Economic Slowdown & Inflation - The economy is slowing, with housing services inflation gently declining, non-housing services inflation coming down, and wage growth decreasing [3][4] - Consumer spending is cooling, further suggesting a slowdown in the real underlying economy [4] - The ultimate effects of tariffs on inflation are uncertain and may not be known for quarters or a year or more [4] - The average effective tariff being paid at the border is around 10%, climbing month after month, but still short of the 16% headline rate [6] - It is uncertain how high core goods inflation will get and whether it will spill over into other categories and be persistent [11] Monetary Policy - It may become appropriate to start adjusting the federal funds rate in the near term due to the slowing economy [5] - Two rate cuts this year still seem reasonable, but the actual number could vary depending on the effect of tariffs on inflation [13][14] - If tariffs have a bigger effect on inflation, the Fed could do one or more rate cuts and then pause, or even raise rates again [14] - The FOMC is aware of the potential need to adjust course (cut and then raise rates) due to the uncertain effects of tariffs [17][18] Data & Credibility - The BLS data is subject to revisions and declining survey response rates, requiring the Fed to look at other data sources [21][22] - There are concerns about the credibility of economic data following the firing of the head of the BLS, but it is difficult to fake economic reality [25][28] - Wage growth is declining, indicating a cooling labor market [22] Tariffs Impact - Companies have not taken up prices in the way they did during the pandemic, possibly due to the complexities of tariffs compared to the pandemic [7][8] - Some companies hoarded inventory to protect themselves and their customers from tariffs [9][16] - The market is discounting that the tariffs, at least as we know them today, stay that way [12]

Monetary Policy Stance - The industry aims to keep longer-term inflation expectations well-anchored [1] - The industry intends to prevent a one-time price level increase from becoming an ongoing inflation problem [1] - The current policy stance is seen as appropriate to guard against inflation risks [1] - The industry is attentive to risks on the employment side of its mandate [2] Economic Assessment - The industry is well-positioned to learn more about the likely course of the economy and the evolving balance of risks [1] - The industry will receive a good amount of data in coming months to inform its assessment of the balance of risks [2] - This data will help determine the appropriate setting of the federal funds [2]

Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the current policy rate, characterizing it as "modestly restrictive" [2] - The committee believes the economy is not being inappropriately held back by the current modestly restrictive policy [3] - The Federal Reserve has made no pre-decisions regarding potential rate adjustments in September [5] Economic Indicators - Inflation is running slightly above 2%, even when excluding tariff effects [2] - The labor market is solid, with historically low unemployment rates [2] - Financial conditions are accommodative [2] Future Considerations - Downside risks to the labor market exist [3] - The Federal Reserve will receive two rounds of jobs and inflation data before the September meeting to inform their assessment of risks and the appropriate federal funds rate [4][5]

Bond Market & Yields - The 10-year yield remains stagnant at 446%, mirroring levels from November, indicating a lack of movement in borrowing costs [1] - Despite positive economic data, bond yields experienced an initial rise followed by a slight decrease, influenced by technical factors [4] - Key psychological levels for yields are identified: just under 2% for 2-year, 450% for 10-year, and 500% for 30-year maturities [5] Economic Data & Fed Policy - Retail sales show a healthy rebound, and initial jobless claims hit a three-month low at 221000 [2][3] - Market expectations for Fed funds imply less easing, shifting from over two quarter-point cuts to 170% [3] - Strong economic data initially pushed yields higher, aligning with typical market behavior [4] Dollar Index - The dollar index is nearing a one-month high, approaching the significant psychological level of 100 [7] - Increased interest rates and a decent labor market contribute to the strengthening of the dollar index [6]

Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's actions, whether tightening or easing, significantly influence the economy and investment landscape [1][2] - Interest rate hikes by the Fed can lead to economic slowdown, stock market declines, and reduced business investment [1][3] - Conversely, interest rate cuts can stimulate economic activity by lowering borrowing costs and encouraging spending and investment [4][5] Economic Cycle - Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for companies and individuals, leading to project cancellations and layoffs [3][4] - Lower interest rates decrease the incentive to save, prompting increased spending and investment in riskier assets [5] - A cycle of increased consumer spending and business expansion can be triggered by Fed easing, leading to job creation and further economic growth [6][7] Sector Analysis - Financials typically benefit from higher interest rates, but not as much from lower rates [6]

Mortgage rates increased last week, according to Freddie Mac, and they’re holding steady this week. So, when will mortgage rates go down significantly, and will they do so in time for you to buy a home before the end of 2025? Are mortgage rates dropping? Yes and no. Short-term mortgage rates aren’t moving much, but annual rates have dropped. As of Nov. 13, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate had risen by two basis points to 6.24%. However, the 30-year rate is now 54 b ...

Mortgage rates have remained largely unchanged since late October, according to Freddie Mac data. You may be waiting to buy a house or refinance your loan until mortgage rates go down. However, according to many experts' 2026 housing market predictions, rates are likely to decrease only slightly next year. That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a bad time to buy or refinance, though. Are mortgage rates dropping? Yes and no. Weekly rates have remained relatively unchanged, but annual rates have decreased. ...

Mortgage rates have increased this week, according to Freddie Mac. However, the Federal Reserve also just cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points for the third time this year. So, will mortgage rates go down, making 2026 the year to buy a house? Or will they stay well above 6%? Are mortgage rates dropping? Yes and no. Although mortgage rates are up weekly, annual rates have fallen. As of Dec. 11, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate had increased by three basis ...

Mortgage rates have been fluctuating over the past month, but all the changes have been small. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped by three basis points this week — but it’s still one basis point higher than this time last month. Stagnant rates may leave you wondering: Is it a good time to buy a house? In this article: Are mortgage rates dropping? As of Oct. 16, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate had fallen by three basis points to 6.27%. ...

Core Insights - Mortgage rates are experiencing a downward trend, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.17% as of October 30, 2025, which is 55 basis points lower than the same time last year [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has cut the federal funds rate twice in 2025, which typically influences mortgage rates, although they do not move in direct correlation [4][5] - The current housing market is characterized by high demand and limited supply, leading to sustained high home prices despite decreasing mortgage rates [14][15] Mortgage Rate Trends - The 15-year fixed mortgage rate is currently at 5.41%, down three basis points from the previous week and 58 basis points lower than last year [2] - Historical data shows that mortgage rates are at their annual lows, with the 30-year rate having decreased from 6.72% a year ago [1][2] - The 10-year Treasury yield is at 3.99%, down from 4.28% a year prior, which influences mortgage rates through a spread [11][12] Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's recent actions to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in both September and October 2025 may lead to further decreases in mortgage rates, although this is not guaranteed [4][10] - Mortgage rates often decline in anticipation of a Fed rate cut, but they may not continue to decrease post-cut, as seen in previous years [5][7] Housing Market Dynamics - The median sale price of single-family homes has increased from $208,400 in Q1 2009 to $410,800 by Q2 2025, indicating a long-term upward trend in home prices [15] - The current imbalance between buyers and available homes is keeping prices high, particularly for first-time home buyers [14] Buyer Strategies - Prospective buyers are encouraged to consider various strategies, such as purchasing smaller homes or condos, to navigate the current market [18][24] - Exploring options like fixer-uppers or considering longer commutes to find affordable housing may also be beneficial [22][23] - Buyers should be aware of financial tools like rate buydowns to make current mortgage rates more manageable [26]