Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of a Fed rate cut in January has decreased significantly, dropping from 28.8% to 13.3% [1]

Uruguay’s central bank surprised investors with a half-point reduction in borrowing costs that left the benchmark interest rate at 7.5% after months of below-target inflation. https://t.co/gvlWLZFp2b ...

Economic Indicators - US industrial production in November fell by -0.1% month-over-month, which was weaker than market expectations of +0.1% [1] - Manufacturing production in November decreased by -0.4% month-over-month, also below expectations of +0.1% [1] - Durable goods orders in October fell by -2.2% month-over-month, worse than the expected decline of -1.5% [2] - Core capital goods orders in October rose by +0.5% month-over-month, slightly above expectations of +0.3% [2] - The Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index for December fell to -16.8, lower than the expected rise to -15.0 [3] - The US consumer confidence index for December decreased by -3.8 points to 89.1, below the expected level of 91.0 [3] GDP and Inflation - The US Q3 real GDP rose by +4.3% quarter-over-quarter annualized, surpassing expectations of +3.3% [4] - The Q3 GDP Price Index increased by +3.8% quarter-over-quarter annualized, significantly above expectations of +2.7% [4] - The Q3 core PCE Price Index rose by +2.9% quarter-over-quarter annualized, in line with expectations [4] Currency and Monetary Policy - The dollar is under pressure due to the Fed's liquidity boost, with $40 billion monthly purchases of T-bills starting in mid-December [5] - The dollar index (DXY) fell by -0.22%, despite a stronger-than-expected GDP report [7] - The FOMC is expected to cut interest rates by about -50 basis points in 2026, while the Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise rates by +25 basis points [6] Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices increased, supported by strong central bank demand and geopolitical risks [12][14] - The PBOC's gold reserves rose by +30,000 ounces to 74.1 million troy ounces in November, marking the thirteenth consecutive month of increases [14] - Silver inventories in Shanghai fell to 519,000 kilograms, the lowest level in 10 years, contributing to price support [15]

Mexico’s annual inflation slowed earlier this month, supporting the central bank’s latest decision to extend its cycle of interest rate cuts https://t.co/gxm1dPC4pV ...

improve your skin at omnilux >> WELCOME BACK. TWO OF THE MOST ANTICIPATED QUESTIONS OF 2026 ARE WHO WILL BE THE NEXT FED CHAIRMAN, AND HOW MANY TIMES WILL THEY CUT RATES FOR SOME CLUES, LET'S WELCOME IN RICHARD FISHER. HE'S THE FORMER DALLAS FED PRESIDENT, NOW A SENIOR ADVISOR AT JEFFERIES.IT'S GOOD TO SEE YOU. WELCOME BACK. >> THANK YOU.AND HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO YOU AND EVERYBODY AT CNBC. >> WE APPRECIATE YOU. THANK YOU.ALL RIGHT. WOULD YOU CUT RATES IN 26 IF YOU HAD THE VOTE. >> IT DEPENDS ON WHAT THE NUMBERS ...

Paraguay’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 6%, reiterating that inflation will converge with its target in 2026. https://t.co/oxf0bwVTQm ...

Core Viewpoint - The Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH) is at a pivotal moment as it awaits favorable interest rate changes, with the potential for real estate to shift from a defensive to an offensive growth mode by 2026 [1][2]. Interest Rate Impact - The trajectory of SCHH is heavily influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield, which competes with REIT dividends for investor capital. A decline in Treasury yields to the 3.0% to 3.5% range could make REITs more attractive [2]. - Lower long-term interest rates lead to cap rate compression, increasing property values as the discount rate for future cash flows decreases. This is particularly beneficial for SCHH, which includes industrial REITs like Prologis [3]. Commercial Real Estate Maturity Wall - In 2026, approximately $162 billion in commercial real estate loans will mature, a 56% increase from $104 billion in 2025. The refinancing environment will be crucial for SCHH, as high rates could lead to dividend cuts [4]. Portfolio Composition - SCHH's portfolio consists of 165 holdings, with Welltower being the largest at 9.84%, which has seen over a 50% increase year-to-date. This indicates resilience in healthcare REITs despite challenging rate conditions [6]. - The performance of SCHH in 2026 will depend on which subsectors, such as infrastructure and industrial properties, gain momentum. Infrastructure REITs make up about 18% of the portfolio, while industrial and logistics properties account for 15% [7]. Alternative Investment Options - The Fidelity MSCI Real Estate Index ETF (FREL) offers a similar investment strategy with a slightly higher expense ratio but includes real estate services companies, which could benefit from improved property sales in 2026 [8]. Key Signals for Future Performance - The critical indicators for SCHH's performance over the next year include whether the 10-year Treasury yield falls below 4% and the ability of its industrial and healthcare REIT holdings to maintain occupancy and rental growth amid refinancing challenges [9].

Group 1 - Clearwater Analytics is being taken private, indicating a significant shift in its corporate structure and potential for future growth opportunities [1] - Disney's latest Avatar film has topped the box office, reflecting strong consumer interest and potential revenue generation for the company [1]

ECB’s Simkus Says Interest-Rate Decisions ‘Rather Clear’ https://t.co/3H1kduQiBG ...

Japanese government bonds fell on Monday, extending their declines after the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to the highest level in 30 years https://t.co/6Vu8gROYM5 ...