Senate Republicans are expected to propose revisions to key tax and healthc care policies in the President Trump backed budget bill this week as lawmakers rush to get the bill done by July 4th. Congress members and key White House officials are expected to meet as early as Thursday. Joining us now on this, we've got Kevin Brady.He is former chair of the House Ways and Means Committee and architect of President Trump's original tax cuts. It's great to have you on this morning, Congressman. Thank you so much ...

Market Performance - Major market indexes started the trading day in the red, with the Dow down 114 points (-0.27%), S&P 500 down 0.39%, and Nasdaq down 72 points (-0.38%). Only the Russell 2000 managed a slight gain of 1 point (+0.05%) [1] - The S&P 500 ended its six-day winning streak, indicating a potential shift in market momentum [1] Economic Context - No significant economic data was released, and there were no updates on tariff negotiations. Concerns are rising regarding a proposed tax bill that could significantly increase the federal deficit [2] - The U.S. credit rating has been downgraded by major credit agencies, reflecting growing fiscal concerns [2] Recovery Outlook - The anticipated "V-shaped recovery" appears to be stalling, particularly in the absence of major trade agreements. Major indexes have seen double-digit gains over the past month, but only the Dow and S&P 500 are positive year-to-date [3] Earnings Reports - Palo Alto Networks reported mixed fiscal Q3 results, with earnings of $0.39 per share, missing expectations by $0.02, but revenues of $2.3 billion exceeded consensus, marking a 15% year-over-year increase [4] - Toll Brothers exceeded earnings expectations with $3.50 per share against a consensus of $2.86, and revenues of $2.71 billion surpassed the $2.50 billion forecast. However, signed contracts were down 13% [4] Upcoming Market Events - The upcoming week lacks major economic reports until Thursday's Weekly Jobless Claims, with focus shifting to potential trade deals and the implications of the new tax bill on the federal deficit [5] - Big-box retailers are concluding the earnings season, with Lowe's and Target expected to report negative earnings estimates, while TJX Companies anticipates a 4% revenue growth [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - System-wide RevPAR grew by 2.5% year over year, driven by strong momentum from the end of the previous year [6][15] - Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was $795 million, up 6% year over year, exceeding the high end of guidance [15][21] - Diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was $1.72 [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group RevPAR increased by more than 6% year over year, supported by growth in urban markets and company meetings [6] - Business transient RevPAR increased by 2%, primarily from small and medium-sized businesses [6] - Leisure transient RevPAR increased by 1%, with robust performance in January followed by softening demand [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. RevPAR increased by 2.1%, driven by strong group performance [16] - In the Americas outside the U.S., RevPAR increased by 7% year over year, driven by key events in Mexico and Brazil [17] - In Europe, RevPAR grew by 2.6% year over year, with strong rate and occupancy growth in Continental Europe [18] - In the Middle East and Africa, RevPAR increased by 8.5% year over year, driven by strong performance in Saudi Arabia [18] - In the Asia Pacific region, RevPAR was flat year over year, with a decline of 3.1% in China [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to expand its development pipeline, with over 503,000 rooms, representing a 7% year-over-year increase [10][19] - The company aims for net unit growth of 6% to 7% in 2025, with nearly half of the pipeline under construction [12] - The luxury and lifestyle categories accounted for 30% of all hotel openings in the quarter, with significant growth in these portfolios [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that broader macro uncertainty intensified in March, impacting demand, particularly in leisure [6] - The company expects second quarter RevPAR to be approximately flat versus the prior year quarter, with full-year expectations of flat to up 2% [7][21] - Management expressed optimism about long-term opportunities despite current macroeconomic uncertainties, citing a resilient business model [13][36] Other Important Information - The company was named the number one best company to work for in the U.S. by Great Place to Work and Fortune for the second consecutive year [13] - A cash dividend of $0.15 per share was paid during the first quarter, with a total expected return of approximately $3.3 billion to shareholders for the year [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Perception of the recessionary environment - Management acknowledged the uncertainty in the market but expressed a belief that risks are more equally weighted than perceived, with potential for upside in the long term [30][36] Question: Development environment amidst uncertainty - Management indicated that while developers are cautious, there has not been a significant impact on current projects, and they remain optimistic about development momentum [44][50] Question: Impact of economic downturn on business - Management emphasized the resilience of the business model, with low leverage and strong liquidity, preparing for any potential downturn [56][58] Question: Economic intensity of deals in APAC and China - Management