Core Viewpoint - LN's retail sell-through in 2Q25 increased by only 1% YoY, which is weaker than expectations and reflects a challenging competitive landscape for sportswear brands in 1H25 [1][2]. Retail Performance - Overall retail sell-through of LN was up only 1% YoY in 2Q25, with offline retail experiencing a mid-single-digit decline due to sluggish client traffic and a 18% year-to-date decrease in points of sale [2]. - E-commerce performance was also below expectations, with only a mid-single-digit increase YoY, indicating a quarter-over-quarter deterioration [2]. - Retail discounts have steepened as LN attempts to maintain a healthier inventory balance, which stood at 4 months of sales by the end of 2Q [2]. Management Insights - Management noted that sluggish performance continued into 3Q QTD, with weakness persisting after the "618" sales campaign, indicating increased competition among sportswear brands [3]. - It is believed that maintaining the gross profit margin (GPM) at the 2024 level of 49.4% will be challenging due to ongoing pressures [3]. Product-Specific Challenges - Sales of LN's basketball products have declined by over 20% YoY, which is significant as basketball accounted for 21% of retail sales in 2024 [4]. - Although the endorsement of Yang Hansen, a newly drafted Chinese NBA player, could support LN's sales, the overall impact is expected to be limited due to other brands gaining market share through stronger endorsements [4]. Earnings Guidance and Valuation - There is a risk of downward revision in guidance, particularly if LN increases its marketing efforts in 4Q25 in conjunction with its partnership with the Chinese Olympics Committee [5]. - FY25-27E EPS estimates have been lowered by 5-7% due to anticipated weaker GPM and operating deleverage, with the target price adjusted to HK$15.7 based on a 13x adjusted 2025E EPS [6]. Overall Outlook - LN is seen as vulnerable to higher risks of earnings weakness in 2025 and likely into 1H26, although the current valuation is considered fair at low-teens forward P/E and ROE [7]. - The recommendation remains HOLD due to a lack of near-term earnings catalysts [1][7].

Group 1: Company Performance - AngloGold Ashanti's recent trading session ended at $47.46, reflecting a -1.06% change from the previous day's closing price, underperforming compared to the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.4% [1] - The company's shares experienced a loss of 3.44% over the previous month, lagging behind the Basic Materials sector's gain of 2.16% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.97% [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - AngloGold Ashanti is projected to report earnings of $1.31 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 118.33%, with revenue expected to be $2.32 billion, showing a 67.73% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] - For the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $4.99 per share and revenue of $8.85 billion, representing changes of +125.79% and +52.81%, respectively, compared to the previous year [3] Group 3: Analyst Sentiment - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for AngloGold Ashanti are important as they reflect changing near-term business trends, with positive estimate revisions indicating analyst optimism about the company's profitability [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), shows that AngloGold Ashanti currently holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), with a 1.56% upward shift in the consensus EPS estimate over the past month [6] Group 4: Valuation Metrics - AngloGold Ashanti is currently traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 9.62, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 13.31 [7] - The Mining - Gold industry, part of the Basic Materials sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 15, placing it in the top 7% of over 250 industries [7]

Token Buyback & Revenue Share - Pump 团队已开始在公开市场上回购 $PUMP [1] - $PUMP 持有者根据 180 天的追踪数据，每天获得 538,000 美元的回购（假设 25% 的收入分成）[1] - 相当于每年 1.966 亿美元直接流向代币持有者 [1] Valuation - 当前估值：60 亿美元完全稀释估值 (FDV) / 21.2 亿美元市值 [1] - 市值/收益 (MC/E)：10.78 倍（180 天）[1] - 完全稀释估值/收益 (FDV/E)：30.51 倍（180 天）[1] Peer Comparison - $JUP 的市值/收益 (MC/E) 为 14.17 倍，完全稀释估值/收益 (FDV/E) 为 32.33 倍 [1] - $RAY 的市值/收益 (MC/E) 为 13.09 倍，完全稀释估值/收益 (FDV/E) 为 27.08 倍 [1] - $HYPE 的市值/收益 (MC/E) 为 26.78 倍，完全稀释估值/收益 (FDV/E) 为 80.24 倍 [1] - 对比显示 Pump 的交易价格存在折价 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Montage with a 12-month target price of Rmb106.00, indicating an upside potential of 27.7% from the current price of Rmb83.03 [17][15]. Core Insights - Montage's 2Q25 revenue is expected to grow by 52% year-over-year (YoY) to Rmb1.4 billion, driven by the increasing demand for DDR5 and Gen-3 interface integrated circuits (ICs) [1][4]. - The net income (NI) guidance for 2Q25 is projected to be between Rmb575 million and Rmb675 million, representing a YoY growth of 62% to 90%, which is 18% higher than previous estimates [1][4]. - The company's profitability is improving due to a shift towards higher-margin DDR5 interface ICs and enhanced operating leverage [1][4]. Revenue and Earnings Projections - The report revises earnings estimates upward by 5% for 2025, 3% for 2026, and 3% for 2027, reflecting higher revenues from DDR5 interface ICs and an improved product mix [5][8]. - Revenue projections for Montage are Rmb5.775 billion for 2025, Rmb8.366 billion for 2026, and Rmb10.926 billion for 2027, with corresponding gross profits of Rmb3.489 billion, Rmb5.059 billion, and Rmb6.613 billion respectively [8][17]. Margin Analysis - The report anticipates an increase in gross margin from 60.4% in 2025 to 60.5% in 2027, alongside an improvement in operating margin from 38.9% to 45.1% over the same period [8][9]. - The net margin is expected to rise from 41.4% in 2025 to 43.4% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The strong revenue growth is attributed to the rising penetration of DDR5 interface ICs and the increasing contribution from Gen-2 and Gen-3 products, with expectations that Gen-3 shipments will surpass Gen-2 by 4Q25/1Q26 [4][5]. - The company is set to begin production of Gen-4 DDR5 interface ICs, which are anticipated to offer better pricing and margins [4][5].

