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Zhang: Tariffs seem manageable, but China’s August 12 deadline is the bigger risk
CNBC Television· 2025-07-31 11:52
All right. So, what is what are we seeing in the options market ahead of the August 1 deadline. Are we still start are we still seeing people trying to play it even though we've seen a number of deals get done.>> Yeah, there's definitely opportunities right now in terms of trying to pro buy some downside protection, but largely investors are not particularly bidding up puts ahead of this tariff deadline. It really reflects the fact that investors are not particularly concerned here. as you say uh there's a ...
Tariffs weigh on Fed outlook: Here's what to know
CNBC Television· 2025-07-31 11:36
>> And Isaac was great. Julie Julie had some issues. >> All right.The fed holding interest rates steady. But the decision comes with some dissent. Our senior economics reporter Steve Liesman joins us right now from Washington Steve good morning.>> Yeah it wasn't Love Island at the fed yesterday. Fed Chair Jay Powell and the federal committee having two dissents there. But they made clear the December rate cut is not a done deal.And I asked Powell whether the fed now has more clarity on the outlook because t ...
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-07-31 11:02
Fed Chair Jerome Powell shrugged off pressure from the White House and rejected arguments for a rate cut from two dissenting officials, maintaining that the central bank needed to stay on guard against inflation risk https://t.co/QjzQnhFyW3 ...
Former St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard: The policy rate is 'a little bit high' for the situation
CNBC Television· 2025-07-31 10:59
dissenters. That's kind of interesting I guess. But there are Trump appointees, former Saint Louis Fed President James Bullard, he's dean of the Purdue University Business School.James, I guess we'll talk about the dissent. I don't know if it's really that. I guess it's interesting since it's been since 1993.But what do you make of the GDP report in light of the prior quarter being actual. You know, it's obviously being whipsawed by by tariffs and imports. But was there can you just say, hey, that's great, ...
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-07-31 10:15
US bond traders will be scouring inflation data for signs of persistent price pressures https://t.co/93NUn4E0yT ...
Why some Republicans aren't joining Trump's call for Fed rate cuts
MSNBC· 2025-07-31 10:08
The US economy rebounded in the second fiscal quarter of the year, growing at a better thanex expected rate despite President Trump's tariffs. The country's GDP grew at a 3% pace from April to June, reversing a.5 decline from the previous quarter. Consumer spending also rose.But the growth comes despite a sharp decline in imports, which dropped by 30.3%. The Wall Street Journal editorial board called it the weirdest GDP report ever, while President Trump touted the growth as a success. all expectations.They ...
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-07-31 09:53
Kenya’s annual inflation rate climbed to a three-month high in July on tight supplies of vegetables and corn https://t.co/r4nEDabeXF ...
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-07-31 08:56
Zambia’s annual inflation cooled to its lowest level since November 2023 as currency appreciation helped curb the cost of imports https://t.co/j7RU0G4BzF ...
ING Groep(ING) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-31 08:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bank reported a net profit of PLN 1,035 million, representing an 18% year-on-year growth for Q2 2025, and a 10% growth year-on-year for the first six months [26] - The cost of risk decreased by 39% year-on-year, indicating improved risk management and lower provisions [27][39] - The cost-to-deposit ratio improved to 76.3%, one of the highest in the sector [35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail customer base increased by nearly 80,000, while corporate customers grew by 20,000, totaling an annual increase of 155,000 clients [3][4] - Mortgage loans reached a total value of €5 billion in Q2, with a market share of 21% for new production [5] - Cash loans saw a 13% year-on-year increase, marking one of the best quarters in the bank's history [6] - Corporate loans grew by only 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 3% year-on-year, with SMEs showing faster growth compared to larger corporations [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Polish economy is projected to grow by 3.5% in 2025, outperforming regional neighbors like Romania and Hungary [10][11] - Household savings rates are solid, higher than pre-pandemic levels, which supports the bank's business model [12] - Investment in the construction sector is expected to rise slowly, with public investment beginning to increase [14][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The bank is focusing on increasing market share through active customer growth and digitization of processes [4][5] - A revision of the bank's strategy is underway, with plans to present it on November 19, emphasizing improved customer service and reduced reliance on physical branches [51][52] - The bank aims to enhance private banking services and mutual fund sales while maintaining a conservative approach to risk [54] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while corporate lending is facing challenges, there is optimism for a rebound in the second half of the year [63] - The bank is prepared for potential impacts from interest rate changes, with a belief that their sensitivity to these changes is low due to effective risk management [46][47] - The outlook for mortgage lending remains positive, despite demographic challenges, with a significant demand for residential properties still expected [60][61] Other