Breaking: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled greater concern about the job market outlook in a speech that opened the door for the central bank to entertain a rate cut next month https://t.co/8olLDfajHs ...

Market Expectations & Fed Policy - The market anticipates a potential rate cut, with initial euphoria possibly waning due to comments from a Fed president and resilient PMI data [2] - Expectations for a September rate cut have decreased to approximately 70% [3] - The market is awaiting Chair Powell's speech at 10:00 a m Eastern time for clarity on the Fed's stance, particularly regarding the labor market and inflation [1][3][4] - The investor community is particularly interested in whether the Fed will prioritize the jobs market over inflation, considering tariff-related price increases as potentially "transitory" [7] Economic Data & Analysis - Despite firming inflation, significant price increases expected from initial tariff deals have not materialized [6] - There have been massive revisions to jobs reports, including a large yearly revision of nearly 1 million jobs earlier in the year [6] - Carson Group's research indicates that historically, if the Fed cuts rates in September, the market tends to be down 1% the following month but up almost 13% the following year [9] Investment Strategies & Recommendations - The analysis suggests diversifying risk portfolios globally, by sector, and by factor, with a potential shift towards value investing [11] - Gold is suggested as a potential hedge against a weakening US dollar, especially as the Fed potentially enters a second phase of easing with GDP running at approximately 2% [12][14] - The expectation is for the Fed to implement a 25 basis points cut, primarily influenced by the labor market [11] Future Outlook - The key question is whether the market's expectation of two rate cuts by 2025 will be met or exceeded [10] - The US debt situation and its impact on the dollar's strength are significant factors influencing investment decisions [13]

What are your what are your expectations. I think all all day long we're going to talk about JP Pal and what people expect. What are your expectations for what J Pal has to say and then how does the market react.I think uh I I think uh and I thought this for quite some time. I don't expect any big uh news out of JPAL today. I think if anything uh they're going to hold back any of that good news uh for the meeting next month, right.Because look uh the markets are expecting hoping uh for a rate cut in the nex ...

🇺🇸 TODAY: Fed Chair Powell will speak at 10:00 A.M. ET for the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.Will he talk about a potential rate cut? https://t.co/pm3qmUAkPp ...

Market Overview - The market has been selling off, with some altcoins down over 20% [2] - Bitcoin and Ethereum need to regain strength for the market to bounce [3][4] - The overall market cap is at $385 trillion [5] - The Bitcoin fear and greed index is at 46, indicating fearful levels [6] Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Impact - The Fed rate cut could be a catalyst to impulse the market out of the lows [4][5] - Retail investors believe there's a 57% chance of a Fed rate cut in September [18] - CME Group indicates a 753% chance of a rate cut in September, 875% in October, and 967% in December [20] - When the Fed cuts interest rates near stock market all-time highs, the S&P 500 has historically finished higher over the next 12 months [22] - Lower interest rates could cause a surge across markets, including real estate [25][26] Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis - Bitcoin needs to maintain daily closes over $1124 thousand [11] - A daily close over $115 thousand for Bitcoin would signal a bottom, targeting $1175 thousand next [12][13] - Ethereum is following Bitcoin, needing a 4-hour close over $44 thousand [15][16] Jerome Powell's Speech - Jerome Powell's speech is a major focus, providing insight into the Fed's next move [17][19] - The market's reaction to the speech will indicate whether a rate cut in September is expected [30] - Historically, the stock market's performance around Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speeches has varied [27][28]

So was you hate being wrong sitting here 87% chance last night now down to 73%. Does the stock not bond does the stock market care about a rate cut. >> I think so.I you know there was this time last year when the S&P was about a,000 points lower than we are now. The market was pricing in six rate cuts in 2025. Here we are now a,000 points higher.We're talking about two maybe three. So I would say all of that good news in terms of just rate cuts are priced in. So the short answer is absolutely.The market wil ...

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve (FED) data does not support a rate cut [1] Economic Outlook - Cleveland Fed President Hammack indicates no justification for lowering interest rates based on current economic data [1]

Federal Reserve Policy - The market sell-off coincides with rising risk of no rate cut [1] - Attention is focused on the labor market as a key factor influencing the Fed's decisions, despite earlier FOMC minutes emphasizing inflation [2][3][5] - A 50 basis points rate cut is unlikely, with the probability of a 25 basis points cut decreasing to 77% from nearly 100% [4] - The Fed previously cut rates aggressively based on perceived labor market weakness [6] Labor Market - A weak July labor market report could trigger the Fed to act, even without inflation reaching the target [3] - The Fed's dual mandate focuses on maintaining stable prices and full employment [7] Tariffs and Consumer Spending - Retailers report mixed impacts from tariffs, with some initially absorbing costs but later changing their approach [9][10] - The impact of tariffs is difficult to assess due to ongoing announcements, delays, and rate adjustments [10] - Inflation data and company reports show a bifurcated impact, with some companies benefiting from front-run ordering and inventory building [11]

&& now that tiny bump in positive price action has gone to the downside.Market is NOT liking the lack of certainty on a rate cut&& if anything is now shifting toward NO CUT at all for September. ...

Bostic says one Fed rate cut likely in 2025 but warns labor market trends bear watching https://t.co/QLVsAAfLxb ...