- Incoming data suggests that the economy remains solid. Following growth of 2.5% last year, GDP was reported to have edged down in the first quarter, reflecting swings in net exports that were driven by businesses bringing in imports ahead of potential tariffs. Surveys of households and businesses, however, reported decline in settlement sentiment in recent months, and elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook, largely reflecting trade policy concerns.It remains to be seen how these developments migh ...

are finding ways to mitigate some of the impact on consumers. >> Let's get reaction from our guest, Charles Schwab senior investment strategist Kevin Gordon. Kevin, good to have you here.So you heard Daly saying things look good. Now, you've also talked in the past about the impact policy uncertainty is having on business confidence. How do you see that playing out in the markets for the rest of the summer.>> Yeah. Well, so far I mean the uncertainty has been more on the, you know, survey based side of thin ...

Market Trends & Analysis - The dollar index has been in a bear market since peaking on January 1st at 110 and February 3rd at 10975, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows [2] - Technically, the dollar index needs to surpass 9936 to establish a neutral trend, with potential resistance around 100 [2] - Political uncertainty, tariff headlines, and speculation of US authorities favoring a weaker currency are fueling a rotation away from the dollar [3] Currency Composition & Reserve Rotation - The dollar's composition in foreign exchange reserves has decreased from approximately 71% in 2001 to about 57% in 2025 [4][5] - Central banks are rotating out of the dollar due to concerns about the unsustainable US fiscal trajectory, despite low default risk [5] - Central banks are diversifying their reserves by adding gold and other asset classes [6] Impact Factors & Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's uncertainty regarding spending measures and geopolitical factors necessitates holding higher rates for longer [7] - Uncertainty surrounding the "big beautiful bill," Middle East conflict, and tariffs are holding back the dollar's rally [7] - Clarity on these issues is needed for the dollar index to potentially resume its rally [7]

You know, from our standpoint, what I can say is that the the US economy is in solid shape. Inflation has come down. The unemployment rate remains at 4.2%.As I mentioned, real wages are moving up. It's a it's a good uh job creation is at a healthy level. Unemployment, again, as I said, low labor force participation in a good place.So, and what we're waiting for to reduce rates is is to understand what will happen with with really the tariff inflation. And uh there's a lot of uncertainty about that. Every fo ...

lower today after the disappointing retail sales number. And as investors digest the latest developments in the Middle East, my next guest warns it might not even be geopolitics or the hard data that will be the next hurdle for stocks could be earnings season. Joining me now is Ironside Macroeconomics director of research Barry Knapp.And it's great to have you here on set. Welcome. >> Glad to be here.>> So many things I mean how are you discounting all of these disparate events from the Middle East drama to ...

Economic Outlook - The most recent data suggests a continuation of a soft landing, which is good news for the economy [2] - The economy was in a good position to absorb the stagflationary shock from tariffs, and the Fed was in a restrictive position [3] - Concerns exist regarding oil prices potentially offsetting disinflation in other parts of the economy [5] Tariffs and Inflation - Evidence of tariffs impacting inflation is present in recent reports, with appliances and commodity goods prices increasing [4] - $70 billion of tariffs have been collected, indicating that someone is bearing the cost [4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is uncertain, with a divided outlook on whether it will be a one-off event or cause broader inflation [6] Federal Reserve Policy - The Fed is likely to lower rates in the coming months [1] - The Fed should wait and see before cutting rates, despite pressure, to avoid cutting into a bigger inflation problem [6] - The Fed is being cautious, and the downside of waiting is small [7] - Financial markets will likely price in easing before the Fed delivers it if stagnation worsens [8] - The Fed's transparency provides a release valve against being behind the curve, as markets will front-run easing [9]

I think we're going to accomplish a lot and I expect to and I think our primary focus will be trade and trade with Canada and I'm sure we can work something out. I'm a tariff person. I've always been a tariff.It's simple. It's easy. It's precise and it just goes very quickly. ...

US Economy Resilience - US economy is durable and can withstand a 15% effective tariff [1] - US economy is performing well, contrary to recession predictions [2] Market Sentiment - Markets are awaiting news regarding tariffs on China and Europe to stabilize [2] - Investors are holding a significant amount of cash, waiting for market clarity [2] - Abundance of cash is driving equity market increases [3]

Trump Claims ‘Great And Important’ Tariff Court Win: Here’s Why That’s Wrong https://t.co/aluHjjB5OS ...

Tax & Healthcare Policy Revisions - Senate Republicans are expected to propose revisions to key tax and healthcare policies, aiming for completion by July 4th [1] - Revisions may include adjustments to Medicaid savings (slowing growth, not cuts), discussions on SALT (State and Local Tax) deductions, and the Inflation Reduction Act [4] Economic Growth & Tax Rates - Locking in lower tax rates permanently, including low corporate tax, is crucial for job creation and innovation [7] - Fully restoring key business provisions (expensing, R&D, interest deductibility) and making the small business Main Street tax deduction of 20% permanent are seen as pro-growth measures [7] Deficit & Revenue - Estimates suggest the bill could add $2.5 trillion (Congressional Budget Office estimate) to the US deficit over a decade [8][9] - Growth can significantly impact revenue, as seen in 2017 when lowering the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% resulted in higher revenue collection than projected [10] Tariff Policy & Trade - The speaker is generally not in favor of tariffs, except as a remedy for unfair trade practices, as they can drive up costs, slow the economy, and invite retaliation [14] - Anchoring crucial security-critical supply lines in the US and running them through reliable trading partners is important [15] - Canada and Mexico buy five times more "Made in America" products than China, highlighting the importance of positive trade relationships with these countries [17] Foreign Investment - Republicans generally believe in the growth and importance of foreign direct investment, which constitutes a sixth of the US economy [19] - A provision was added to deter OECD countries from implementing global minimum tax pillar 2, which could weaken US growth incentives and sovereignty over tax law [21]