Demand for the sale of 30-year bonds was hit by concern over a potential sovereign rating downgrade and uncertainty over the outlook for interest rates https://t.co/VKwQuKyRLB ...

New Zealand’s central bank cut interest rates to a fresh three-year low and signaled the possibility of further easing to support a nascent economic recovery https://t.co/s6DHrmry2j ...

Economic Overview - The PPI report for September indicates that wholesale prices are rising less than expected, suggesting a potential cooling of inflation [1] - Consumer confidence has hit its lowest level since April, raising concerns about the labor market [1][11] - Retail sales numbers have softened, following a previous gain of 610 million [1][3] Inflation and Federal Reserve - The Atlanta Fed's growth estimate is at 4%, supported by strong consumer spending and capital expenditures [3][7] - Commodity prices are near a 52-week low, and energy prices are moderating, contributing to a positive inflation outlook [4] - The Fed is expected to respond to the improving inflation outlook and the current rates being above neutral [4][9] Labor Market Insights - The labor market has shown signs of weakness, with significant downward revisions in job numbers for 2023 [6] - Concerns exist regarding college graduates struggling to find jobs, attributed to a slowing job market and the impact of AI [11][13] - Small businesses continue to show high confidence levels, which are crucial for job creation [12] Capital Expenditures and Future Outlook - Capital spending has seen a 15% increase in the first half of the year, the best performance since 2011, which typically leads to hiring [13] - Optimism around the administration's policies on capital expensing is contributing to an investment boom [7] - A forecast suggests that the labor market will improve for new graduates by 2026 [14]

Morning. We finally got the PPI report for September. It showed wholesale prices rising less than expected.It's a sign that inflation may be cooling, but concerns are still brewing over the consumer. Confidence hitting its lowest level since April and elevated concerns about the jobs picture. We also got a softer retail sales number this morning.Where does that leave the Fed. Where does it leave the economy. Joining us now, Joe Levia.He is counselor to the Treasury Secretary. And Joe, it's great to have you ...

and stocks will still climb even higher. Ed Yardeni is the president of Yard Denny Research joins us now. It's good to see you.You don't shy away from controversial takes. Some might find this to be just that. Why do you think this market can go higher even if the Fed does little.>> Well, I think that if the Fed does cut rates, we'll have to watch what the bond market does because last year when the Fed cut the Fed funds rate by 100 basis points, the the bond yield went up by 100 basis points. Uh I think mu ...

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Kevin Hassett as the potential next Federal Reserve chair is influencing market expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield reaching 4% for the first time in a month [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Traders are increasing their bets on lower interest rates over the next year, anticipating that Hassett will implement aggressive reductions in borrowing costs as advocated by President Trump [2]. - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by two basis points to 4%, marking the lowest level since the Fed's meeting in late October [2]. - Following the news of Hassett's potential appointment, the dollar fell to a session low before recovering some losses [4]. Group 2: Economic Context - The movement in Treasuries was prompted by data indicating labor-market weakness and a decline in oil prices [5]. - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran supported the outlook for rate reductions, emphasizing the need for significant cuts in the US economy [5]. Group 3: Future Implications - The addition of Hassett to the Fed board would result in two voting members advocating for proactive rate cuts, increasing the likelihood of 50 basis point moves in the post-Powell era [6][7]. - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is overseeing the search for Powell's replacement, with an announcement expected by December 25, and five candidates in consideration [7].

Core Insights - The lumber market is experiencing a downturn, with futures prices trending lower and a potential for increased price variance due to U.S.-Canada trade relations and interest rate fluctuations [1][4]. Price Trends - Active-month lumber futures were trading at $595 per 1,000 board feet on August 19, 2025, but fell to around $530 by late November, marking a 10.7% decrease [2][4]. - January 2026 lumber futures have fluctuated between $527.50 and $699.00 per 1,000 board feet throughout 2025, with a notable high of $698.50 on August 1 [4]. - The trading range for lumber prices in 2025 has been narrow compared to previous years, with 2021 and 2022 highs significantly higher than the 2025 low [5]. ETF Performance - The iShares Global Timber & Forestry ETF (WOOD) settled at $74.52 per share on August 19, 2025, but declined to $67.74 by late November, representing a 9.1% drop [6][7]. - The CUT ETF has also seen a decline since August 19, indicating a broader trend in the timber and forestry sector [2].

Economic Outlook - The report suggests a potential slowdown in third-quarter growth due to a miss on the retail side, leading to lower consumer spending expectations for the fourth quarter [2] - The market anticipates the Fed to cut rates due to concerns about economic weakness, outweighing inflation concerns [3] - Consumer confidence data indicates increasing concern about the job market, with more people reporting difficulty finding jobs [5][6] - A survey indicates that 57% of respondents anticipate a weaker economy in 2026, potentially impacting holiday spending [7] - Consumers are expected to reduce spending and prioritize needs over wants during the holiday season, potentially leading to a softer season compared to the previous year [8][9] Federal Reserve (The Fed) - The market speculates that the White House may be considering Kevin Hasset as a potential Fed chair, which could influence interest rate policy [10][11][12][13][14] - The president may prefer a Fed chair who is more inclined to lower interest rates [14] - The bond market's reaction to the potential Fed chair appointment is muted, while the dollar's reaction suggests anticipation of a more dovish Fed [14][15]

Federal Reserve Policy & Leadership - Kevin Hassett 被认为是下任美联储主席的热门人选，他与特朗普总统在经济和货币政策上的观点一致[1][3] - 市场预期 Hassett 可能会推动更快的降息，导致两年期国债收益率下降至 346% 左右，十年期国债收益率低于 4%[33][80] - Hassett 的任命可能会导致美联储内部出现分歧，影响 2026 年及以后的货币政策[38] - 现任美联储主席 Jerome Powell 的任期到 2026 年 5 月结束，但特朗普总统可能希望尽快任命 Hassett [10][11] Market & Economic Outlook - 市场普遍认为，美联储的独立性至关重要，但特朗普政府希望确保所有利率都降低[17][18] - 经济数据喜忧参半，零售销售数据略有疲软，但信用卡追踪数据显示 10 月份有所回升，整体经济表现良好[23] - 预计 12 月或 1 月可能会降息 25 个基点，但 2026 年初的财政刺激可能会给通胀带来上行压力，导致美联储暂停降息[21][25][27] - 劳动力市场正在放缓，但财政刺激可能会稳定劳动力市场，并可能给就业带来上行压力[28][30] Crypto & SPACs - 讨论了加密货币领域的 SPACS（特殊目的收购公司）与数字资产 Treasury 公司的合并，类似于“Turducken”结构[46][48][49] - 几家 SPAC 公司正在与加密货币公司合作，但比特币价格自历史高位下跌 30%，可能影响投资者对这些交易的看法[50][52] - 以太坊的价格自 8 月份高点下跌约 40%，但 Dynamo 仍然看好以太坊的长期发展，并认为其在人工智能发展中扮演重要角色[57][58][62] - Hyperion DEFI 的股价自 7 月份以来下跌了约 75%，该公司正在通过构建新的收入来源来应对数字资产跟踪公司面临的挑战[65][66]

Over the past year, 1 in 3 condo owners in Manhattan who sold sold at a loss. Now, with the election of Mamdani, there are reports that the wealthy could flee even more, going to the suburbs or places like Florida or Texas. But the real reason why Manhattan real estate has been flat over the past decade, and what the wealthy are really doing is a bit more nuanced.I think prices got too high and they've had to come down. So of course people lost money. And you're reading about $100 million transactions, but ...