Inflation & Monetary Policy - Gradual pace of rate cuts is acceptable if stagflationary pressures subside [1] - Inflation has been above target for four and a half years, requiring caution regarding aggressive upfront measures [1]

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the US should be cautious on rate cuts as inflation rises above target https://t.co/sNdggPbvfg ...

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack urges caution on rate cuts, staying focused on inflation https://t.co/SOT8iJxRDl ...

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 FED President Raphael Bostic expects no further rate cuts this year after the September rate cut. https://t.co/SH1zT9kxuK ...

Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Market sentiment is high, making it susceptible to news that could trigger profit-taking or normalization of positions [1] - Q3 earnings season will be crucial for market direction [2] - While rate cuts are generally seen as positive, their impact depends on whether they are accompanied by strong earnings or aggressive economic softening [3] - Short-term market movements may be influenced by inflation and the Federal Reserve's trajectory, but earnings are the primary long-term driver [4] Earnings Pressure and Valuation - Valuations are putting pressure on companies to deliver strong earnings [4] - The market needs excess growth beyond what the economy can deliver to push higher [4] - Earnings need to be at the highest levels since the tech bubble and post-pandemic build [5] - Focus is on Q3 earnings reports and company commentary [5] Equifax as a Pick - Equifax is presented as an inflection story, where lower rates are expected to drive earnings [6] - Analyst expectations for Equifax's earnings are well above consensus for fiscal years 2026 and 2027, driven by lower mortgage rates [6] - Equifax is expected to improve its return on equity (ROE) by improving margins and increasing efficiency [7] Mortgage Rates and Housing Market - The thesis is impacted by mortgage rates moving to the upside [7] - Mortgage rates closer to 6% could spur demand for refinancing and new home activity [8] - Housing is underbuilt in the United States, providing tailwinds beyond short-term rate fluctuations [8]

Market Sentiment and Earnings - Investor sentiment is currently high, leading to potential profit-taking and normalization of positions in response to any unsettling news [1] - The upcoming Q3 earnings reporting season is expected to be a significant factor influencing market direction [2][4] - The market's recent highs are attributed to expectations of rate cuts, but the sustainability of this trend hinges on strong earnings performance [2][3] Earnings Pressure - There is considerable pressure on earnings to exceed growth expectations, particularly given current market valuations [4][5] - The current earnings pressure is noted to be at levels not seen since the tech bubble and the post-pandemic recovery [5] Company Focus: Equifax - Equifax is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity due to its earnings inflection story, driven by lower interest rates impacting mortgage rates [6] - Analyst expectations for Equifax's earnings are projected to be significantly above consensus for fiscal years 2026 and 2027, supported by lower mortgage rates [6] - The company is expected to improve its return on equity (ROE) through enhanced margins and operational efficiency [7] Mortgage Rates and Housing Market - Despite recent increases in mortgage rates, the long-term outlook remains positive due to a housing market that is underbuilt in the United States [8] - The current mortgage rates are approaching the 6% range, which may stimulate demand for both refinancing and new home purchases [8]

Market Trends - Bitcoin supporter Stephen Miran anticipates rate cuts to continue in the coming months [1]

Steve Leeman, CNBC. Mr. . Chair, um, in the past during rake cut, you used the word recalibration and I wonder if you pointedly did not use it this time and in fact when you said policy is not on a preset course, did you mean to that as sort of the opposite of pre of of recalibration.Are we um meeting to meeting data point by data point. Are we in the process here of getting back to neutral. Thank you.So I think we are we're in a meeting bymeating situation. We're going to be looking at the data. You know, ...

talk. Joining us now is Dan Clifton, head of policy research at Strategus Research Partners, a bar company. Uh Dan, it's great to great to talk to you here.I mean, it's interesting because for as much as there's been kind of the pressure and the friction and the back and forth and the debates about, you know, what the Fed would do and and what the administration might prefer, the data have come in in such a way that you now have this consensus built by one way or another about >> roughly the path of cuts. S ...

UPDATE: 🇺🇸 Fed median projection shows 50 bps more rate cuts in 2025. ...