Megan, thank you for bringing us up to speed there. Appreciate it. >> Meantime, let's stick with this heightened uncertainty regarding tariffs.Joining us this morning is the former U.S. Commerce secretary and CNBC contributor Carlos Gutierrez. Mr. . Secretary good to have you back.Thanks for joining us. >> Good to see you. Thank you.>> I know you think July is going to be important and interesting, but you sort of have a sense as to where you think we're going to wind up, don't you. >> Yeah. I think eventua ...

The overall combination of Trump’s various tariffs will balance out to an 18% effective tariff rate on U.S. consumers—assuming the announced tariffs take and stay in effect—which the analysis notes would be the highest effective tariff rate since 1934. https://t.co/0sDRCHy7SD https://t.co/LXMavhCK0S ...

There's a metaphysical menagerie that stalks Trump's tariffs, says @johnauthers, starting with a famous cat in a box (via @opinion) https://t.co/uoHP9ayJRH ...

Emerging Asian currencies fell after President Donald Trump signaled he is eyeing blanket tariffs of 15% to 20% on most of America’s trading partners https://t.co/WJP312ofD8 ...

Trade & Tariffs - The Trump administration is considering imposing a 35% tariff on goods from Canada [1] - The administration has published 23 letters and announced zero new trade deals [2] - Trump plans to impose blanket tariffs of 15% or 20% on all remaining countries [2] - A 10% unilateral tariff on all imported goods would be four times the average tariff today [3] - The tariffs are a tax, and American importers, businesses, and consumers pay almost all of that [3] - A 20% tariff rate on goods coming over the border will be higher than the inflation rate at its worst [12] - Republicans are standing by Trump's method to bring countries to the negotiating table [15] Russia & Ukraine - The US is resuming deliveries of some weapons to Ukraine [5] - Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Russia's foreign minister and exchanged new ideas about how to end the war [5][6] - Russia launched a massive attack on Kyiv, with over 400 drones and missiles [6] - House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thun are prepared to move forward with new sanctions on Russia [7] - Trump will have a major statement on Russia come Monday [7] - Legislation from Senator Graham and Blumenthal has 80 senators already signed on to it [31] Birthright Citizenship - A judge blocked Trump's birthright citizenship order restricting it once again [33] - The ACLU created a class action lawsuit, and the judge certified this class [34] - The judge agreed that birthright citizenship is part of the constitution and is applying it across the country using this class action [35]

Tariff Impact & Mitigation - The company is competitively positioned regarding tariffs, with 60% of its business being international [1] - Tariff assumptions in guidance include 30% from China and 10% from the rest of the world, but exposure to China is minimal [2] - Net tariff impact is estimated at approximately 20 basis points, translating to a couple of pennies on EPS [2] - Mitigation strategies involve leveraging long-standing vendor relationships and increased volume due to business growth [3] - The company is focusing on full-price selling and innovative products to reduce the need for promotions [3][4] Cost Management - The company is also managing its own costs to protect consumers and maintain price points [4]

Economic & Political Analysis - The political climate surrounding capitalism, particularly concerns about a rigged system, is increasingly important [1] - The Republican and Democratic political classes are perceived as not adequately considering the flow of resources through the lens of interest rates and tax policy [2] - The MAGA movement is viewed as an understandable but counterproductive response to exploitation, while the left's response is also seen as counterproductive for not addressing the actual flow of resources [5][6] Market & Trade Dynamics - The bond market's reaction to potential extreme tariffs from the US administration corrected the situation, leading to an expectation of only 5-10% reciprocal tariffs [9][10][12] - The stock market has largely priced in the belief that extreme tariffs will not be levied, rendering the trade theatrics irrelevant [14][15] - The US president's approach to addressing labor market and trade policy dysfunction is considered unproductive due to the disruption it creates [16][17] Capitalism & Risk - True capitalism requires those with capital to retain the risk, but the current system often shifts risk to others, benefiting the wealthiest individuals [2] - A correction in tax and interest rate policy is needed to address the culture of shifting risk away from individuals to an institutional level [4]

That's exactly what's happening. People are frontloading right now. However, they're looking for other ways to source goods in closer countries and territories, especially in America.But the challenge with that is a lot of the domestic manufacturers themselves are raising their price. And now you're going to be caught on the side of, you know, if you are uh importing it or you're going to be caught domestically. So, no matter what, it's a hit.And who's going to pay for the hit. going to be the consumer beca ...

US Politics & Trade - Americans' opinions on tariffs are being monitored [1] - The rationale behind Donald Trump's 50% levy on Brazil is unusual [1] Public Health - Nearly 1,300 measles cases have been confirmed in 2025, according to the CDC [1]

Tariffs and Margin Pressure - Margin pressure from tariffs is expected to increase, creating uncertainty for retailers, manufacturers, and consumers regarding pricing and spending [1][2] - Frontloading is occurring, but domestic manufacturers are also raising prices, creating a dilemma for businesses [3] - The cost of tariffs will ultimately be passed on to the consumer [4] Supply Chain Strategies - Companies should consider absorption, deferral, pricing terms, cost engineering, and alternative supply chains to address tariffs [6] - Alternative supply chains require careful consideration of materials, output, resources, technology, and costs [7] - Africa and South America present potential opportunities for alternative supply chains [8][9] - Erratic supply chain decisions can disrupt a business; a gradual, accommodating approach is recommended [10][11] Retail and Consumer Behavior - Consumer retail is facing uncertainty, with retailers unsure of their future direction [15] - Trade shows are shrinking, indicating a shift towards live selling and direct-to-consumer platforms like Amazon and TikTok [15][16] - The focus is on acquiring new customers, upselling to existing ones, and increasing purchase frequency [16] Holiday Season Impact - Holiday inventory is expected to be unaffected by the tariffs at the moment [12][14] - Businesses should not become complacent and should continue to develop alternative strategies [14]