highlighted that the business in China is growing through joint ventures, with no capital investment required, and emphasized the strong demand for their brands in the region [63][66] Question: Strength in group bookings - Management noted that group bookings are expected to lead RevPAR growth, despite some short-term uncertainty affecting booking patterns [72][76] Question: Clarification on non RevPAR driven fees - Management clarified that a significant portion of the first quarter's performance was due to timing, but non RevPAR driven fees are expected to outperform throughout the year [86]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported system-wide RevPAR growth of 2.5% year over year, driven by strong momentum from the end of the previous year [6] - Adjusted EBITDA was $795 million in the first quarter, up 6% year over year, exceeding the high end of guidance [15] - Diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was $1.72 [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group RevPAR increased more than 6% year over year, supported by growth in urban markets and company meetings [6] - Business transient RevPAR increased 2%, primarily from small and medium-sized businesses, which make up roughly 85% of the business transient mix [6] - Leisure transient RevPAR increased 1%, with robust performance in January followed by softening demand patterns [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Americas outside the U.S., first quarter RevPAR increased 7% year over year, driven by key events in Mexico and Brazil [17] - In Europe, RevPAR grew 2.6% year over year, with strong rate and occupancy growth in Continental Europe [18] - In the Asia Pacific region, first quarter RevPAR was flat year over year, with China experiencing a decline of 3.1% [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to expand its development pipeline, ending the quarter with more than 503,000 rooms, representing a 7% year-over-year increase [10] - The luxury and lifestyle categories accounted for 30% of all hotel openings in the quarter, with these portfolios approaching 1,000 hotels globally [9] - The company aims to deliver net unit growth of 6% to 7% in 2025, with nearly half of its pipeline under construction [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that broader macro uncertainty intensified in March, impacting demand, particularly in leisure [6] - The company expects second quarter RevPAR to be approximately flat versus the prior year quarter, with full-year expectations of flat to up 2% [7] - Management expressed optimism about long-term opportunities supported by a capital-light business model and favorable megatrends in travel [13] Other Important Information - The company was named the number one best company to work for in the U.S. by Great Place to Work and Fortune for the second consecutive year [13] - A cash dividend of $0.15 per share was paid during the first quarter, with a total expected return of approximately $3.3 billion to shareholders for the year [21][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about recessionary environment - Management acknowledged the uncertainty in the market but expressed confidence in the stability of demand patterns and the potential for positive outcomes in the second half of the year [30][36] Question: Development environment amidst uncertainty - Management indicated that while developers are cautious, there has not been a significant impact on current projects, and they remain optimistic about future growth [44][50] Question: Impact of economic downturn on business - Management highlighted the resilience of the business model, emphasizing low leverage and strong access to liquidity, preparing for any potential downturn [56][58] Question: Economic intensity of deals in APAC and China - Management noted that the business in China continues to grow, with a focus on joint ventures and franchising, which allows for capital-light expansion [63][66] Question: Group performance outlook - Management remains optimistic about group performance leading the pack, despite some short-term booking softness due to uncertainty [72][76]

Group 1: Stock Performance - Shares of Dollar General, PepsiCo, and The Hershey Company fell by 5.4%, 2.9%, and 4% respectively on Wednesday [1] Group 2: Legislative Impact - The declines in these consumer staples stocks are likely due to the House of Representatives passing a budget reconciliation bill, which may lead to cuts in Medicaid and SNAP [2][5] - The budget resolution passed by a narrow margin of 217-215, with a late push from President Trump influencing the vote [3] - The resolution preserves the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 while proposing $2 trillion in spending cuts, with the Energy and Commerce committee directed to make the largest cuts totaling $880 billion [4][5] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Cuts to Medicaid and SNAP could pressure lower-income families financially, potentially decreasing sales for Dollar General, which derives about 60% of its sales from families earning less than $30,000 annually [7] - Lower-income families may reduce purchases of branded foods from Pepsi and Hershey, opting for lower-cost private-label items instead [8] Group 4: Economic Outlook - Analysts believe that cuts to programs benefiting lower-income Americans are likely, despite the budget resolution not specifically naming these cuts [10] - Austerity measures could negatively impact economic growth, with recent consumer sentiment surveys indicating a slowdown [11][12]