Monetary Policy & Liquidity - The market anticipates a 25bps (0.25%) rate cut by the FOMC, but this is already factored into prices [1] - The end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) does not equate to the start of Quantitative Easing (QE), implying continued tight monetary conditions [1] - Liquidity is diminishing, and despite calls for new liquidity injections, the FED is unlikely to initiate QE soon, given inflation is 50% above the target, unless a major crisis occurs [1] - The FED has historically only printed money during crises, and a crisis is currently brewing in the REPO market [2] - Repo facilities are strained, overnight funding is collapsing, and liquidity stress is spreading throughout the system, indicating a very low amount of available cash [2] Market Outlook - The author maintains a short position on BTC and Stocks, expecting no sustainable strength [1][2] - The author's short orders for BTC are stacked between 116,700–117,200, primarily in USDT [2] - The expectation is that euphoria will fade, liquidity will vanish, and the system will crack, prompting the Fed to print again [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the upcoming decision regarding the next Federal Reserve chair, with expectations for an announcement in December [3][4][16] - There is speculation about the candidates and their potential policy differences, particularly regarding inflation and the operational framework of the Fed [4][5][6] Candidate Selection Process - Besson plans to conduct further interviews, potentially leading to leaks about preferred candidates, with a decision expected after Thanksgiving [2] - The president is believed to have a preferred candidate in mind, which may expedite the selection process [2][3] Policy Perspectives - Most candidates are described as hawkish, with a consensus on fighting inflation, but there are differing views on the Fed's operational systems and powers [4][5][7] - Some candidates advocate for a return to the corridor system from the current floor system, which would represent a significant shift in Fed operations [5][6] Decision-Making Dynamics - The chair's diplomatic skills are crucial in navigating discussions among Fed governors, aiming for consensus on policy decisions [9][10] - The current environment is characterized by a divided Fed, which may influence the incoming chair's approach to policy [8][10] Historical Context - The article notes that the current selection process is unusual compared to past appointments, which typically did not involve extensive public speculation [11][12] - Previous Fed chairs were often chosen based on their qualifications and political alignment, with less emphasis on public perception [12][13]

Market Trend Analysis - Market is filtering panic sellers before the next parabolic phase starts, similar to previous altseasons [1] - Bull trend is intact, anticipating a parabolic pump in the next 4-6 months [1] Bullish Factors - Gold hits $30 Trillion, historically leading to capital flow into Bitcoin after stabilization [1] - M2 money supply is exploding [3] - The FED will end Quantitative Tightening (QT) and potentially begin Quantitative Easing (QE) [3] - Expecting 3-4 rate cuts in the next 6 months [3] - US stocks are hitting new highs [3] - Anticipating crypto-friendly regulations from the US Government [3] - 155 altcoin ETFs filings are expected to be approved after shutdown ends [3] Sentiment - Trust the Data, Ignore the Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD) [2]

Core Insights - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is critical for market movements, particularly regarding potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and overall investor sentiment [1][3][6] - A softer CPI reading could lead to a 25-50 basis point rate cut, which may boost Bitcoin prices towards $113,000-$114,000, while a hotter reading could delay cuts and dampen market momentum [7][6] Market Reactions - Global markets are experiencing cautious optimism, with crypto, stocks, and ETFs climbing as traders anticipate a softer inflation print [2][6] - Bitcoin has surpassed $111,000, driven by easing U.S.-China trade tensions and a broader risk appetite [2] ETF and Crypto Trends - U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.23 billion in outflows last week, while global crypto ETF inflows reached $5.95 billion, marking the strongest inflow this quarter [4] - Ethereum and Solana have gained between 3-5% amid growing confidence in an easing monetary cycle [4] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is hinting at a potential return to quantitative easing (QE), which could flood the financial system with liquidity once the government reopens [5][8] - Historically, monetary easing has correlated with digital asset rallies, suggesting a bullish outlook for the crypto market if QE resumes [9] Sentiment Indicators - The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has increased to 27, indicating cautious optimism among traders, though it remains far from euphoria [10]