Important Information - The bank's interest margin is stable despite fluctuations in interest rates, supported by effective management of interest rate risk [34][33] - The bank is actively participating in discussions for a model mortgage loan contract to enhance consumer protection and simplify processes [69][71] Q&A Session Summary Question: Future evolution of profitability of interest assets - Management refrained from commenting on forward-looking data but acknowledged that lower interest rates would impact net profit sensitivity [46][47] Question: Impact of obligatory provision on performance - Expected impact on the banking sector is between PLN 1.5 billion and PLN 2 billion, proportional to each bank's market share [48] Question: Interest in fixed-rate mortgage loans - The share of fixed-rate loans has decreased from 80% to 60%, as customers prefer floating rates amid declining interest expectations [49][50] Question: Strategic priorities for the near future - A revised strategy will be presented on November 19, focusing on customer service improvements and operational efficiency [51][52] Question: Improvement in derivatives and FX - The growth in derivatives and FX was attributed to market volatility and effective trading management [56] Question: Cost of hedging remaining flat - The impact of hedging on financial performance should be analyzed over a longer time perspective rather than quarterly [57] Question: Mortgage loans as a fundamental product - The bank views mortgage loans as essential and plans to continue offering them despite market challenges [59][60]
ING Groep(ING) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-31 08:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bank reported a net profit of PLN 1,035 million, representing an 18% year-on-year growth for Q2 2025, and a 10% growth year-on-year for the first six months [26] - The cost of risk decreased by 39% year-on-year, indicating improved risk management and lower provisions [27][39] - The total assets and liabilities showed consistent growth across all segments, contributing positively to the net result [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail customer base increased by nearly 80,000 in Q2, with a total annual increase of 155,000 clients [3][4] - Mortgage loans reached a total value of €5 billion in Q2, with a market share of 21% for new production [5][6] - Cash loans grew by 13% year-on-year, marking one of the best quarters in the bank's history [6] - Corporate loans saw a modest growth of 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 3% year-on-year, with a notable increase in loans to SMEs [7][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Polish economy is projected to grow by 3.5% in 2025, outperforming regional neighbors [10][11] - Household savings rates in Poland are solid, higher than pre-pandemic levels, which supports the bank's business model [12][13] - The bank's market share in mortgage loans is strong, but competition from alternative funding sources is impacting corporate lending margins [8][25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The bank is focused on increasing market share through real growth based on active customers, emphasizing the importance of customer engagement [4] - A revision of the bank's strategy is underway, with plans to enhance customer service and reduce reliance on physical branches [52][53] - The bank aims to improve its private banking services and mutual fund offerings, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic approach to growth [54][55] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the growth potential in the retail segment, despite challenges in corporate lending due to competitive pressures [25][66] - The bank anticipates a rebound in corporate lending, supported by public sector investments and lower interest rates [22][25] - Inflation is expected to stabilize around 2.8%, which may influence interest rate sensitivity and profitability [19][20] Other Important Information - The bank's cost-to-deposit ratio improved to 76.3%, one of the highest in the sector [35] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains stable at 3.9%, below the sector average, indicating strong asset quality [41][42] - Capital adequacy ratio stands at 15.66%, reflecting a solid financial position despite recent loan sales [44] Q&A Session Summary Question: Future evolution of profitability of interest assets - Management refrained from commenting on forward-looking profitability but noted that lower interest rates would impact net profit sensitivity [46][47] Question: Impact of obligatory provision on performance - The expected impact on the banking sector is between PLN 1.5 billion and PLN 2 billion, proportional to each bank's market share [48] Question: Interest in fixed-rate mortgage loans - The share of fixed-rate loans has decreased from 80% to 60%, as customers prefer floating rates amid declining interest expectations [49][50] Question: Strategic priorities for the near future - A revised strategy will be presented on November 19, focusing on customer service improvements and private banking initiatives [51][52] Question: Improvement in derivatives and FX - The growth in derivatives and FX was attributed to effective management and market volatility, leading to a 95% increase [56] Question: Cost of hedging and its impact - The cost of hedging remained flat despite rate reductions, with a focus on long-term analysis rather than short-term quarterly impacts [57][58] Question: Mortgage loans as a fundamental product - Management affirmed the importance of mortgage loans, citing ongoing demand despite demographic challenges [60][61] Question: Corporate lending margins and future expectations - Management expressed hope for a pickup in corporate lending in the second half of the year, influenced by regulatory factors and market conditions [62][66]