The market is now expecting a 100% chance of a rate cut this month.Only if the Fed announces to end QT too this month, we could see a rally. https://t.co/rFDmt14gtW ...

I want to talk about the meeting that takes place at the end of this month as well. You were pretty clear going into the last meeting. You delivered a speech and I believe the title was let's get on with it.Are you advocating for the same thing at this meeting. Yeah, I think it's it's uh the right thing to do. Back then there was an issue of whether you go 50 or 25 and I thought I argued we could do 25 and see how the data comes in. Of course, we're not getting much data and then we can think about the next ...

Across Asia hopes of a Fed rate cut are giving markets a lift, helping offset jitters over renewed US-China trade tensions. That upbeat mood could spill over into Indian equities. Read for free with your email on what could move markets today https://t.co/TGwabRNHza ...

Across Asia hopes of a Fed rate cut are giving markets a lift, helping offset jitters over renewed US-China trade tensions. That upbeat mood could spill over into Indian equities. Read for free with your email on what could move markets today https://t.co/iuaeh59wzQ ...

🇺🇸 96% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at this month’s FOMC meeting in 15 days https://t.co/SulDcipFEl ...

Government Shutdown Impact on Data & Fed Policy - The government shutdown complicates the Fed's decision-making process due to the lack of hard data, including government jobs data and inflation data [1] - The Fed faces a dilemma: whether to rely on existing labor market data with alternative datasets or pause and wait for the release of delayed data [3] - Data delays have ripple effects, potentially impacting the quality of CPI data for October, November, and December [4] - The shutdown leads to murkier data, with a higher percentage of CPI goods being estimated by staff [4] Economic Impact - The shutdown is estimated to drag quarterly GDP by approximately 10 basis points per week [6] - Federal workers are losing approximately $400 million per day in compensation, impacting consumer spending [6] Market Reaction - Markets are likely to react negatively if the Fed pauses due to the government shutdown, as rate cuts have already been priced in [9] - Alternative data sets do not fully compensate for the lack of government data, particularly in gauging the magnitude of economic changes [10][11] - The range of estimates for the September payroll report varies widely, from as high as 60,000 to as low as negative 30,000 [11] Investment Strategy - The government shutdown has not caused dramatic shifts in investment strategies, as underlying earnings remain strong [14] - Q3 earnings growth estimates have ticked up from 8% to 88%, indicating underlying strength in the markets [16]

Gold Market Analysis - Gold price surged to fresh records above $4,000 futures overnight before stabilizing [1][2] - Goldman Sachs increased their gold price forecast for next year to $4,900 [2] - Political uncertainty in Europe, particularly in France, and the US government shutdown are contributing to a haven bid for gold [2] - Market is pricing in a rate cut from the Federal Reserve, which is currently positive for gold [3] - Potential risk exists that incoming US data could shift the picture and impact gold's momentum [4] Currency Market Dynamics - Dollar is showing strength, potentially impacting gold's performance [4][5] - Dollar's strength is attributed to a rebound story, diminishing trade uncertainty, and political uncertainty in Europe and Japan [6] - Possibility exists that rate cuts might turn out differently than currently priced, which could further support the dollar [6] Tech Stocks and Market Sentiment - S&P closed at a record high, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor index is up 6% this month [8] - Market rallies are driven by an abundance of news, raising questions about sustainability if news flow slows [9] - Uncertainties dissipating from the rest of the market could impact the frothy interest in tech stocks [9]

Market Expectations - Markets are pricing in a 99% chance of a 25bps rate cut [1]

🔥 POWELL: rate cut brings the Fed “another step” toward neutrality. https://t.co/AkU2BOh7vy ...

[Music] I'm finance executive editor Brian Sazi and you're taking a look at live shot opening bells on Wall Street on this Monday morning. Ambassador Mike Waltz ringing the bell at the New York Stock Exchange to recognize the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly and climate leaders getting things underway over at the NASDAQ to kick off New York Climate Week. Now, there's no shortage of things for investors to uh think about this morning.Everything from President Trump's new plan for the H-1B ...