Welcome back. We have some breaking news we're following. The September jobs reports finally here, marking an end to the jobs data blackout brought on by the government shutdown.And this report shows the US economy added 119,000 jobs in September. More than 50,000 more than anticipated. The unemployment rate ticking up slightly to 4.4%.That's actually the highest it's been in about four years. The Bureau of Labor Statistics says it will not release an October report, saying there was a lack of household dat ...

Employment Growth - Non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, the highest since April's 158,000 increase [1] - The previous month's (August) job growth was revised down from 22,000 to a loss of 4,000 jobs [1] Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 43% to 44% [1] - The last time the unemployment rate was at or above this level was in October 2021, at 45% [2] Labor Force Participation - The labor force participation rate increased to 624%, matching the level in May [2] - To find a higher labor force participation rate, one must go back to April of this year, when it was 626% [2] Average Hourly Earnings - Month-over-month average hourly earnings increased by 021% [3] - This increase is considered weak, as expectations were for a 03% increase, and the June increase was 02% [3] - A lower month-over-month increase was last seen in August 2023, at 011% [3] - Year-over-year average hourly earnings increased from 37% to 38% [3] - This 38% increase is the highest since July's 39% increase [3] - The high water mark for year-over-year average hourly earnings for the year remains at 39%, observed for four months [3]

While moments ago, the September jobs report was finally released after it had been delayed by the government shutdown. It showed that employers added 119,000 jobs. That is more than expected.>> But the unemployment rate also increased to 4.4% which is the highest it's been since October 2021. We're looking confused here at the table. So thankfully we have co-anchor of CNBC Squawkbox and a New York Times colonist Andrew Rossin to explain it to us.And we should note that his book 1929 inside the greatest cra ...

We are just seconds away from that delayed jobs number. We're watching the futures this morning. They're up sharply ahead of that because of what we heard from Nvidia last night.Dow futures up by about 250 points. S&P futures up by over 80. The Nasdaq now indicated up by about 5 or 425 points.Take a look at what's been happening in the Treasury market. We have seen higher yields. The 10ear sitting right at 415.The 2-year at 361 ahead of all of this. Rick Santelli is standing by at the CME in Chicago. And Ri ...

Macroeconomic Analysis - Unemployment rate exceeds expectations, suggesting a potential weakening in labor markets [1] - The Federal Reserve (FED) might interpret the unemployment data as a signal to implement Quantitative Easing (QE) and rate cuts [1] - The market anticipates the release of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data tomorrow [1]

Bloomberg has learned that allies of Keir Starmer have privately accused UK Health Secretary Wes Streeting of plotting to replace the Prime Minister. For more on this palace intrigue, I'm joined by Bloomberg's Lizzie Bird. And Lizzie, what do we know at this point.We have to thank our UK political editor Alex Wickham for this scoop. But it's not the first time the West Street King's name has been mentioned. He's younger than Starmer. At 42, he's seen as charismatic.He's from a council estate in East London. ...

Market Trends & Optimism - Major indices are recovering from last week's losses due to optimism about the end of the government shutdown and easing AI trade concerns [1] - Analyst consensus expectations for 2026 are being raised, indicating positive market sentiment [4] Earnings Performance - Earnings have been phenomenal, with a high-quality meltup based on fundamentals [3] - First and second quarters saw low double-digit year-over-year increases, exceeding initial expectations of low to mid-single digits [4] - Third-quarter S&P 500 earnings are projected to increase by approximately 14%, significantly higher than the initial estimate of 65% [5] Productivity & Labor Market - Productivity is booming, contributing to strong earnings, as evidenced by revised-up real GDP numbers and revised-down labor market numbers [6] - Layoffs are occurring primarily in technology and warehousing sectors, largely driven by productivity improvements [7] - Structural problems exist in the labor market, with slower labor supply growth, but AI and management tools are augmenting productivity, leading to potentially low unemployment rates [9][10] Economic Outlook - The speaker has been optimistic about a "roaring 2020s" scenario since 2020 and feels increasingly confident about it [8][9] - Real wages and household consumption are at all-time record highs, despite some individuals facing economic struggles [13]

RT Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien)Ok, let’s get one thing straight…Delinquency rates on credit card loans (or otherwise) are not a leading indicator. The ISM is not a leading indicator. PMIs are not a leading indicator. Heavy truck sales are not a leading indicator. Job openings are not a leading indicator. Consumer confidence is not a leading indicator. Small business confidence is not a leading indicator. Durable goods orders are not a leading indicator. Capital goods orders are not a leading indicator ...

Core Insights - Job creation in the U.S. economy is significantly slowing, with the September jobs report delayed due to the government shutdown [1][7] - Private data sources indicate a minimal increase in employment, primarily in the education and healthcare sectors, with a reported gain of 60,000 jobs in September [2][5] - The overall job market appears weak, with private estimates suggesting essentially no job growth for the month [5][7] Job Market Analysis - The September jobs report from ADP indicated a loss of 32,000 jobs, with gains concentrated in large healthcare companies, while smaller firms are struggling due to tariffs and immigration policies [5][6] - Revelio Labs' data shows job growth concentrated in California, New York, and Massachusetts, but recent revisions suggest that the initial estimates may be overstated [2][5] - The Conference Board's consumer confidence survey indicates a decline in job availability perceptions, suggesting a potential rise in unemployment [6] Economic Implications - The absence of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data complicates the assessment of economic health and policy-making [7] - Economists had anticipated a gain of 50,000 jobs in the BLS report, with an unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.3% [10] - Once the government shutdown concludes, the BLS will release the delayed September jobs report, although there may be a lag in publication [11]

Chicago Fed President Goulsby on squawkbox this morning defending the validity of BLS data and the shortcomings of relying just on private sector sources. Joining us here at Post9 this morning to talk more about it, Goldman Sachs chief economist John Hotsi is who normally joins us on jobs Friday. A little bit different today.It's a jobs Friday except they're not jobs. Yes. Do you do you feel like you're flying blind or no.He seems to think that um BLS is still the gold standard. Oh, for sure. It's a signifi ...