Core Points - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that another rate cut in December is not guaranteed, highlighting differing views among Fed governors regarding inflation risks and labor market conditions [1][2] - The Fed has reduced its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.75% to 4%, citing cooling labor conditions and persistent inflation [2] - Powell noted that while inflation has decreased from 2022 highs, recent price pressures in goods categories have emerged, leading to an upward tilt in near-term inflation risks [3] - The Fed plans to end its balance sheet runoff, concluding "quantitative tightening" on December 1, after reducing its securities holdings by $2.2 trillion over the past three and a half years [4] - Powell emphasized that the Fed will remain data-dependent and is prepared to respond to economic developments without a preset policy course [5]

POWELL: Inflation is still making people quite unhappyBitcoin fixes this ☝️ ...

Group 1 - The near-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, while risks to employment are tilted to the downside, indicating a challenging situation for policy [1] - The framework emphasizes a balanced approach to promote both sides of the dual mandate, with increased downside risks to employment noted in recent months [2] - The decision-making process remains flexible, with the appropriate stance of monetary policy being determined by incoming data and evolving outlooks [3] Group 2 - There were strongly differing views on the approach for the December meeting, indicating that a further reduction in the policy rate is not guaranteed [4] - The policy direction is not on a pre-set course, highlighting the uncertainty in future monetary policy decisions [4]

Inflation & Employment Risks - Near-term inflation risks are tilted to the upside, while employment risks lean towards the downside [1] - Navigating the tension between employment and inflation goals presents a challenging situation with no risk-free policy path [1] Monetary Policy Stance - The framework emphasizes a balanced approach in promoting both sides of the dual mandate [2] - Downside risks to employment have increased in recent months, shifting the balance of risks [2] - The company judged it appropriate to take another step toward a more neutral policy stance [2] - The company remains well-positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments [3] - The appropriate stance of monetary policy will be determined based on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks [3] - The committee continues to face two-sided risks in its discussions [3] Future Policy Decisions - Strongly differing views exist about how to proceed in December [4] - A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion [4] - Policy is not on a pre-set course [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has not made a decision regarding a policy rate reduction at the upcoming December meeting, indicating that market assumptions of a rate cut are premature [1][3] - There are strong differing views among committee members regarding the balance of risks between inflation and labor market conditions, highlighting the complexity of the current economic situation [2][4] - The recent data suggests a shift in risks, with higher downside risks to the labor market than previously anticipated, prompting a reevaluation of the policy stance towards a more neutral position [4][5] Group 2 - The committee is considering the need to balance its dual goals of controlling inflation and supporting employment, which may require adjustments to the policy rate depending on future data [5] - The approach to risk management is evolving, with the committee recognizing the need to adapt its strategy based on changing economic indicators [3][5]

Chair Powell, are you uncomfortable with how market pricing has assumed a rate cut is a foregone conclusion at your next meeting. >> Well, I as I just mentioned, um a further reduction in the policy rate of December meeting is not a foregone conclusion as I've just said. So, uh I would say that that needs to be taken on board. We had um you know, I would just say this uh 19 participants on the committee.Everyone works very hard at this and takes their obligations to serve the American people very seriously. ...

In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside. A challenging situation. There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals.Our framework calls for us to take a balanced approach in promoting both sides of our dual mandate. With downside risks to employment having increased in recent months, the balance of risks has shifted. Accordingly, we judged it appropriate at this meeting to take another st ...

Good afternoon. Um, my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on our achieving our dualmandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. Although some important federal government data have been delayed due to the shutdown, the public and private sector data that have remained available suggest that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since our meeting in September.Conditions in the labor market appear to be gradually cooling and inflat ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is critical for market stability, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut at each available meeting, which would help manage government debt servicing costs [2][3] - The current economic environment shows a divergence in performance between profitable and unprofitable companies, particularly within the Russell 2000 index, with unprofitable companies outperforming [5] - The ongoing concern of inflation remains, despite not reaching the highs seen in the past few years, which poses a challenge for central bankers in balancing price stability and full employment [6][7] Group 2 - Tariffs are contributing to a one-time price shock in goods, and their impact on consumer prices is significant, with households facing an average cost of $1,000 due to tariffs, while benefiting from tax cuts of approximately $2,000 [8] - The reliance of smaller companies on variable rate debt financing is notable, with 30% of Russell 2000 companies depending on this type of financing, indicating potential vulnerabilities in a changing interest rate environment [4]

Just she ready reaction to this call in that dissent. I don't think it was at all surprising. The two dissents could have been a bit more interesting.I think Myron could have gone for 75 basis points. After all, he wanted 50 last time. So there's 25 that he's owed, plus another 50 this time.That would have been fun. And Schmitt, where was he last meeting. Where was he last meeting.Now, you've had more evidence that the labour market is feeling a bit sponge year and inflation's not as much of a threat as we ...