European Central Bank Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said that while inflation is near the 2% target, there’s been “some pick-up in momentum recently,” according to a presentation for MNI Connect https://t.co/Tk7BLyYQHd ...

Joining us on set Joe Leavia he is counselor to Scott Besset treasury secretary of these fine the United States happy prefed day Joe thanks for joining us >> happy Tuesday >> yes or Tuesday uh what is your expect so what is your expectation from the Fed and then what would your hope from the Fed be if they are not the same thing the more interesting question Brian is where is neutral where is the neutral rate and the neutral rate is probably a lot lower uh than where many in the market think because you loo ...

Chile President Gabriel Boric nominated Kevin Cowan to the central bank board as investors bet that policymakers will bring inflation to target as soon as early next year https://t.co/PicTT5L2f0 ...

Monetary Policy Outlook - Goldman Sachs anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and believes they should do so [2] - The firm expects the Fed to be hawkish in its rhetoric following the rate cut but suggests they should be patient and await official data on the labor market [2] - Goldman Sachs suspects the labor market is weaker than it appears and anticipates a deeper easing cycle from the Fed than the market currently expects [3] - The firm believes the Fed will quickly counteract negative pressures in the labor market and move into a more easing posture early in the new year [4] Labor Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs acknowledges mixed messages in job openings reports and unemployment claims but suspects labor market weakness will become apparent in 2026 [5][3] - The firm anticipates productivity gains from technology and AI adoption will necessitate easier monetary policy to assist labor market rebalancing [6] Economic Growth and Inflation - Goldman Sachs is bullish on growth in 2026, anticipating high GDP and high unemployment, requiring lower interest rates [7][8] - The firm expects productivity gains to lower the cost of goods sold, benefiting consumers and margins, and does not anticipate stubbornly high inflation [7][6] - Goldman Sachs views AI and technological advances as a significant unlock of productivity, benefiting consumers and the real economy [8][9] Fiscal Implications - Goldman Sachs notes that great growth and lower interest rates would be beneficial for the US government's fiscal balance [9]

Well, let's stick with the Fed ahead of tomorrow's rate decision. Jonathan Pink of UBS writing We expect a large majority of FOMC members to support a 25 basis point rate cut. Expect few changes to the DOT plot and no change to median assumption of appropriate policy.Jonathan joins us now. Good morning, Jonathan. Thanks for being here. Thanks for having me.So let's just start with a question of what you expect to learn tomorrow if you don't think we're going to get any adjustments. Well, I think we are goin ...

We've seen this sort of global hint towards inflation concerns. Yesterday it was the ECB, last week it was Japan. Today, the RBA talking a little about inflation.A previous guest on this program was not worried much about certainly US inflation. How concerned are you around the inflation theme and the higher yield seen that seems to be building. Yeah, I mean, certainly the higher yields seem I think it's something to take seriously.This is actually pretty normal behavior for markets. So what you see is that ...

Labor Market & Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley suggests the labor market may have already bottomed, with any economic slowdown being sector-specific [1] - The firm believes a rolling recession has been occurring, with each sector experiencing its own recession due to post-COVID distortions [2] - Data indicates the rate of change on payrolls and layoffs peaked/bottomed in April, coinciding with the market bottom [2] Federal Reserve Policy - A non-weak labor market could give the Federal Reserve more room to cut rates [4] - The Fed's data is lagged, and revisions show a significant labor recovery [5] - Rate cuts are needed for the financially leveraged parts of the economy, such as housing and consumer goods [8] - The risk of the Fed cutting rates into a good earnings cycle is asset inflation [8] Inflation & Wage Growth - Accelerating inflation is generally good for company earnings, especially for lagging companies, if the Fed isn't raising rates [8] - The current administration aims to address affordability through wage gains, with wage growth needing to outpace inflation [9][10] - Fiscal policy changes are intended to reduce consumption and increase investment, potentially leading to better productivity [11] - Reconfiguring the economy through fiscal policy should lead to better productivity [11] Market Performance & Strategy - Morgan Stanley anticipates 17% earnings growth for the S&P [14] - The firm projects the S&P 500 could reach 7,800, pricing it off of 2027 estimates [14] - A key risk to this strategy is inflation returning to a level that forces the Fed to react by raising rates [15]

Joining us head of King's College Cambridge and columnist for the Financial Times, Jillian Tet and semaphore Congressional Bureau Chief Burgess Everett. So is a inflation essentially gone, Jillian, if only. Um, frankly, inflation has been running above the Fed's 2% target now for several months.The signs are that it has been heading up. The good news is it's not heading up as high as some people feared early this year when President Trump announced the tariffs and that's enabled the White House to say, "Loo ...

Let's talk about it all with Kate Moore, chief investment officer at City Wealth. Kate, good to see you again. How relevant, if at all, maybe it's not, is this Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday.>> Look, it's super relevant. I think we can agree that everyone in the market is watching this and that, you know, participants, whether you're equity investors or multi-asset investors or rates investors, are really concerned with the tone of the Fed coming out of this rate decision. not so much the action itse ...

Joining us now is Bob Dah, CEO and CIO at Crossmark Global Global Investments. Bob, great to see you. >> Good to see you, Mike. >> How are you thinking about uh the market economy interplay into this Fed decision? >> Uh look, I think we're in a high risk bull market. Words chosen carefully. Bull market path to least resistance is higher. When the Fed's cutting rates and earnings estimates are going up, stocks almost never go down. That's the bull part. Got to be invested. >> You know what the other side is? ...