Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials are divided on the direction of interest rates, with some advocating for cuts due to a weakening labor market, while others, like Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, argue that inflation remains too high to justify further reductions [1][6][8]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted on October 29 to reduce the benchmark Federal Funds Rate target to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking a quarter percentage point cut, which is the second reduction in two months aimed at supporting a slowing labor market [9]. - Schmid, a monetary hawk, opposed the interest rate cut, arguing that inflation is still too high and that rates should be held to manage demand and reduce price pressures [7][11]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September showed a year-over-year increase of 3%, which was cooler than expected, but inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target [5]. - The most recent unemployment figure stands at 4.3%, indicating that the labor market is "largely in balance" according to Schmid [10]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions Among Officials - Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged rising concerns about inflation among some policymakers, indicating that another interest rate cut in December is not guaranteed [6]. - Fed Governor Stephen I. Miran voted against the quarter percentage point cut, advocating for a more aggressive half percentage point reduction to prevent stagflation or recession [7].

Core Insights - Data centers are driving up local energy prices, influencing local politics and community responses [1] Group 1: Impact on Energy Prices - The increasing demand from data centers is leading to higher energy bills for local residents [1] - Local governments are facing pressure to address the rising costs associated with energy consumption from data centers [1] Group 2: Political Implications - The surge in energy prices due to data centers is becoming a significant political issue in affected areas [1] - Local communities are reacting to the financial burden imposed by the energy demands of data centers [1]

Macroeconomic Perspective - Inflation is more severe than perceived [1] Bitcoin Analysis - Bitcoin's value proposition is underestimated [1]

Average power bills in America are up around 40% since 2019, well above inflation. Are data centres to blame? In Georgia, the main culprit is more prosaic https://t.co/51zSNBHWc1 ...

Global Trade & Economy - Global trade is becoming increasingly complex due to strategic decoupling, nearshoring, and tariffs [1] - Supply chains are under pressure, leading to rising inflation [1] - Market fragmentation is occurring [1] - The question of whether the world is truly deglobalizing is being raised [1] Bloomberg New Economy Forum - The Bloomberg New Economy Forum will be held live in Singapore from November 19-21 [1] - The forum will cover the aforementioned topics related to the global economy [1]

Debasement Trade Overview - The debasement trade involves rotating out of fiat currencies into assets like stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and real estate due to concerns about the declining purchasing power of cash and government bonds [4] - The core idea is that investors prefer owning productive or scarce assets over holding fiat currencies that are perceived to be losing value [4] - Debasement doesn't necessarily mean hyperinflation or currency collapse, but rather persistent deficits and a policy bias towards managing debt [12] Asset Class Implications - US stocks benefit as owning businesses becomes more attractive when cash is perceived to be melting, particularly those driving economic growth [5] - Gold serves as a traditional hedge against money printing and a safe haven amid geopolitical uncertainty, recently reaching all-time highs [7][8] - Bitcoin is viewed as digital gold with a limited supply of 21 million, gaining mainstream acceptance through ETFs [9][10] - Real estate is considered a physical, scarce asset that provides essential shelter, maintaining high prices despite fluctuating mortgage rates [11] Drivers of the Debasement Trade - Fiscal dominance, where large government deficits and rising debt servicing costs constrain central bank monetary policy, is a key factor [14] - US net interest costs on debt are projected to exceed defense costs in 2025, signaling a significant burden [16] - Global debt stands at over 235% of GDP, driven by public borrowing, making the debasement trade feel rational [18] Bull Case for Continuation - History suggests governments tend to rely on policies that lower real rates to manage heavy debt, a concept known as financial repression [22] - Structural flows, such as US ETF flows projected at $14 trillion in 2025 and automatic enrollment in 401(k) plans, support equity markets [23][24] - Central banks' consistent gold purchases, exceeding 1,000 tons for three consecutive years, indicate a long-term reweighting [27] Counterarguments and Nuances - Market moves may be driven by market cycle exuberance and sentiment rather than solely by debasement concerns [35][37] - Concentration in a few mega-cap stocks can explain market highs without relying on a macro thesis [38] - Liquidity conditions, such as the Fed's pivot on rate hikes and potential end to quantitative tightening, may be a more significant factor [40]

President MLE's historic victory on Sunday in Argentine elections means he has a stronger position in his Congress and another opportunity to administer his medicine seeking economic health for a country that has been struggling for a long time. Hans Humes, CEO of Greylock Capital, is a longtime investor in Argentina. >> I think the entire country understands what's what has held them back um for decades now.Um and the they're willing to take a certain amount of personal pain. Now, we have to see how this t ...

Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates for the second time was viewed as the right move, prioritizing inflation control over unemployment concerns [1][2] - The Fed signaled a return to data dependence, avoiding commitment to further rate cuts [2] - Losing credibility around inflation, especially with massive deficits and political pressure, poses a greater risk than a potential slowdown [3] - Disagreements within the Fed, reflected in dissents, highlight the confusion in the economic picture [9][10] - The Fed will stop the roll off of the balance sheet as of December 1st [11] Inflation and Tariffs - Arguments suggesting that inflation is near the 2% target if tariffs are excluded are viewed skeptically, reminiscent of the "transitory inflation" idea [6][7][8] - Cherry-picking components that have risen is not considered a sound method for analyzing inflation [9] US-China Relations - Avoiding a spiral into massive confrontation and economic conflict with China is a positive outcome [16] - The impact of US-China relations on the US economy will not be determined by soybean sales [17] - Technology, particularly competition in artificial intelligence, remains a key issue in US-China relations [17] - Export controls on advanced microchips between the US and China present a difficult set of issues, balancing national defense with technological development [19][20]

RT The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)Grocery prices are surging:US grocery prices have risen +5.3% YoY as of July 2025.To put this differently, if a family spends ~$1,000 a month or $12,000 a year on groceries, this marks an average annual increase of +$636.The sharpest YoY increases were seen in Pennsylvania at +8.2%, Vermont at +7.0%, and Maryland at +7.0%.This was followed by West Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, with increases of +6.9%, +6.8%, and +6.6%, respectively.Concerningly, grocery pri ...

The Federal Reserve is letting up too soon on its war against inflation, according to an increasingly vocal contingent of Fed officials. https://t.co/PMtGlFhM0Y ...