Venture Capital Industry Trends - The venture-capital industry is transforming due to the pursuit of higher valuations [1] - This transformation is making a volatile business riskier [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the author's extensive background in finance, particularly in corporate finance, M&A, and investment analysis, with a focus on real estate, renewable energy, and equity markets [1] Group 1: Professional Background - The author holds a Master's degree in Banking & Finance from Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, indicating a strong academic foundation in finance [1] - The author's experience spans over 10 years in investment banking, showcasing a deep understanding of financial markets and investment strategies [1] Group 2: Areas of Expertise - The author specializes in financial modeling, valuation, and qualitative analysis, which are critical skills for assessing investment opportunities [1] - The focus on real estate and renewable energy suggests a strategic interest in sectors that are likely to experience growth and transformation [1] Group 3: Engagement and Goals - The author aims to share insights and analysis on companies of interest with a global audience, indicating a commitment to knowledge sharing and community engagement [1] - There is an emphasis on continuous improvement and informed decision-making, reflecting a proactive approach to investment analysis [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Accelink Technologies is "Sell" with a target price of Rmb24.6, indicating an expected share price return of -46.7% [2][5]. Core Insights - Accelink Technologies expects a net profit growth of 55%-95% YoY for 1H25, with guidance of Rmb323 million to Rmb407 million, driven by strong optical transceiver demand and an improved product mix [1][4]. - The mid-point of the 2Q25 earnings guidance at Rmb215 million is slightly below expectations, suggesting potential downside risk to the share price, which is currently trading at a high valuation of 37x FY25 PE compared to peers at around high-teens [1][5]. - The valuation of Accelink is considered demanding due to lower profitability in the domestic transceiver market and relatively lower earnings growth compared to competitors like Innolight and Eoptolink [1][5]. Summary by Sections Earnings Guidance - For 2Q25, Accelink's net profit guidance is Rmb215 million, a 64% increase from Rmb131 million in 2Q24, while for 1H25, the guidance is Rmb365 million, a 75% increase from Rmb209 million in 1H24 [4]. Valuation - The target price of Rmb24.6 is based on a P/E multiple of 20.0x 2025E EPS, which is one standard deviation below the stock's five-year historical forward PER [5]. Market Capitalization - Accelink Technologies has a market capitalization of Rmb37,228 million (approximately US$5,196 million) [2].

Venture Capital & Startups - Current generation of buzzy start-ups' stratospheric valuations may be overinflated [1] - A venture drought could follow if valuations are overinflated [1]

Fundraising - PumpFun 在 12 分钟内融资 6 亿美元，估值达到 40 亿美元 [1] Market Sentiment - 行业认为人们没有从过去的经验中吸取教训 [1]

Market Overview & Strategy - Investors are seemingly overlooking tariffs, focusing on earnings and the Federal Reserve, though potential risks remain [1][2] - The economy shows signs of weakening, with less than 50% of industries hiring in the past 3 months and consumer spending growth slowing [5][6] - The S&P 500's valuation at 245 times trailing 12-month earnings and 23 times forward 12-month earnings, with an expected 7% growth, appears optimistic [8] - Investors should broaden horizons, considering small-cap stocks, which are at their second-lowest valuation relative to large-cap stocks in 31 years [9] - International stocks are up around 20% year-to-date and are expected to continue performing well, potentially boosted by a weaker dollar [10] Small Cap & Interest Rates - Small-cap stocks present opportunities, especially with deregulation and lower tax rates potentially stimulating growth [9][13] - While historically lower rates reset the cycle for small caps, companies are adapting to current rates [12][13] - Investors with a time horizon beyond the next three minutes should consider small-cap stocks for the next 3-7 years, anticipating a cycle of different market leadership [15] Earnings Season & Forward Guidance - Forward guidance is crucial for investors to assess the impact of tariffs on individual companies [16] - Investors should pay attention to what they are paying for earnings revisions, as some large-cap stocks outside of technology trade at 40-60 times forward earnings [17] - A return to basics is advised, focusing on a margin of safety, valuation, and macroeconomic headwinds that may favor international and small/mid-cap stocks [18] Market Pullback & Investor Behavior - Historically, after reaching market peaks, the market continues to rise over 12-18 months, averaging 26%, but with drawdowns of 7% and 12-15% [20][21] - Long-term investors are advised to stay the course, while active investors should add optionality to their portfolios, considering low valuation stocks or hedging strategies using options [23][24] - A market dip is expected to be bought by retail investors, consistent with post-2020 behavior [27][28] AI & Tariff Impact - Structural AI leaders continue to be attractive, with adoption occurring across industries for both cost-cutting and revenue enhancement [33] - The market's shrug in response to recent tariff letters may be premature, given the potential for deals to be struck before August 1st [36][37]