respectively. Economists predict another big miss in the current quarter after a surprisingly low inflation print in October. That means the RBI’s projection of 2.6% for the fiscal year through March, published as r ...

The cryptocurrency market suffered a sharp selloff on Nov. 14, with the price of Bitcoin plummeting below $96,000 for the first time in six months. This reflected a steep drop of more than 20% from its recent high north of $126,000, achieved in October.Other major tokens, like Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, slid more than 10%, while Solana’s SOL and Binance’s BNB all recorded losses ranging from 6% to 10%, indicating a broad market retreat. The decline spilled over into crypto-linked equities, wi ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is shifting, with officials expressing concerns that further cuts could exacerbate inflation rather than support the labor market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeff Schmid indicated that additional interest-rate cuts might solidify higher inflation instead of aiding the cooling labor market [2][3]. - Schmid's remarks have influenced market expectations regarding a potential interest-rate cut in December, which was previously anticipated with near certainty [2][3]. - The Fed's dual mandate requires balancing price stability and low unemployment, complicating monetary policy decisions [3]. Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation - Pre-shutdown data showed unemployment stable at 4.3%, but there are rising concerns about fewer job openings and new hires [4]. - Annual inflation stands at 3%, above the Fed's 2% target, indicating ongoing price pressures despite a recent interest rate cut [5]. - The increase in costs for essentials like groceries, rent, and utilities is affecting household and business sentiment towards the economy [6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Challenges - Price pressures are attributed to both tariff-related inflation and emerging concerns in the service sector, particularly in elder-care and day-care costs [9]. - The government shutdown has created a data gap, forcing the Fed to rely on private surveys and alternative data sources for economic indicators [9].