Switzerland lifts the growth outlook for next year on the back of its trade deal with the US https://t.co/4vfS0FpFlv ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has suspended a technology-focused trade agreement with Britain due to ongoing disagreements regarding Britain's digital regulations and food safety standards [1] Group 1 - The trade pledge was aimed at enhancing cooperation in technology sectors between the U.S. and Britain [1] - The pause reflects broader tensions between the two nations concerning regulatory frameworks [1] - The suspension may impact future negotiations and collaborations in the tech industry [1]

The US is seeking to expand and deepen its defense relationship with Vietnam, according to Washington’s top envoy there, as the two sides continue to hammer out details of a trade deal https://t.co/MqxVOak6nm ...

Trade and Geopolitical Factors - Trade deal timeline is uncertain, influenced by geopolitical developments more than bilateral trade issues [1][2] - A trade deal agreement would significantly boost Indian market sentiment by removing risk premium [4] - Trade uncertainties impact GDP projections, but domestic economy and exporter diversification mitigate negative effects [5] Economic Growth and Reforms - India's potential growth has likely increased due to decade-long structural reforms, including public infrastructure investment, digital infrastructure rollout, GST, and insolvency/bankruptcy code [8] - The economy has consistently outperformed expectations in the last five years post-COVID, suggesting potential for continued positive surprises in fiscal year 2026-2027 [11] - RBI estimates India's growth at 73% for fiscal year 2025-2026, and predicts around 67% for the next fiscal year [10] Consumption and Household Savings - Consumption is expected to strengthen, particularly in urban India, supported by GST reform and direct tax relief [12][14] - Rural consumption is performing well due to successive good monsoons and real wage/income growth [12][13] - India's household savings rate has increased from 49% of GDP in 2022-2023 to 6% of GDP, indicating improved household balance sheets [15] Rupee and Inflation - Weaker rupee improves the Indian trade balance on a net basis, offsetting import costs and benefiting exporters [17][18] - Rupee weakness reflects investor caution and is undervalued relative to India's economic fundamentals [20][22] - The rupee could be undervalued by 5% to 15% in real effective terms [24] - Lower inflation is seen as beneficial for the Indian economy, reflecting the impact of structural reforms on supply-side constraints [32] Aviation Industry - Recent disruptions in the aviation sector, such as flight cancellations, are expected to lead to better systems and resilience in the long run [38] - The long-term impact of aviation issues on Indian domestic and foreign tourism is not expected to be significant, given growing market and purchasing power [40]

India’s chief economic adviser said he would be surprised if an “elusive” trade deal with the US isn’t signed by March, as most trade-related issues have been resolved https://t.co/Ti6Mpg7Xpc ...

Geopolitical & Trade Relations - Indonesia resists US trade-deal demands due to concerns about its independence [1] - The resistance is particularly focused on critical minerals and energy sectors [1] - Indonesia fears the trade deal could strain its relations with China and Russia [1]

Two separate US delegations are in New Delhi this week to hold talks with their India counterparts, seeking to repair bilateral ties even as a trade deal remains elusive https://t.co/xxLaEha2le ...

What would be your advice for the Republican leadership, knowing that John Thune promised Democrats a floor vote. The House is in question. Yeah, So I think Senator Thune, Leader Thune is certainly going to fulfill that commitment.I think we know that that agreement, which is just a major extension of that, won't come forward. You know, in the House, I think they're frustrated because those eight weeks of the shutdown wasted the time to be able to do the negotiations. So the clock's ticking.Very quickly. Ye ...

India’s rupee fell past a key psychological level of 90 per dollar as delays in finalizing a crucial trade deal with the US hurt sentiment https://t.co/Oj0gaUk4bD ...

The Indian rupee has tested a series of record lows this year, and some analysts warn it could slip to the psychologically key 90-per-dollar level if a crucial trade deal with the US doesn’t materialize soon. https://t.co/oEVf23TIUQ ...