Core Viewpoint - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing significant downward pressure due to concerns over global energy demand, particularly influenced by disappointing economic data from China and geopolitical developments regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - January WTI crude oil is down by $0.84 (-1.46%), reaching a 1.75-month low, while January RBOB gasoline has decreased by $0.0234 (-1.34%), marking a 4.75-year nearest-futures low [1][2]. - The crude crack spread has fallen to a 2.25-month low, which discourages refiners from purchasing crude oil for conversion into gasoline and distillates [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's industrial production for November increased by only 4.8% year-on-year, down from 4.9% in October and below the expected 5.0% [3]. - Retail sales in China for November rose by 1.3% year-on-year, significantly lower than the anticipated 2.9% and representing the smallest increase in 2.75 years [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Optimism regarding a potential ceasefire in Ukraine could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian energy exports, which would negatively impact oil prices [4]. - Increased geopolitical risks in Venezuela, following the interception of a sanctioned oil tanker by US forces, may support crude prices by complicating Venezuela's oil export capabilities [6]. Group 4: Storage and Supply - Crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose by 5.1% week-on-week to 120.23 million barrels as of December 12 [5].

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced the largest two-day drop in a month due to ongoing concerns about global oversupply [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Brent crude traded around $62 per barrel after a 3% decline over the previous two sessions, while West Texas Intermediate was above $58 [2] - Crude prices have been confined within a tight $4 range since the beginning of November, influenced by oversupply concerns and geopolitical risks related to Russian oil flows [5] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The US is projected to reach a record domestic crude production of 13.6 million barrels per day this year, contributing to the oversupply in the global market [2] - The American Petroleum Institute reported a decrease in US crude inventories by 4.8 million barrels last week, although there were significant increases in fuel stockpiles, including gasoline and distillates [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank expressed surprise at the lack of attempts to push Brent prices below $62, indicating a contrarian view amid negative news [3] - The upcoming reports from the International Energy Agency and OPEC are anticipated to provide further insights into the market outlook [5]

Group 1: Price Movements - January WTI crude oil is down -0.48 (-0.82%) and January RBOB gasoline closed down -0.0239 (-1.34%) [1] - Crude oil and gasoline prices have extended losses, with crude at a 2-week low and gasoline at a 4.75-year nearest-futures low [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Concerns about a global oil glut are impacting prices, as Trafigura predicts a "super glut" next year due to new supplies and sluggish demand [3] - The EIA inventory report indicated a larger-than-expected drop in crude supplies, but gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than anticipated [2] Group 3: Market Influences - The crude crack spread has fallen to a 7-week low, discouraging refiners from purchasing crude oil for refining [3] - Saudi Aramco's decision to cut the price of Arab Light crude oil for Asian customers by 30 cents/bbl for January delivery signals weaker energy demand [4] Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks are providing some support for crude prices, with threats from Russian President Putin regarding attacks on ships aiding Ukraine [5] - Recent attacks on Russian tankers and geopolitical tensions in Venezuela are contributing to market volatility [5] Group 5: Russian Oil Exports - Reduced crude exports from Russia are supporting prices, with shipments falling to 1.7 million bpd, the lowest in over 3 years [6] - Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and new sanctions from the US and EU are further limiting Russia's crude export capabilities [6]

Group 1: Market Trends - Crude oil and gasoline prices continued to decline, with crude reaching a 1.5-week low and gasoline a 2-week low due to a stronger dollar and concerns over a global oil glut [2][3] - The crude crack spread fell to a 6-week low, discouraging refiners from purchasing crude oil for conversion into gasoline and distillates [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Trafigura indicated that the global oil market is heading towards a "super glut" next year due to new supply outpacing sluggish energy demand [3] - Saudi Aramco cut the price of its Arab Light crude oil for Asian customers by 30 cents per barrel for January delivery, marking the lowest price since January 2021, reflecting weakened energy demand [4] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks are providing some support to crude prices, with threats from Russian President Putin regarding attacks on ships aiding Ukraine and recent drone attacks on Russian tankers in the Black Sea [5] - Reduced crude exports from Russia are also supporting prices, with shipments falling to 1.7 million barrels per day in early November, the lowest in over three years, due to Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and new sanctions from the US and EU [6]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing declines, with crude reaching a 1.5-week low and gasoline a 2-week low, primarily due to a stronger dollar and concerns over a global oil glut [2][3] - Trafigura forecasts a "super glut" in the global oil market next year, driven by new supply outpacing sluggish demand, which is negatively impacting crude prices [3] - Saudi Aramco's recent price cut for Arab Light crude oil indicates weakened energy demand, marking the lowest price since January 2021 [4] Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Russia and Ukraine, are providing some support to crude prices despite overall bearish trends [5] - Russian crude exports have significantly decreased, with shipments falling to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in early November, the lowest in over three years, due to ongoing conflicts and new sanctions [6] - The closure of key oil export routes, such as the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, further constrains Russian oil exports, impacting global supply dynamics [6]

