🇺🇸 96% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at this month’s FOMC meeting in 15 days https://t.co/SulDcipFEl ...

Government Shutdown Impact on Data & Fed Policy - The government shutdown complicates the Fed's decision-making process due to the lack of hard data, including government jobs data and inflation data [1] - The Fed faces a dilemma: whether to rely on existing labor market data with alternative datasets or pause and wait for the release of delayed data [3] - Data delays have ripple effects, potentially impacting the quality of CPI data for October, November, and December [4] - The shutdown leads to murkier data, with a higher percentage of CPI goods being estimated by staff [4] Economic Impact - The shutdown is estimated to drag quarterly GDP by approximately 10 basis points per week [6] - Federal workers are losing approximately $400 million per day in compensation, impacting consumer spending [6] Market Reaction - Markets are likely to react negatively if the Fed pauses due to the government shutdown, as rate cuts have already been priced in [9] - Alternative data sets do not fully compensate for the lack of government data, particularly in gauging the magnitude of economic changes [10][11] - The range of estimates for the September payroll report varies widely, from as high as 60,000 to as low as negative 30,000 [11] Investment Strategy - The government shutdown has not caused dramatic shifts in investment strategies, as underlying earnings remain strong [14] - Q3 earnings growth estimates have ticked up from 8% to 88%, indicating underlying strength in the markets [16]

Talk about gold is actually for a change quite flat this morning but it's been on a tear, caught the attention of Ken Griffey and Goldman Sachs hoping that their target on gold for the end of next year. What are you seeing this morning of interest in the gold price. Yes.So as you say, it is about flat this morning. It's come off. But overnight it surged to fresh records above futures, above 4000.And actually Goldman Sachs increased their forecast for next year to 4900. You know, these are sort of unpreceden ...

Market Expectations - Markets are pricing in a 99% chance of a 25bps rate cut [1]

🔥 POWELL: rate cut brings the Fed “another step” toward neutrality. https://t.co/AkU2BOh7vy ...

[Music] I'm finance executive editor Brian Sazi and you're taking a look at live shot opening bells on Wall Street on this Monday morning. Ambassador Mike Waltz ringing the bell at the New York Stock Exchange to recognize the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly and climate leaders getting things underway over at the NASDAQ to kick off New York Climate Week. Now, there's no shortage of things for investors to uh think about this morning.Everything from President Trump's new plan for the H-1B ...

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran shares his perspective on economic outlook and monetary policy at the Economic Club of New York on Monday. The Fed last week approved a widely anticipated rate cut and signaled that two more are on the way before the end of the year as concerns intensified over the U.S. labor market. In an 11 to 1 vote that signaled less dissent than Wall Street had anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee lowered its benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter percentage point ...

Market Expectations - Markets anticipate a 91.9% probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in October [1]

The FOMC meeting provided a rate cut.That means; the #Altcoin bull run is on the horizon.Why?I've analyzed all of the recent FOMC rate cuts over the last years and it showed this: https://t.co/bwxvSrC8tE ...

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - The market responded positively to seemingly productive talks between President Trump and China's President Xi Jinping, with major indexes closing higher and at record levels [2] - A Goldman Sachs basket of stocks most owned by retail traders is up over 13% in the past 10 days, marking its first-ever 10-day winning streak, indicating a broader trend beyond just one company [10] - The Fed's September rate cut and five straight weeks of mortgage rate declines are providing some relief to buyers, but affordability remains a significant challenge [36] Open Door Analysis - Open Door's CFO is departing, with Christy Schwarz named as interim CFO, effective at the end of the month [3] - Open Door's stock experienced a surge, going from below $1 to nearly $10 a share, driven by expectations of a turnaround in the housing market and retail investor interest [4] - Open Door's second-quarter earnings showed positive EBITDA, but the third quarter is expected to be worse than analysts anticipated [6][7] - The return of co-founders and Shopify's former COO to Open Door is attributed to the increased stock price and retail investor interest [7][11] - Open Door needs to improve its spreads in home buying/selling, agent capture, and potentially mortgage financing to convince the broader market [15] Meme Stock & Retail Investor Impact - Retail investors actively involved in Open Door are often accredited investors with significant capital, influencing market movements [18][19] - Weekly options play a crucial role in driving stock movements, with aggressive buying of near and out-of-the-money call options reinforcing upward trends [20][21] - Transparency and open communication with shareholders have been key to winning over retail investors in the Open Door situation [12][13][14] Housing Market Dynamics - The housing market is highly sensitive to interest rate changes, with purchase applications picking up when rates decline [37] - A "lethal combination" of high home prices relative to income, elevated interest rates, rising maintenance costs, rising insurance, and rising taxes is holding back buyers [40][41] - Sellers are facing challenges due to a mismatch of expectations and reality, with some pulling their listings due to not seeing the rapid price increases they were accustomed to [43][44] US-China Relations - The US and China are engaging in serious negotiations, with potential for a more stable and predictable relationship compared to the pre-"Liberation Day" period [23][25] - Potential agreements include the Tik Tok deal and restrictions on precursor chemicals for fentanyl export from China, which could lead to tariff reductions [27][28] - China is building an alternative global order, suggesting countries cannot trust the US and should work more with China [29] Global Political Landscape - While many leaders do not want to fight with the US, many lack trust in the US president, leading them to hedge away from the US long term [32] - The G7 is not united in its support for the rule of law, multilateralism, and the UN, potentially allowing China to gain more influence [35]