Market Trend & Prediction - The analysis suggests that all Bitcoin pairs are likely to reach range lows, potentially driven by liquidity conditions and retail consumer behavior [4][6][10] - The analyst anticipates a potential 20% drop in Bitcoin valuations for altcoins [13][17] - The report notes a possible short-term bounce in the summer, but the eventual outcome is expected to be the range lows [22][23] - The analysis draws parallels to historical data, suggesting a potential low in late October or early November [9][10] Macroeconomic Factors - The analyst suggests that a low unemployment rate of 41% might delay interest rate cuts, potentially impacting higher-risk assets [7][21] - The report indicates a shift in the probability of rate cuts, with a reduced chance of a cut in July (from 25% to 5%) and an increased chance of no cut in September (from 5% to 333%) [7] Altcoin Performance - The analysis highlights that while altcoins may have performed better in USD valuations, they have underperformed against Bitcoin [14][15] - The report questions the value of altcoin USD gains if they continue to bleed against Bitcoin [16] Technical Analysis - The analyst points out that every rally has met with a lower high, indicating a potential breakdown [17] - The analysis references specific Bitcoin pair valuations, noting a move from 031% to a potential 025% [18] - The report includes USDC in the analysis, showing a valuation of 029% and suggesting further downside [19]

Labor Market Overview - Unemployment rate decreased to 41% [1] - Job creation was significantly influenced by state and local government hiring [2] - Monthly job reports can be volatile and influenced by factors such as teacher hiring cycles [3] Economic Outlook & Policy Impact - Tax bill passage is expected to accelerate private sector growth [4] - Companies have been hesitant to invest due to uncertainty surrounding the tax bill [4] - Full expensing on equipment and factories is anticipated to stimulate capital expenditure (capex) [5] - Increased capex is expected to lead to construction jobs and subsequent hiring for new plants [5]

Employment & Economic Growth - The US economy added 147,000 jobs in June, exceeding expectations [1] - The unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.1% [1][4] - Average hourly earnings show a 3.7% growth over the past year, indicating compensation for employed individuals [2][11] - The first quarter GDP number came in at 0.5%, indicating a not strong but not weak economy [15] Sector Performance - State government jobs were a significant driver of job growth, contrasting with weaker private sector job growth [3] - The healthcare sector, including residential care facilities and nursing homes, consistently drives employment [6] - Federal government jobs decreased by 7,000, totaling 69,000 cuts so far [5] - Mining, quarrying, manufacturing, and wholesale trade experienced little change, aligning with expectations given trade policy uncertainty [7] Monetary Policy & Consumer Behavior - The possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month decreased from 25% to approximately 2%, suggesting a relatively strong economy [8] - Wage growth was slightly below expectations at 0.2% compared to the expected 0.3% [10] - There's a bifurcation in the labor market, with employed individuals experiencing decent wage growth, while recently unemployed or graduated individuals face some weakness [12] - Consumers are saving more, potentially slowing down spending and economic activity [13][14]

Uh Rick Santelli is at the CME in Chicago. I don't know what you think about July possibly being a live meeting based on these numbers, but sub 50 um in terms of additions seems to be the uh the number that could make it live in the markets. Anything's possible.We'll know shortly. Obviously, this is the big June job job jobs report. I wouldn't look for this to make an easy more likely 147,000 jobs.Definitely bit better than expected. No matter what your range was, whether it was closer to 100 or 115,000, it ...

RT Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion)LIVE NOW: It’s Jobs Day! Will sluggish hiring translate into a higher unemployment rate? 📊🎥 Tune in as @JonathanJLevin joins @KRooneyVera and @foxjust for analysis of the data https://t.co/YQY6XVj8Nj ...

Forecasters anticipate a monthly report on US employment will show slower hiring and the highest unemployment rate since 2021 as the Trump administration’s trade and immigration policy shifts start to leave an imprint https://t.co/bWU5uDfHjD ...

Economic Indicators - Full employment occurs when all willing workers are employed, resulting in a 0% unemployment rate [1]

You know, from our standpoint, what I can say is that the the US economy is in solid shape. Inflation has come down. The unemployment rate remains at 4.2%.As I mentioned, real wages are moving up. It's a it's a good uh job creation is at a healthy level. Unemployment, again, as I said, low labor force participation in a good place.So, and what we're waiting for to reduce rates is is to understand what will happen with with really the tariff inflation. And uh there's a lot of uncertainty about that. Every fo ...

Inflation Outlook - The Fed acknowledges upside risks to inflation, with base effects likely to worsen inflation numbers in upcoming meetings and potentially by year-end [3][4][5] - Crude oil price increases of $10, representing a 20% rise, could add approximately 04 percentage points to the headline CPI if sustained [5][6] - Tariffs are viewed as inflationary by Powell, potentially leading to margin compression and lowered earnings estimates [6][7] - The bond market anticipates the Fed will cut rates even if inflation remains above 3% between now and year-end [9] Monetary Policy & Employment - The Fed's dual mandate faces increasing tensions, potentially requiring a choice between fighting rising unemployment and fighting rising inflation [7] - The market believes the Fed is more likely to prioritize addressing rising unemployment over fighting inflation, even if inflation is moderately above 3% [8][14] - No discussion of rate hikes suggests a consensus within the Fed that the next move in rates will be lower [14] Recession Indicators - A one-year moving average of the twos 10's yield curve turning positive has historically preceded recessions and is currently above its 12-month moving average [9] - The U3 unemployment rate crossing above its three-year moving average has historically signaled the front end of a recession, which has already occurred but is not yet accelerating [10] - Rising continuing claims foreshadow a potential increase in the U3 unemployment rate [11][12] Market Dynamics - The bond market is signaling expectations of rate cuts through a steepening yield curve, with long rates rising more substantially than short-term rates [8][9] - The yield curve steepening is a trend that is expected to continue, with the Fed likely to keep pressure lower on short-term interest rates [13]

>> Mark. Mark. Thank you.>> Chairman Powell. Mark Hamrick with bank rate. What is the view about the growing amount of slack in the job market, including the softening in payrolls, the forecast of a modest rise in the unemployment rate and the ability of workers to demand wage hikes or not.In this environment where you have inflation surging. >> I don't you don't see you don't really see unemployment going up. You don't see increased slack, really.I mean, at the margin, remember you're at 4.2% unemployment. ...