Price Trends - The national average price of gasoline has dropped to $2.79 per gallon, the lowest level since 2021, with a decrease of 4 cents from the previous week [1] - Diesel prices have also declined, with the national average currently at $3.671 per gallon, down 5.1 cents from a week ago [1] State Variations - Gas prices vary significantly by state, with Oklahoma at $2.366 per gallon and California at $4.469 per gallon [1] Market Dynamics - Global oil prices are influenced by geopolitical risks, such as sanctions on Russia and tensions in the Middle East, which push prices up, while fears of economic slowdown and oversupply pull them down [2] - Brent crude for February delivery is trading at $62.79 per barrel, down 1.51%, while WTI crude for January delivery is at $59.12 per barrel, down 1.53% [2] Demand Outlook - Ongoing negotiations for a Ukraine/Russia peace deal contribute to oil price stability, with expectations of upward revisions in demand due to stronger U.S. oil demand growth [3]

Group 1: Price Movements - January WTI crude oil is down by $0.91 (-1.51%) and January RBOB gasoline is down by $0.0279 (-1.52%) [1] - Gasoline prices have fallen to a 1.5-week low, influenced by the strength of the dollar and weakness in stock prices [2] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Saudi Aramco has cut the price of its Arab Light crude oil for Asian customers by $0.30 per barrel for January delivery, indicating weakened energy demand [3] - Russia's oil product shipments fell to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first 15 days of November, the lowest in over three years, due to Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and new sanctions [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks are providing support for crude prices, with threats from Russian President Putin regarding attacks on ships aiding Ukraine and recent drone attacks on Russian tankers [4] - The U.S. has indicated potential military actions in Venezuela, which is significant as Venezuela is the world's 12th-largest oil producer [4] Group 4: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases during Q1 of 2026, following a planned increase of 137,000 bpd in December [6] - OPEC's crude production decreased by 10,000 bpd to 29.09 million bpd in November, as the group aims to restore a total of 2.2 million bpd cut in early 2024 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are at two-week highs due to expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which is anticipated to boost economic growth and energy demand, while also considering geopolitical risks affecting oil supplies from Russia and Venezuela [1] Group 1 - Oil prices are currently elevated, reaching levels not seen in two weeks [1] - Investors are anticipating a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week [1] - The expected rate cut is likely to enhance economic growth and increase energy demand [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks are being monitored, particularly those that could impact oil supplies from Russia and Venezuela [1]

January WTI crude oil (CLF26) today is up +0.61 (+1.03%), and January RBOB gasoline (RBF26) is up +0.0017 (+0.09%). Crude oil and gasoline prices are moving higher today on dollar weakness as the dollar index (DXY00) dropped to a 5-week low.  Also, the war in Ukraine looks set to drag on, which will keep sanctions on Russian energy exports in place, after US-Russian talks failed to reach a breakthrough in ending the war in Ukraine.  Gains in crude are limited after Saudi Arabia cut the price of its main c ...

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have decreased due to hopes for a resolution to the Russian-Ukrainian war, which could lead to increased global oil supplies as restrictions on Russian energy exports may be lifted [1] - Russian geopolitical tensions and military threats are providing support for crude oil prices, despite the overall downward trend [2][5] - Recent data indicates a significant rise in crude oil stored on stationary tankers, reaching the highest level in nearly 2.5 years [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC has revised its Q3 global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, now projecting a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to higher-than-expected US production and increased OPEC output [4] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its 2025 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd, up from 13.53 million bpd [4] Geopolitical Factors - Venezuelan geopolitical risks are contributing to the support of crude prices, following statements from President Trump regarding the airspace over Venezuela [5] - Reduced crude exports from Russia are also underpinning crude prices, with shipments falling to 1.7 million bpd in early November, the lowest in over three years [6] - Ukraine's military actions have targeted Russian refineries, knocking out 13% to 20% of Russia's refining capacity and limiting crude export capabilities [6]