M&A Trends in Tech - Acqui-hires are increasingly common in AI, with companies valuing the talent and expertise of acquired teams [2][3][4] - Smaller investments and acqui-hires can be viewed more favorably by regulators from an antitrust perspective [5] - M&A activity is picking up, with buyers in AI and digital infrastructure becoming more active [8] - Private equity firms have significant dry powder and are looking for deals [9] Factors Influencing M&A - Geopolitical conditions, tariffs, and events in Ukraine and the Middle East are key factors [10] - Interest rates are a key determinant of M&A activity; stabilization or improvement in the forward curve could boost deals [10] - Predictability in antitrust regulations is adding positive momentum to the M&A outlook [11] - Improvement in IPO markets is needed to provide private equity firms with exit opportunities [12] - A disconnect between buyers and sellers on valuation, influenced by interest rates, remains a challenge [14] Specific Areas of Activity - Traditional media companies are restructuring and reevaluating their portfolios due to the disruption of streaming [16] - Sports have become an area of growth and interest, driving up sports franchise values [17] - AI is a dynamic force in M&A, particularly in specialized hardware and hardware integration (software meeting silicon) [18] - Data center deals have doubled in 2024 compared to 2023, driven by the need for greater infrastructure and cloud services [21] Regulatory and Political Environment - The DOJ and FTC are signaling an openness to considering transactions with remedies [24] - The administration is focused on "America First" initiatives and ensuring equality of messaging, particularly for conservative viewpoints [26] - Companies need to understand the administration's objectives and incorporate government relations early in the deal planning [27] - Regulators are focused on tech, particularly regarding free speech issues, but are showing optimism by considering remedies [30]

I got a call from Congress last night. Sir, there's a problem. I said, what is it.Money is pouring in. We don't know how to account for it. I said, check the tariffs.$88 billion came in from tariffs, no inflation, and it's going to get even more. So, I know what I'm doing. So, we have a a stupid person, frankly, at the Fed.He probably won't cut today. Europe had 10 cuts and we had none. And I guess he's a political guy.I don't know. He's a political guy who's not a smart person. But he's costing the country ...

Key Insights - Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) is well-positioned for growth due to strategic acquisitions, higher interest rates, a strong balance sheet, and a solid Credit Card segment, although it faces challenges from elevated expenses and worsening asset quality [1][9] Growth Drivers - Capital One has engaged in strategic acquisitions, including the acquisition of Discover Financial for $35.3 billion in May, aimed at transforming the credit card industry and unlocking shareholder value [2] - In 2023, COF acquired Velocity Black to enhance customer experience through innovative technology, reflecting efforts for revenue diversification [3] - Despite a marginal revenue dip in 2020, COF has a projected five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5% for revenues and 4.3% for net loans held for investment (LHI) from 2019 to 2024 [4] Revenue Trends - Credit Card segment revenues are projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.4%, while total revenues are expected to see a CAGR of 5.5% by 2027 [7] - Net interest income (NII) is projected to grow by 4.5%, 4.9%, and 3.5% in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net interest margin (NIM) expected to reach 7.03% in 2025 [12] Financial Position - As of March 31, 2025, COF's total debt was $41.8 billion, with cash and cash equivalents at $48.6 billion, indicating a strong liquidity profile [12][14] - The company has investment-grade credit ratings from major agencies, enhancing its access to debt markets [13] Credit Card Segment Operations - The Domestic Credit Card division, which accounts for 94.9% of net revenues, is expected to see revenue increases of 3% in 2025, 3.1% in 2026, and 7.2% in 2027 [16] Challenges - Capital One faces deteriorating asset quality, with provisions for credit losses and net charge-offs (NCOs) rising, reflecting a 13.4% CAGR over the past five years [19] - The company has experienced a 6.8% CAGR in expenses over the last five years, driven by increased marketing costs and inflationary pressures [21] - Total non-interest expenses are projected to increase by 12.5% in 2025, with an estimated efficiency ratio of 59.33% [25]

