US equities have defied virtually every warning in the past five months, but Wall Street veterans see reasons for worry https://t.co/mLSiTay4fG ...

Market Volatility & Investor Sentiment - The options market, as indicated by the VIX, suggests a lack of concern regarding potential government shutdowns or a pause in the market rally [2] - KKM Financial anticipates increased market volatility at the end of the month and quarter [1][4] - A significant amount of cash, approximately $8 trillion, is sitting on the sidelines, potentially fueling a market chase at month-end [4] - The melting VIX and underinvested shorts are expected to push the market higher, regardless of high valuations [15] Economic Factors & Fed Policy - The upward revision of GDP is viewed positively [2] - Inflation numbers present a conundrum for the Federal Reserve, which is now shifting its focus more towards unemployment [3] - The market rally can resume, with the S&P 500 having risen nearly 35% from its April 8th low of 4802 [3] - An anticipated easing cycle with one or two more rate cuts by the end of the year is expected to power US equities [14] Sector Rotation & Emerging Technologies - A rotation is occurring within the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, with profit-taking in names like Nvidia and Microsoft, and gains in names like Google [6][7] - Quantum computing, particularly IBM's advancements, is expected to be a significant theme in Q4 and 2026, potentially revolutionizing crypto and electronic transactions [8][9][10] - IBM's quantum computing test case with HSBC has shown a nearly 34% improvement on their bond trading desk [11]

Market Trends - Chinese government bond issuance is set to plunge by year-end [1] - Market is also pressured by a rotation into equities [1]

Major U.S. equities indexes were little changed in recent trading, after snapping a record-setting streak yesterday. https://t.co/lDllu561b5 ...

RT Breakout (@breakoutprop)When Bitcoin looks sluggish while equities and gold rip, it pays to zoom out.Sentiment tools like risk reversal, orderbook depth, and liquidations show whether weakness is real selling or just positioning. https://t.co/1Y6lyvg7D6 ...

RT Magus (@TraderMagus)Crypto v EquitesYou always should have passively invested in equities while you while you tradedSome are just now realizing thisIn the future when you have wins, pull some out and put into other asset classesIronic I was called a boomer for suggesting such in the pastDon't let CT pessimism get to you, BTC will go higher ...

Welcome back. Stocks on track for another record close. Here to share where he sees the market heading next is Chris Tumi, Morgan Stanley, managing director of private wealth management.It's good to see you back. Thanks for having me. You say good news is already priced in.Really. Like you think it's all in. No, I mean I look I think we've been positive on the market.So I think the variables that were driving performance for us were, you know, earnings breath which is continuing to look good, operating leve ...

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Market Outlook - 314 Research maintains its S&P 500 target of 6,800 for 2025, approximately 2% from current levels [1] - The equity market experienced two positive developments from the Fed this week, supporting a continued long position in the bull market [2] - A potential growth scare, with an estimated one-third chance of occurring in the coming months, could lead to a 7-8% pullback in the equity market [9] - In a growth scare scenario, the 10-year Treasury yield could potentially drop below 350 basis points (35%), although this is not the base case [11] Fed Policy & Economic Indicators - The market had priced in more rate cuts than the Fed signaled in June, setting a high bar for the Fed to clear [3] - Instances where the Fed moves slightly towards market expectations after high expectations have historically been positive for equities in the following quarter [4] - The Fed is effectively lowering the real Fed funds rate (nominal Fed funds rate minus inflation projections) across 2025-2027 [6] - The Fed may be more concerned about the labor market than they are letting on, potentially anticipating a larger left tail risk [16][17] Portfolio Strategy - 314 Research is pressing longs into year-end, paired with an overweight bond position [10] - Investors should prepare their portfolios for potential risks, particularly related to growth concerns [17] - During a growth scare, equities tend to experience increased volatility, with potential drawdowns, while bonds rally [9][16]

Market Trends - Small-cap stocks have joined the US equities rally after a period of underperformance that began during the pandemic [1]