Economists say that President Trump's big, beautiful tax bill comes with a $3 trillion price tag over the next few months. But the White House says the opposite is true. So here to break down the disconnect, we've got Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance, Ben Worshko.Ben, what have you been able to dig into with the details here. Yeah. Yeah, Brad.So this is a divide that we've seen between the White House and independent economist. Treasury Secretary Besson was on Capitol Hill yesterday and you saw th ...

Joining us now to extend the conversation, I'm pleased to say, is David Kelly of Jp morgan Asset Management. David, I just want your initial reaction to the data we got about 10 minutes ago. Was that a surprise to you, sir.I'm not too much of a surprise. As we were going into this into this print, we were looking at a lot of the different industries. And there's a soggy miss in the economy, which is really preventing prices from going up.I mean, one of the things that I was struck by was that both airline f ...

Summary of M&T Bank Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: M&T Bank - **Event**: Sixteenth Annual Morgan Stanley US Financial Conference Key Industry Insights - **Economic Environment**: - Positive sentiment among customers regarding investments and acquisitions despite a pause in activity this quarter [4][5] - Anticipation of a strong second half of 2025 due to potential new tax legislation and progress on tariffs [5] Financial Performance - **Loan Growth**: - Modest loan growth expected, with a focus on consumer portfolios, particularly in auto, RV, and marine sectors [12][13] - Commercial real estate (CRE) concentration reduced to about 136%, with expectations for growth by the end of the year [15][17] - **Net Interest Income (NII)**: - NII is on track with expectations, driven by loan growth and stable margins [10][37] - Current NIM at approximately 3.66, with potential to rise above 3.70 depending on loan growth and yield environment [37][40] Credit Quality - **Credit Monitoring**: - Continuous monitoring of credit quality with a focus on retail, trade, manufacturing, and construction sectors [6][61] - Positive trends in upgrades and payoffs in the CRE portfolio, with expectations for criticized loans to decline [59][61] Deposits and Funding - **Deposit Trends**: - Strong growth in consumer deposits and business banking, with a rebound from seasonal outflows [31][32] - ICS deposits are variable but contribute positively when they come in [33] - **Deposit Costs**: - Deposit costs expected to remain flat, with a disciplined approach to pricing and promotions [34][35] Fee Income and Growth Opportunities - **Fee Income**: - Fee income is expected to grow, particularly in wealth management, mortgage, and treasury management [46][49] - Wealth management is seen as a significant growth area, with a focus on ultra-high-net-worth and affluent segments [50][51] Strategic Investments and Expenses - **Strategic Projects**: - Seven key strategic projects underway, with three nearing completion, aimed at enhancing operational efficiency [53][54] - Overall expenses are expected to grow at a modest rate of 2-3%, maintaining positive operating leverage [56] Capital Management - **Capital Position**: - Strong capital position with a CET1 ratio of 11.5%, targeting 11% in the near future [62][63] - Share repurchase program expected to exceed $2 billion this year [65] Regulatory Environment - **Regulatory Changes**: - Support for regulatory changes focusing on real risks such as credit, interest rate, and liquidity risks [80][81] - Anticipation of more balanced supervision under new leadership in the regulatory space [81] Conclusion - M&T Bank is positioned for growth with a focus on customer relationships, strategic investments, and maintaining a strong capital position while navigating a competitive and evolving regulatory landscape.

Legislative & Policy Focus - The Senate Commerce Committee is working to pass a bill to deliver on promises made to the American people, including securing the border, rebuilding the military, and extending the 2017 tax cuts [2][3] - The bill includes a $12.5 billion investment in modernizing air traffic control systems, addressing outdated equipment and embracing modern technology like GPS [8][9][10] - The Commerce Committee is considering a tweak to the moratorium on state aid laws, tying it to the federal broadband expansion program, which may face challenges before the parliamentarian [4][5] - The senator advocates for technology decisions based on merit, citing the $42 billion broadband program that failed to connect a single home due to dislike of StarLink [11][12] Economic Impact & Investment - The senator introduced a provision to create an investment account for every newborn child in America, with an initial $1,000 and the potential for $5,000 annual contributions [21] - Assuming historical S&P 500 growth rates, a child with this account could have $170,000 by age 18 and $700,000 by age 35 [22] - Failure to act by December 31st would result in an automatic $4 trillion tax increase, negatively impacting working families and small businesses [16] Social & Political Issues - The senator criticizes Democrat politicians for not supporting law enforcement and for siding with illegal immigrants and violent criminals [28] - The senator supports the federal government's authority to enforce federal law, drawing parallels to the civil rights movement [30] - The senator believes birthright citizenship encourages illegal immigration and has long advocated for changing that policy [19]

The US – and the world – seems to have turned the page on tariffs. It now seems likely that total tariffs on US imports will settle between 14-17%: somewhere between 10-30% on China, 10% "reciprocal" tariffs on the rest of the world, and some sectoral tariffs (with exemptions). This is not a small rise relative to the start of the year. But it is a far cry from the situation just a week ago, when there was a virtual trade embargo between the world's two largest economies. It's time for investors to turn the ...