Market Overview - Market futures are rallying due to the absence of negative news, with tech stocks reaching record highs and the S&P 500 only about -1% below all-time highs [1] - The Dow gained +507 points (+0.62%), the S&P 500 rose +67 points (+1.11%), and the Nasdaq led with a gain of +281 points (+1.43%) [2] - Oil prices are declining, with WTI at $64.91 per barrel and Brent crude at $65.08 per barrel, down from $65 and $67 respectively [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains firm on keeping interest rates steady despite pressure from Republican members, citing cooling inflation but potential price increases from upcoming tariffs [4] - Employment numbers are softening but not indicating a sudden rise in job losses, with Continuing Jobless Claims not yet reaching 2 million per week [5] Company Performance: FedEx - FedEx reported fiscal Q3 earnings of $6.07 per share, exceeding the Zacks consensus of $5.93, with revenues of $22.22 billion surpassing expectations of $21.73 billion [6] - Both Express and Freight businesses outperformed, with increased export volume indicating a pull-forward of activity ahead of upcoming tariffs [7] - Next-quarter earnings guidance has been lowered to $3.40-4.00 per share, below the Zacks consensus of $4.05, leading to a stock decline of -4.4% [7]

Well, joining us now is BNY Investments chief economist and former Federal Reserve Director of the Division of Monetary Affairs, Vincent Reinhardt. It's great to have you back on the show. Welcome.I want to start right there because we've had a lot of Fed speak to start the week and certainly Powell with his semiannual testimony on the Hill, part one of two days here today. The market seems to be taking his messaging maybe slightly more doubbish. But I'm not sure it's the right way to take his messaging, bu ...

So, one of the very valid criticisms of the Federal Reserve, where I worked for nearly a decade, is that they're looking at very lagged data that really is backward-looking as opposed to trying to pay closer attention to some of the especially rich realtime economic data that we have in hand right now. Unfortunately, it feels like the Fed is pretty much what we call behind the curve. So, they should be lowering interest rates and yet because they're driving using the rearview mirror, they're late to the gam ...

We see the same thing you do in the in the housing market. It's it's tough. There's not uh people are locked in.They can't afford to get out of their house because the cost of getting to a higher mortgage higher higher price mortgage would be would be a lot. So, um the best thing we can do though is to get inflation sustainably down to 2% and have it stay there over a long period of time. A long period of time.And that that is really what we can offer to them. Um, and I think, you know, to so if you go back ...

Federal Reserve Policy & Interest Rates - Fed Chair Jay Powell indicated no rush to cut rates, refraining from pointing to any specific meeting for a potential rate cut, including July [2][3] - The market anticipates the Fed will cut rates this year if economic conditions, such as lower inflation or rising unemployment, warrant it, but the timing remains uncertain [7][12] - The majority on the committee still forecasts two rate cuts this year [12] Tariffs & Economic Impact - Tariffs' impact is expected to start showing up in economic data this month, potentially pushing up prices [4][9] - The effects of tariffs depend on their ultimate level and expectations, which reached a peak in April and have since declined [9] - The Fed is closely monitoring fiscal policy and its potential effects on the economy, refraining from commenting directly on the President's policies [8] Geopolitical Risks & Cease-fire - Geopolitical risks, including the fragile cease-fire between Israel and Iran, introduce uncertainty for policymakers [4][14] - The Fed is taking a cautious approach, monitoring geopolitical developments day by day, as the situation remains chaotic [15] - A fragile cease-fire has been reached between Israel and Iran [14][44] US Foreign Policy & International Relations - President Trump expressed frustration with perceived violations of the cease-fire by both Israel and Iran [23][44] - The US military action against Iranian nuclear facilities aimed to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon [27][31] - The President is pushing NATO allies to increase defense spending, aiming for a 5% quota [19][93] New York City Mayoral Primary - Ranked-choice voting is in play for the Democratic mayoral primary, potentially leading to multiple rounds of tabulation [73][76] - Housing is a top issue for New York City voters, influencing the campaigns and their messaging [81] - Weather in New York City, with temperatures reaching 102 degrees Fahrenheit, could potentially affect voter turnout [73]

Well, KB Home cutting its revenue outlook for the year after reporting weak second quarter results. This is the housing market. It remains sluggish with existing home sales seeing their worst May since 2009.Joining me now, we've got Meredith Whitney, Meredith Whitney Advisory Group CEO. Meredith, good to have you back on Yahoo Finance with us. We we just heard remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Pal that he plans to keep rates on hold.So, what is the risk that that poses to the housing market. Well, the housing m ...

really, on that. We're not seeing it yet, but we. >> Gentleman's time has expired.>> Thank you. Chairman. >> Yield back.Thank you, Mr. . Chairman. The gentleman from new Jersey recognized for five minutes.>> Thank you, Mr. . Chairman. >> Chairman Powell, as a member of the Intelligence Committee, I'm deeply concerned about the threat of Iranian cyber attacks on our financial system as retaliation for our strikes on their nuclear facilities and its cyber security report.Last year, the fed acknowledged that c ...