Economic Policy and Central Banks - The Fed needs to consider reforms, particularly regarding quantitative easing (QE), which has not been stimulative and has contributed to wealth inequality [1][2] - There is a call for the Fed to allow more market functionality and to be open to changes, especially concerning stable coins and short-term markets [1][2] - The current high capital gains tax in the US is seen as detrimental to market dynamism, and lowering it could lead to increased investment and growth [1][2][3] Taxation and Growth - Tax cuts are advocated for both the US and Japan to stimulate growth, with Japan's high marginal tax rate of 45% being a concern [1][2] - The idea of a temporary capital gains tax holiday is proposed, suggesting it could lead to a windfall for the government and potentially be extended if successful [2][3] - The impact of tax policies on market behavior is highlighted, with lower tax rates leading to increased equity values as they reflect growth opportunities [2][3] Interest Rates and National Debt - The current short-term interest rates set by the Fed at 4.15% are considered too high, especially in relation to long-term rates, indicating the Fed is behind the curve [3][4] - There is a concern that the national debt is too large, which could affect the demand for dollars, but recent trends show a preference for US assets as gold prices decline [3][4] - A suggestion for a 50 basis point cut in interest rates is made, arguing that the Fed should have started cutting earlier to align with market conditions [4][5]

Market Trends - Quantitative Tightening (QT) is ending in the coming months [1] - Quantitative Easing (QE) could start soon [1] Investment Opportunities & Potential Risks - The end of QT and potential start of QE is considered mega bullish for Bitcoin and crypto [1]

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the Fed may have prolonged its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchases during the pandemic, but suggested that their impact on the housing market may have been less significant than assumed [3][5][9] - Powell indicated that various factors, including pandemic-related demand shifts and supply constraints, played a role in the housing market dynamics beyond just MBS purchases [4][9][10] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's MBS Purchases - Powell reflected on the Fed's pandemic-era MBS purchases, admitting that they might have been maintained for too long [3][5] - He noted that the Fed's actions were intended to mitigate economic risks during the pandemic [5][11] Impact on Housing Market - Critics argue that the Fed's MBS purchases contributed to an overheated housing market by keeping mortgage rates artificially low, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reaching a record low of 2.65% in January 2021 [8][9] - Powell acknowledged some validity to this critique but emphasized that other factors, such as increased demand for housing and limited supply, were also influential [9][10] Future Monetary Policy - Powell stated that while the Fed cannot reverse its past asset purchases, it can adopt a more flexible approach in future quantitative easing (QE) programs [10][11] - He firmly rejected the idea of resuming MBS purchases to address current housing affordability issues, emphasizing that the Fed's focus is on overall inflation rather than specific housing prices [12][13]

Monetary Policy - Quantitative Tightening (QT) 将在未来几个月结束 [1] - Quantitative Easing (QE) 将会紧随其后 [1] Market Outlook - 行业认为这对另类加密货币 (altcoins) 是极大利好 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction campaign may conclude soon, with potential interest rate cuts on the horizon, impacting various markets including cryptocurrencies and gold [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased from nearly $9 trillion in mid-2022 to approximately $6.6 trillion, with a reduction of about $2.4 trillion since then [2][3]. - Powell indicated that the Fed has no intention of reverting to its pre-COVID balance sheet size of $4 trillion, as non-reserve liabilities are now about $1.1 trillion higher than before the pandemic [3]. - The Fed's ability to pay interest on bank reserves is under threat from Congress, which Powell warned could undermine the central bank's control over interest rates [1][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Gold prices reached a record high near $4,200, reflecting a 59% increase year-to-date, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts [2]. - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with ADP data indicating a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, and Powell noting that both layoffs and hiring remain low [4]. - Powell acknowledged rising downside risks to employment, suggesting a likely quarter-point rate cut at the upcoming meeting on October 28-29 [2][4]. Group 3: Critiques and Future Outlook - Powell faced criticism regarding the timing of quantitative easing during the pandemic, admitting that the Fed could have acted sooner [4]. - There are emerging signs of tightening liquidity conditions, which could potentially hinder economic growth if reserve reductions continue [3].

Even if you believe that the Fed is easing into an economy on its last legs, why worry?In 2008, it took 9 months after Bear Stearns to start QE.In 2020, it took 2 weeks.In 2023, just 2 days to unveil BTFP after Silicon Valley Bank collapsed.The Fed's crisis response time has gone from 9 months to 2 days over the last 17 years.If liquidity seized up tomorrow, they'd roll out another acronym facility to backstop hundreds of billions in distressed assets, either through direct-purchase programs or through pled ...